中国高铁建设投资对国民经济和环境的短期效应综合评估

发布时间：2018-09-01 12:37

【摘要】：近年来,传统铁路发展远不能满足各行业对综合交通运输体系的需求,中国政府正加大对高铁行业的规划与投资。现有高铁网络与其他铁路共同构成的快速客运网,推动了产业的空间布局,加速了产业结构调整,提高了就业率,提升了区域间劳动力、资本、自然资源等配置效率,促进了区域经济协调发展。在中国政府大力建设高铁网络的当下,综合评估中国高铁建设投资给国民经济和环境带来的影响具有必要性和十分重要的现实意义。本文基于中国2012年投入产出表,利用投入产出技术和计量经济学模型,通过重新刻画投入产出模型中农村居民、城镇居民部门"收入-消费"内生关系,区分高铁与传统铁路在生产结构和投资结构的差异,构建基于居民消费局部内生化的高铁投资投入产出局部闭模型,评估中国高铁建设投资对经济、就业和能源环境的短期效应。结果表明:12012年中国高铁投资每亿元拉动总产出增加3.72亿元,GDP增长1.21亿元,投资总量给国民经济共带来总产出增长19 373.44亿元、GDP增长6 296.04亿元;2在拉动经济增长同时,高铁建设投资对就业拉动显著,每亿元高铁投资创造1 084个就业岗位,2012年因高铁投资新增就业岗位高达565.23万人。这意味着,在短期内,中国高铁建设投资会在发展社会经济、促进居民就业等方面注入强大的动力;3在环境层面,2012年高铁前期基础建设共带来83.42 Mt CO2排放,略大于传统铁路投资,但考虑到建成运营后,高铁具有清洁、稳定、高速等特点,高铁建设投资在环境层面优势会慢慢显现。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the development of traditional railways is far from meeting the needs of various industries for a comprehensive transport system, and the Chinese government is increasing planning and investment in the high-speed rail industry. The existing high-speed rail network, together with the rapid passenger transport network of other railways, has promoted the spatial layout of the industry, accelerated the adjustment of the industrial structure, increased the employment rate, and increased the efficiency of regional allocation of labor, capital, natural resources, etc. Promote the coordinated development of regional economy. It is necessary and important to comprehensively assess the impact of investment in high-speed rail construction on the national economy and the environment in China at a time when the Chinese government is making great efforts to build a high-speed rail network. Based on the input-output table of China in 2012, using input-output technology and econometrics model, this paper recharacterizes the endogenetic relationship between "income and consumption" of rural residents and urban residents in the input-output model. This paper distinguishes the difference between high-speed railway and traditional railway in production structure and investment structure, constructs a local closed model of high-speed rail investment based on local biochemistry of residents' consumption, and evaluates the economic impact of high-speed rail investment in China. The short-term effects of employment and the energy environment. The results show that: 1in 2012, the total output of China's high-speed rail investment increased by 372 million yuan per 100 million yuan and the total output of the total investment increased by 121 million yuan. The total investment volume brought a total output growth of 1.937344 trillion yuan to the national economy and 629.604 billion yuan of GDP growth at the same time as the economic growth. Investment in high-speed rail has contributed significantly to employment, creating 1,084 jobs per billion yuan of high-speed rail investment, up from 5.6523 million jobs created in 2012 as a result of investment in high-speed rail. This means that in the short term, investment in high-speed rail construction in China will inject strong power into the environment in terms of socio-economic development, employment promotion, and so on, with a total of 83.42 Mt CO2 emissions generated by the pre-rail infrastructure in 2012. It is a little larger than the traditional railway investment, but considering the characteristics of clean, stable and high-speed railway, the advantages of high-speed rail investment in environmental level will gradually emerge.
【作者单位】：中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心;北京航空航天大学经济管理学院;对外经济贸易大学统计学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“我国低碳发展战略对我国各区域在全球产业链分工的影响研究”(批准号:71573248);国家自然科学基金国际重大合作项目“我国统一碳市场建立的条件、机制设计与社会经济影响分析”(批准号:71210005) 国家统计局2012投入产出研究课题重点资助项目“中国高铁投资对经济、就业和能源环境的短期效应综合评估研究”(批准号:IO12-ZD07) 中国企业“走出去”协同创新中心科研项目(批准号:201504YY006A)
【分类号】：F532.3

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