开放条件下上海产业结构调整问题研究
发布时间：2018-09-02 08:04
【摘要】：当前中央提出转变经济增长方式、走可持续发展的道路,这要求改变过去粗放式的经济发展模式,走环境友好型、资源节约型的新型工业化道路。这一战略目标的提出,即是解决中国改革开放30年所累积矛盾的内在需要,也是应对金融危机后全球经济体系正在变革的客观要求。上海作为中国对外开放的前沿窗口和经济重镇,是最早面临增长瓶颈和经济转型问题的地区之一,因此研究上海的经济转型问题,对探索中国未来的经济增长模式,具有十分重要的现实价值。 围绕上海经济转型这一命题,本文试图解决三个核心的问题：一是为什么上海的经济转型需要调整产业结构；二是上海的产业结构调整受哪些因素影响,需要调整哪些产业?如何去选择这此产业?；三是如何调整产业结构? 针对这三个问题,本文按照“现状分析——原因剖析——调整目标——影响因素——对策建议”的研究思路,着重进行了以下几个方面的研究：(1)上海经济发展过程中,在产业结构方面存在的主要问题是什么?(2)如何确定上海产业结构战略性调整的方向和适应性调整的目标?(3)影响上海产业结构调整的国内外因素主要是什么?(4)如何调整上海产业结构? 之所以要调整上海的产业结构,其根本原因在于中国过去通过招商引资,以低要素成本参与国际竞争的增长模式难以为继。转变经济增长方式意味着要将经济增长的动力由主要依靠增加要素投入和外部需求,转变到主要依靠劳动生产率的提高和启动内需市场来推动经济的增长。对于如何提高劳动生产率,学术界已有大量文献进行研究,归结起来其机制主要是科技进步、内生经济增长和产业结构转换三个方面。本文从分析上海产业结构与经济增长的匹配关系入手,通过对上海经济增长中的“结构红利”效应进行检验,发现上海30年多来的经济增长主要来自各产业的内部增长效应,结构变迁效应并不显著；结构红利对经济增长的推动仅是阶段性现象,突出表现在劳动生产率增长率较低时期,产业结构变迁较为明显,其它时期经济增长主要依靠各产业的内部增长效应。由此进一步分析得出,上海产业结构调整的主要原因在于经济增长中的技术进步水平大幅下降,表现为1999年以来,全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献持续下降,技术进步的缺乏已经导致了各产业失去了进一步增长的潜力,只能依靠增加要素投入进行粗放式增长。这意味着,如果不从根本上提高科技进步水平、提高产业发展中的技术含量,转变经济增长方式将失去实体产业的基础。因此,在目前发展阶段,与满足内需等因素相比,调整产业结构才是上海转变经济增长方式的关键；而结构调整的核心任务是提高劳动生产率、增强产业的竞争力,具体可以概括为产业结构高级化、合理化和高度化。 通过上述的理论分析、逻辑推理和实证研究,论文认为：(1)对照国际标准产业结构,上海目前产业结构总体上处于合理范围之内,第三产业已经超越第二产业成为经济增长的主要动力；(2)上海产业结构的主要问题在于,产业发展在国际竞争中被低端锁定的同时,各产业内部同时存在着产值结构、就业结构对经济增长贡献的偏差,不利于经济的进一步增长；(3)上海产业结构调整是世界经济长周期运行规律下,发达国家再工业化战略和中国(上海)经济运行累积矛盾共同作用的必然选项；(4)上海产业结构调整的主要目标是占领世界第五次长周期的技术高地和产业先机,为中国经济进入世界第五次长周期发展开好局；(5)上海产业结构调整的抓手是战略新兴产业和高科技产业,这需要在开放中加强技术的自主研发和引进国外先进技术产业。由此决定在国与国的产业竞争中,市场必然是主体,政府仍须参与其中,但一切都必须按市场规则行事。 与以往的研究相比,本文的创新之处在于： 1、本文从产业结构与经济增长的关系视角,通过研究“区域经济增长中的结构红利现象”,分析了上海产业结构调整的主要原因。指出如果不改变上海产业发展中技术进步缺乏的问题,转变经济增长方式将失去产业发展的基础。 2、本文从世界经济长周期运行的角度分析了中国经济运行的战略转型的必要性,并从全球经济体系变革、美国再工业化战略和中国国家战略转型的大视角,分析了上海产业结构调整的目标任务、影响因素和主要脉络。 3、在研究方法上,主要使用偏离份额分析法、时间序列数据分析、结构偏差分析和钱纳里修正模型,对上海产业结构调整中的全要素生产率、结构效应、影响因素等进行了定量分析,从中发现了上海产业结构调整有别于其他地区之处,从而为分析结论和政策建议提供了数据方面的支撑。
[Abstract]:At present, the central government proposes to change the mode of economic growth and take the road of sustainable development, which calls for changing the extensive mode of economic development in the past and taking the new industrialization road of environment-friendly and resource-saving. As a leading window and economic center of China's opening up to the outside world, Shanghai is one of the earliest regions facing growth bottlenecks and economic transformation problems. Therefore, it is of great practical value to study the economic transformation of Shanghai in order to explore China's future economic growth model.
