全球空间关联视角下的中国经济增长

发布时间：2018-08-06 08:12

【摘要】：本文利用1995—2011年世界投入产出表,从全球空间关联角度对中国经济增长源泉进行分解,研究发现:(1)分析期间中国经济前向关联度增加同时,后向关联度并没有得到有效提升。考虑到增加值因素之后,中国经济在自身国际分工率上升同时,对外感应度有了大幅度提升;(2)中国经济在对亚洲地区依赖度下降同时,对北美区域经济依赖度有所上升。具体到国家层面而言,分析期间中国经济对美国依存度有所增加,对日本依存度却有所下降;(3)过去10多年来,中国经济高速增长是内、外因素共同作用的结果,全球投入产出结构变化对中国经济带来的正面冲击大多是短期和暂时的,以投资为主的国内最终品生产结构在中等收入阶段将不可持续。最后本文提出了针对性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Using the world input-output table from 1995 to 2011, this paper decomposes the headspring of China's economic growth from the angle of global spatial correlation. It is found that: (1) during the period of analysis, the forward correlation degree of Chinese economy increases and the backward correlation degree is not effectively promoted. After taking into account the added value factor, China's economy has greatly increased its external sensitivity at the same time that its own international division of labor has increased; (2) China's dependence on the Asian region has declined, while the Chinese economy has increased its dependence on the North American regional economy. Specifically, at the national level, during the period of analysis, China's economic dependence on the United States has increased, but its dependence on Japan has declined; (3) over the past 10 years and more, China's rapid economic growth has been the result of both internal and external factors. The positive impact of the global input-output structure changes on China's economy is mostly short-term and temporary. The domestic final product production structure, which is mainly investment, will not be sustainable in the middle income stage. Finally, this paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：南京审计大学政治与经济研究院;江苏省行政学院经济社会发展研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD085) 国家自然科学基金项目(71573137,71373106) 江苏高校优势学科建设工程二期项目(PAPD)的资助
【分类号】：F124.1

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