中国FDI时空演变特征及其影响机制研究

发布时间：2018-07-02 15:22

本文选题：FDI + 时空演变　；参考：《西北大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：外商直接投资(FDI)是跨国公司的投资需求与东道国社会经济及政策制度等环境相互契合的结果,是推动区域经济增长的重要动力。我国利用外资规模不断扩大,但空间分布不均衡,加剧了经济社会发展的区域差距。合理利用外资,优化外资利用空间格局对促进、协调区域经济发展具有重要意义。本文利用长时间序列的省域经济单元数据,从多个角度分析FDI的时空演变特征,引入合同签订FDI,构建指标模型分析中国协议外资实现能力的时空变化,并结合空间自相关分析、地理集中指数分析等空间分析方法对中国FDI空间自相关性和集中程度进行定量化表征,进而分析其影响机制,在此基础上构建空间分析模型,通过OLS模型和地理加权回归模型对1985～2011年中国FDI时空演变的影响因素进行实证检验,对比分析1998年和2011年各变量影响作用的变化,并得到提高外资利用水平、优化FDI空间格局和促进区域经济增长的启示。主要结论有： (1)中国利用外资历程呈现明显的阶段性和差异性,可以分为起步与探索阶段(1979～1991)、快速成长阶段(1992～1999)、稳定增长阶段(2000至今)三个阶段：FDI经历了由低水平徘徊、快速增长到稳定增长的过程；项目数量起伏较大,项目平均金额由低到高阶段性增长；行业分布由一般加工行业,转向以第二产业为主,再到第三产业快速增长并赶超第二产业；来源地从以港澳台为主,转向以亚洲为主,辐射欧美等大洲的态势,香港是我国最重要的FDI来源地。差异性：合同签订FDI波动明显,实际利用FDI呈阶梯增长；实际利用FDI与合同签订FDI的差距甚大且不断扩大；合同签订FDI的增长速度远超实际利用FDI。 (2)时序特征：中国各省FDI持续增长,FDI省域分布的均衡性提高；三大区域中,东部FDI比重逐渐降低,中西部FDI的份额不断增长,但其绝对值与东部差距很大,且渐趋扩大。空间演变特征：中国FDI空间均衡程度提高,多中心化趋势明显；中国合同FDI实现率的空间差异较大,总体实现能力较低；中国FDI的地理集中指数不断下降,地域集中性在逐渐减弱；中国FDI的空间演变过程存在较强的空间自相关性和异质性,更多的省份成为FDI热点区域。 (3)中国FDI的时空演变主要受政策、市场、成本、社会环境、集聚等方面因素的影响。通过OLS和GWR分析,发现累积效应、经济基础、基础设施水平、人力成本、政策环境、商业环境对FDI时空演变的影响显著。各变量的影响具有显著的空间异质性且随时间变化,主要表现在：一是变量作用程度的变化,GDP、交通线路密度、平均工资、第三产业比重、国家级经开区和经济特区数量对FDI变化的影响变大,技术交易、累计FDI的影响力有所下降,交通线路密度对FDI的影响作用最显著；‘二是变量作用在空间上的差异与变化,同一变量的影响在空间上差异明显,随观察年份的变化而变化,且有扩大的趋势。 (4)优化中国FDI空间格局以及促进区域经济发展的启示：一是提高合同FDI实现率；二是改善区域投资环境；三是统筹区域发展；四是理性引资。
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment (FDI) is the result of the mutual agreement between the investment demand of the multinational corporation and the environment of the host country, the social economy and the policy system. It is an important driving force to promote the regional economic growth. The scale of the utilization of foreign capital is expanding, but the spatial distribution is uneven, which has intensified the regional gap of economic and social development. The utilization of spatial pattern is of great significance for promoting and coordinating regional economic development.
Using the provincial economic unit data of long time series, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of FDI from multiple angles, introduces a contract to sign FDI, constructs an index model to analyze the spatio-temporal change of the realization capability of China's agreement on foreign capital, and combines spatial autocorrelation analysis, geographic concentration index analysis and other spatial analysis methods to the autocorrelation of China's FDI space And the degree of concentration is quantified, and then the influence mechanism is analyzed. On this basis, the spatial analysis model is constructed. Through the OLS model and the geo weighted regression model, the influence factors of the time and space evolution of China's FDI in 1985~2011 years are empirically tested, and the changes of the effects of the variables in 1998 and 2011 are compared and analyzed, and the external factors are improved. The level of capital utilization, the optimization of FDI spatial pattern and the promotion of regional economic growth.
The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) the process of utilizing foreign capital in China shows obvious stages and differences, which can be divided into starting and exploring stages (1979~1991), rapid growth stage (1992~1999) and three stages of stable growth (2000 today): FDI has experienced a process from low level, rapid growth to stable growth; the number of projects fluctuates greatly, and the average gold of the project The volume from low to high stage growth; the industry distribution from the general processing industry, to the second industry, and then to the third industry rapid growth and overtake the second industry; the source from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, to Asia dominated, radiating Europe and the United States and other continents, Hongkong is the most important source of FDI in China. Difference: contract signed FD The fluctuation of I is obvious, and the actual use of FDI is stepped up. The gap between the actual use of FDI and the contract to sign the FDI is very large and expanding; the growth rate of the contract signing FDI is far beyond the actual use of FDI..
(2) timing characteristics: FDI in China's provinces continued to grow, and the equilibrium of FDI provincial distribution increased; in the three major regions, the proportion of Eastern FDI gradually decreased, and the share of the central and Western FDI increased continuously, but its absolute value was far from the East and gradually expanded.
The spatial evolution characteristics: the spatial balance of China's FDI space is improved and the trend of multi centralization is obvious; the spatial difference of the FDI realization rate in China's contract is larger, the overall realization ability is low; the geographical concentration index of the Chinese FDI is declining, the regional concentration is gradually weakening; the spatial evolution process of China's FDI has strong spatial autocorrelation and the spatial autocorrelation. Heterogeneity, more provinces have become FDI hot spots.
(3) the temporal and spatial evolution of FDI in China is mainly influenced by factors such as policy, market, cost, social environment and agglomeration. Through the analysis of OLS and GWR, it is found that cumulative effect, economic foundation, infrastructure level, human cost, policy environment, and commercial environment have significant influence on the temporal and spatial evolution of FDI. The influence of the variables has significant spatial heterogeneity and With the change of time, the main results are as follows: one is the change of variable degree of action, GDP, traffic line density, average wage, the proportion of the third industry, the influence of the national level and the number of special economic zones on the change of FDI, the influence of the accumulative FDI on the technology trading, the influence of the traffic line density on the FDI is the most significant; 'two is the effect of the traffic line density. The difference and change of variables in space, the influence of the same variable is obvious in space, and varies with the change of the year of observation.
(4) to optimize the spatial pattern of China's FDI and to promote the development of regional economy, the first is to improve the FDI implementation rate of the contract; the two is to improve the regional investment environment; three is the overall regional development; four is the rational introduction of capital.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】