调整人口就业年限对养老金平衡的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-26 21:10

【摘要】：人口就业年限与人口预期寿命、劳动强度以及受教育年限密切相关。然而，随着人口预期寿命、受教育年限的不断上升和劳动强度的不断下降，我国人口就业年限近年来并没有做出相应的调整。人口结构变化，养老金缺口不断增大，养老金平衡面临极大挑战背景下，延长人口就业年限已成为必然趋势。退休年龄是决定养老金负担水平的一个基本因素。在平均预期寿命和保障水平一定的情况下，退休年龄提高，平均享用养老金年限就缩短，养老金支付总负担就能降低。目前，调整人口就业年限的趋势主要是针对退休年龄，如延长或弹性延长退休年龄。不同的方案设计因其调整的程度、深度和广度的不同而对养老保险基金平衡产生不同的影响。本文基于现阶段人口老龄化加剧发展这个社会背景，，结合我国人口预期寿命、受教育年限的延长和劳动强度降低等现状，主要从以下几个方面对调整人口就业年限对养老金平衡的影响进行研究：（1）结合我国人口结构、人口寿命、受教育年限等情况，分析调整人口就业年限的影响与意义，并对相关概念进行界定，以及对现有的调整人口就业年限的观点进行分析；（2）国内外调整人口就业年限的比较分析；（3）基于全国31个省市参保人口结构预测，对全国各省市进行聚类分析，从而将31各省市根据聚类结果进行合理的归类划分；（4）通过聚类，选取各类中典型城市进行敏感性分析，通过实证方式研究调整人口就业年限对养老金平衡的影响；（5）基于区域经济发展水平划分各区并进行敏感性分析；（6）针对实证分析结果，提出具体的通过调整人口就业年限破解养老金财务难题的政策建议。本文在力求严格的精算和大量数据的基础上，阐述调整人口就业年限是解决老龄化带来养老金财务困难的有效途径。运用聚类分析和区域经济划分两种方法，基于参保人口结构，养老金收支情况来进行敏感性分析，从而综合研究和人口就业年限调整对养老金平衡的影响，提出在经济水平以及就业市场允许的条件下，进行区域化调整退休年龄、调整女性退休年龄以及多方式调整退休年龄等建议。
[Abstract]:The number of years of employment is closely related to life expectancy, labor intensity and years of education. However, with the increase of life expectancy, the continuous increase of education years and the decrease of labor intensity, the number of years of employment in our country has not been adjusted accordingly in recent years. With the change of population structure and the increasing pension gap, the pension balance is facing a great challenge, so it has become an inevitable trend to extend the number of years of employment of the population. The retirement age is a basic factor in determining the level of pension burden. When the average life expectancy and the level of security are constant, the retirement age is raised, the average period of enjoying pension is shortened, and the total burden of pension payment can be reduced. At present, the trend of adjusting the number of years of employment is mainly aimed at the retirement age, such as extending the retirement age or extending the retirement age flexibly. Different schemes have different effects on pension fund balance because of their adjustment degree, depth and breadth. This paper is based on the current social background of population aging and development, combined with the current situation of life expectancy, the extension of education years and the reduction of labor intensity in China. This paper mainly studies the effects of adjusting the number of years of employment of the population on pension balance from the following aspects: (1) considering the situation of population structure, life span, years of education and so on, this paper analyzes the influence and significance of adjusting the number of years of employment of the population. It also defines the relevant concepts and analyzes the existing viewpoints of adjusting the number of years of employment of the population; (2) the comparative analysis of the number of years of employment of the adjusted population at home and abroad; (3) based on the forecast of the population structure of 31 provinces and cities in China, Through cluster analysis of all provinces and cities in China, 31 provinces and cities are classified according to the clustering results. (4) the sensitivity analysis of typical cities is carried out through clustering. Through the empirical study of the impact of adjusting the number of years of employment on the pension balance; (5) based on the level of regional economic development and sensitivity analysis; (6) empirical analysis results, This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to solve the pension financial problems by adjusting the number of years of employment of the population. On the basis of strict actuarial and large amount of data, this paper expounds that adjusting the number of years of employment of the population is an effective way to solve the financial difficulties caused by aging pension. By means of cluster analysis and regional economic division, based on the structure of insured population and the income and expenditure of pension, the sensitivity analysis is carried out, so as to study comprehensively the influence of population employment years adjustment on pension balance. Under the conditions of economic level and employment market, the author puts forward some suggestions, such as regionalizing retirement age, adjusting female retirement age and adjusting retirement age in many ways.
【学位授予单位】：上海工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F249.2

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