Around the proposition of Shanghai's economic transformation, this paper attempts to solve three core problems: first, why Shanghai's economic transformation needs to adjust the industrial structure; second, what factors affect Shanghai's industrial restructuring, which industries need to be adjusted; how to choose this industry? Third, how to adjust the industrial structure?
In view of these three problems, this paper focuses on the following aspects: (1) What are the main problems in the industrial structure of Shanghai in the process of economic development? (2) How to determine the industrial structure of Shanghai? Construct the direction of strategic adjustment and the goal of adaptive adjustment? (3) What are the main domestic and foreign factors affecting Shanghai's industrial structure adjustment? (4) How to adjust Shanghai's industrial structure?
The fundamental reason for adjusting Shanghai's industrial structure lies in the fact that it was difficult for China to sustain the growth pattern of participating in international competition with low factor cost by attracting investment. Changing the mode of economic growth means that the motive force of economic growth should be changed from mainly relying on increasing factor input and external demand to relying mainly on labor production. A large number of literatures have been published on how to improve labor productivity. In conclusion, the mechanism is mainly scientific and technological progress, endogenous economic growth and industrial structure transformation. By examining the "structural dividend" effect in Shanghai's economic growth, it is found that the economic growth in the past 30 years in Shanghai has mainly come from the internal growth effect of various industries, and the effect of structural change is not significant. The change of industrial structure is more obvious, and the economic growth in other periods mainly depends on the internal growth effect of various industries. The further analysis shows that the main reason for Shanghai's industrial restructuring is that the level of technological progress in economic growth has dropped sharply, which shows that the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to economic growth has been declining steadily since 1999. The lack of technological progress has led to the loss of the potential for further growth of various industries, which can only be achieved by increasing the input of factors. In the exhibition stage, the adjustment of industrial structure is the key to the transformation of Shanghai's economic growth mode, compared with meeting domestic demand and other factors, while the core task of structural adjustment is to improve labor productivity and enhance the competitiveness of industries, which can be summarized as the upgrading, rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure.
Through the above theoretical analysis, logical reasoning and empirical research, the paper holds that: (1) compared with the international standard industrial structure, Shanghai's industrial structure is generally within a reasonable range, the tertiary industry has exceeded the secondary industry as the main driving force for economic growth; (2) the main problem of Shanghai's industrial structure lies in the international industrial development. While the competition is locked in by the low-end, the output value structure exists in each industry at the same time, and the deviation of employment structure contributing to economic growth is not conducive to further economic growth; (3) Shanghai's industrial restructuring is the long-term operation of the world economy, the developed countries're-industrialization strategy and China's (Shanghai) economic operation cumulative contradictions co-exist. The main objective of Shanghai's industrial restructuring is to occupy the fifth long-term technological plateau and industrial opportunities in the world, and to open a good beginning for China's economy to enter the fifth long-term development of the world; (5) The key to Shanghai's industrial restructuring is strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries, which need to be strengthened in the process of opening up. Independent R&D of technology and the introduction of foreign advanced technology industries determine that in the industrial competition between countries, the market must be the main body, and the government must still participate in it, but all must act according to market rules.
Compared with previous studies, the innovation of this paper is:
1. From the perspective of the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth, this paper analyzes the main reasons for Shanghai's industrial restructuring by studying the phenomenon of structural dividend in regional economic growth.
2. This paper analyzes the necessity of strategic transformation of China's economic operation from the perspective of long-term operation of the world economy, and from the perspective of global economic system reform, American re-industrialization strategy and China's national strategic transformation, analyzes the objectives, tasks, influencing factors and main contexts of Shanghai's industrial restructuring.
