巨型贸易协定对中国经济的影响——基于TPP、TTIP与RCEP的模拟比较分析

发布时间：2018-06-19 20:25

本文选题：TPP、TTIP与RCEP + 经济增长　；参考：《华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2017年04期

【摘要】：基于中国与TPP、TTIP和RCEP近年来贸易投资的统计分析,本文运用GTAP模型,从经济总量、对外贸易、福利和产业产出四个方面模拟比较TPP、TTIP和RCEP最终建成后对中国经济的可能影响。结果表明:当TPP和TTIP都建成的情况下,损害了中国等非成员国的利益,产生外部不经济效应;而当RCEP也建成的情况下,其能在一定程度上削弱TPP和TTIP的消极效应影响,从而驱动RCEP成员特别是中国和韩国的经济增长;在此基础上,包括中国的TPP、TTIP和RCEP都建成的情况下,中国获得的经济效应最显著;当且仅当RCEP建成的情况下,包括中国在内的RCEP绝大多数成员国获益;整体而言,TPP、TTIP和RCEP最终建立对中国汽车、其他工业制品和服务等产业产出造成负面冲击。最后,从区域经济一体化的角度提出促进中国经济增长的建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the statistical analysis of trade and investment between China and TPPU TTIP and RCEP in recent years, this paper uses the GTAP model to simulate and compare the possible effects of TPP TTIP and RCEP on China's economy from four aspects: total economic volume, foreign trade, welfare and industrial output. The results show that when the TPP and TTIP are built, the interests of China and other non-member countries are damaged and the external uneconomic effects are produced, but when RCEP is also built, it can weaken the negative effects of TPP and TTIP to some extent. Thus driving the economic growth of RCEP members, especially China and South Korea; on this basis, with the establishment of TPPTTIP and RCEP in China, China has the most significant economic effects; if and only if the RCEP is built, The vast majority of RCEP members, including China, benefited; overall, TPPTTIP and RCEP eventually created a negative impact on China's auto, other industrial products and services output. Finally, from the angle of regional economic integration, the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote China's economic growth.
【作者单位】：东南大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“‘一带一路’战略背景下我国应对TPP、TTIP与RCEP的策略研究”(16AJL010)
【分类号】：F124;F744

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