塔里木河流域综合治理工程区域经济影响评价

发布时间：2018-07-11 15:45

本文选题：综合治理工程 + 区域经济评价　；参考：《新疆农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：塔里木河流域综合治理工程,其目标是投资107.39亿元,通过一系列措施的实施,例如灌区节水改造、河道治理等,增加塔里木河干流的入水量,合理配置水资源,适度开发利用水资源,为流域社会、经济和环境的协调发展,水资源的可持续利用创造良好的环境。本研究具体分为5部分:第一部分,对本研究的区域经济影响评价的内容和经济结构的概念进行界定。设定本研究区域经济影响评价着重考虑从工程项目实施对当地的社会就业、经济结构两个方面的影响,进行定性和定量的评价;工程对当地经济结构的影响,主要表现对当地国民经济三次产业结构的影响。第二部分,工程概况和实施区的现状分析。讲述塔里木河流域综合治理工程的背景和工程的主要措施以及工程的进展情况,进一步介绍工程实施项目区的概况、自然状况、社会状况、经济状况等情况,分析项目投资的七个流域的数据,对其基本情况:人口、面积、主要作物、林业等情况进行分析;对工程实施的流域经济情况:具体包括其投入产出状况进行分析,包括经济总产值与人均产值(三产)、财政收支状况、农民人均纯收入等指标进行时间序列分析。第三部分,工程实施的项目区的经济影响分析是以典型县案例分析和其它县不完全统计的形式,对典型案例县——阿克苏、尉犁县、沙雅县和34兵团的工程进行了系统的就业统计,并对非案例县进行了不完全统计,以2010和2011年竣工验收的工程为例进行了就业统计;运用专家判断法对塔管局和当地重点部门进行调研,对实施县的水利局、农业局、林业局、畜牧局专家进行访谈和问卷调查,分析工程实施对当地经济结构的影响。第四部分,工程影响的经济结构分析。在界定了工程影响的经济结构概念的基础上,进一步介绍了工程经济结构的评价方法,明确了灰色关联度评价方法的4个步骤,并利用工程投资额和节水量两个指标,分析指标与三次产业的关联度,以及第一产业内农、林、牧、渔业的关联度分析,以此确定工程的实施对地方产业结构的影响。第五部分,结论与建议。根据上面四部分的分析,本研究得出3点结论和3点建议。3点结论具体为:工程的实施总体对地方产业经济有拉动效应;工程的实施对各产业经济发展具有不同程度的影响;工程的实施对地方社会就业有显著的影响。针对本文结论,进一步提出3点建议,即适度增加工程投资,放宽节水量定额限制,促进地方经济发展和农民增收;进一步完善用水制度;建立生态用水补偿机制。
[Abstract]:The goal of the comprehensive control project of the Tarim River Basin is to invest 10.739 billion yuan, and through the implementation of a series of measures, such as irrigation district water-saving transformation, river course management, etc., to increase the inflow of water in the main stream of the Tarim River, and to allocate water resources rationally. The proper exploitation and utilization of water resources will create a good environment for the coordinated development of society, economy and environment in the basin and the sustainable utilization of water resources. This research is divided into five parts: the first part defines the content of the regional economic impact assessment and the concept of economic structure. Setting up the regional economic impact assessment of this study, focusing on the impact of the implementation of the project on local social employment and economic structure, qualitative and quantitative evaluation, the impact of the project on the local economic structure, The main performance of the local national economy three industrial structure of the impact. The second part, the project general situation and the implementation area present situation analysis. The background and main measures of the comprehensive control project in Tarim River Basin and the progress of the project are described. The general situation of the project implementation area, the natural situation, the social situation, the economic situation, etc., are further introduced. To analyze the data of the seven watersheds invested by the project, and to analyze the basic situation: population, area, main crops, forestry and so on; and to analyze the economic situation of the river basin carried out by the project: including its input-output status, It includes economic output value and per capita output value (three output), financial income and expenditure, peasant per capita net income and other indicators of time series analysis. The third part, the economic impact analysis of the project area implemented by the project is in the form of case analysis of typical counties and incomplete statistics of other counties, for typical cases counties-Aksu and Yuli counties. The project of Shaya County and 34th Corps has carried on the systematic employment statistics, and has carried on the incomplete statistics to the non-case county, has carried on the employment statistics with the completion and acceptance of the project in 2010 and 2011 as an example; The expert judgment method was used to investigate the TSA and the local key departments, and the experts of the county water conservancy bureau, agriculture bureau, forestry bureau and animal husbandry bureau were interviewed and investigated to analyze the influence of the project implementation on the local economic structure. The fourth part, the economic structure analysis of engineering impact. On the basis of defining the concept of economic structure of engineering impact, this paper further introduces the evaluation method of engineering economic structure, clarifies the four steps of grey correlation degree evaluation method, and makes use of two indexes of project investment and water saving. This paper analyzes the correlation degree between the index and the three industries, as well as the correlation degree of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in the primary industry, so as to determine the impact of the implementation of the project on the local industrial structure. Part V, conclusions and recommendations. According to the analysis of the above four parts, this study draws three conclusions and three suggestions. 3. Conclusion: the overall implementation of the project has a pull effect on the local industrial economy, the implementation of the project has a different degree of impact on the economic development of each industry; The implementation of the project has a significant impact on local social employment. In view of the conclusion of this paper, three suggestions are put forward, namely, to increase project investment moderately, to relax the limitation of water saving quota, to promote the development of local economy and to increase farmers' income, to further perfect the water use system and to establish the ecological water use compensation mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：新疆农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV882.8;F127

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