3. In the research method, we mainly use deviation share analysis, time series data analysis, structural deviation analysis and Channery correction model to quantitatively analyze the total factor productivity, structural effect and influencing factors in Shanghai's industrial restructuring, and find out the differences between Shanghai's industrial restructuring and other regions. It provides data support for analyzing conclusions and policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127
本文编号：2218759
[Abstract]:At present, the central government proposes to change the mode of economic growth and take the road of sustainable development, which calls for changing the extensive mode of economic development in the past and taking the new industrialization road of environment-friendly and resource-saving. As a leading window and economic center of China's opening up to the outside world, Shanghai is one of the earliest regions facing growth bottlenecks and economic transformation problems. Therefore, it is of great practical value to study the economic transformation of Shanghai in order to explore China's future economic growth model.
Around the proposition of Shanghai's economic transformation, this paper attempts to solve three core problems: first, why Shanghai's economic transformation needs to adjust the industrial structure; second, what factors affect Shanghai's industrial restructuring, which industries need to be adjusted; how to choose this industry? Third, how to adjust the industrial structure?
In view of these three problems, this paper focuses on the following aspects: (1) What are the main problems in the industrial structure of Shanghai in the process of economic development? (2) How to determine the industrial structure of Shanghai? Construct the direction of strategic adjustment and the goal of adaptive adjustment? (3) What are the main domestic and foreign factors affecting Shanghai's industrial structure adjustment? (4) How to adjust Shanghai's industrial structure?
The fundamental reason for adjusting Shanghai's industrial structure lies in the fact that it was difficult for China to sustain the growth pattern of participating in international competition with low factor cost by attracting investment. Changing the mode of economic growth means that the motive force of economic growth should be changed from mainly relying on increasing factor input and external demand to relying mainly on labor production. A large number of literatures have been published on how to improve labor productivity. In conclusion, the mechanism is mainly scientific and technological progress, endogenous economic growth and industrial structure transformation. By examining the "structural dividend" effect in Shanghai's economic growth, it is found that the economic growth in the past 30 years in Shanghai has mainly come from the internal growth effect of various industries, and the effect of structural change is not significant. The change of industrial structure is more obvious, and the economic growth in other periods mainly depends on the internal growth effect of various industries. The further analysis shows that the main reason for Shanghai's industrial restructuring is that the level of technological progress in economic growth has dropped sharply, which shows that the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to economic growth has been declining steadily since 1999. The lack of technological progress has led to the loss of the potential for further growth of various industries, which can only be achieved by increasing the input of factors. In the exhibition stage, the adjustment of industrial structure is the key to the transformation of Shanghai's economic growth mode, compared with meeting domestic demand and other factors, while the core task of structural adjustment is to improve labor productivity and enhance the competitiveness of industries, which can be summarized as the upgrading, rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure.
Through the above theoretical analysis, logical reasoning and empirical research, the paper holds that: (1) compared with the international standard industrial structure, Shanghai's industrial structure is generally within a reasonable range, the tertiary industry has exceeded the secondary industry as the main driving force for economic growth; (2) the main problem of Shanghai's industrial structure lies in the international industrial development. While the competition is locked in by the low-end, the output value structure exists in each industry at the same time, and the deviation of employment structure contributing to economic growth is not conducive to further economic growth; (3) Shanghai's industrial restructuring is the long-term operation of the world economy, the developed countries're-industrialization strategy and China's (Shanghai) economic operation cumulative contradictions co-exist. The main objective of Shanghai's industrial restructuring is to occupy the fifth long-term technological plateau and industrial opportunities in the world, and to open a good beginning for China's economy to enter the fifth long-term development of the world; (5) The key to Shanghai's industrial restructuring is strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries, which need to be strengthened in the process of opening up. Independent R&D of technology and the introduction of foreign advanced technology industries determine that in the industrial competition between countries, the market must be the main body, and the government must still participate in it, but all must act according to market rules.
Compared with previous studies, the innovation of this paper is:
1. From the perspective of the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth, this paper analyzes the main reasons for Shanghai's industrial restructuring by studying the phenomenon of structural dividend in regional economic growth.
2. This paper analyzes the necessity of strategic transformation of China's economic operation from the perspective of long-term operation of the world economy, and from the perspective of global economic system reform, American re-industrialization strategy and China's national strategic transformation, analyzes the objectives, tasks, influencing factors and main contexts of Shanghai's industrial restructuring.
3. In the research method, we mainly use deviation share analysis, time series data analysis, structural deviation analysis and Channery correction model to quantitatively analyze the total factor productivity, structural effect and influencing factors in Shanghai's industrial restructuring, and find out the differences between Shanghai's industrial restructuring and other regions. It provides data support for analyzing conclusions and policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127
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