农村地区养老脆弱性的省际差异及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-10-05 13:46

【摘要】：不同省份农村地区资源禀赋与经济社会发展水平的差距使得其养老脆弱性也存在较大差异,对农村养老脆弱性的省际差异测度及其影响因素的识别是提升养老保障政策针对性与可操作性的关键。文章基于2014年全国农村地区公开数据,从敏感性和应对能力两个维度构建农村地区养老脆弱性评价指标体系,采用集对分析方法对我国31个省(市、区)农村地区养老脆弱性指数进行了测算,借助Arc GIS自然断点法将我国农村地区养老脆弱性划分为5个等级并对其省际差异进行空间可视化描述,在此基础上,利用障碍度模型分析了我国农村养老脆弱性的影响因素。研究发现:1我国农村地区养老脆弱性总体上处于中等区,但呈现出明显的省际差异、区域差异以及区域内部差异;2不同省份农村地区养老敏感性和养老应对能力的差异较大,且对养老脆弱性的形成产生程度不一的影响。总体上,东部省份农村养老脆弱性明显低于中西部省份;3农村地区养老脆弱性省际差异的形成受到老年抚养比、国家级贫困县数量、低保中老年人占比、农作物受灾面积和医疗保健支出占比等多种因素的影响。文章认为,在全面提升农村养老服务供给水平的基础上,进一步促进区域经济社会协调发展、强化中西部省份农村养老服务体系建设的投入力度成为降低农村养老脆弱性的关键。
[Abstract]:The difference between the resource endowment and the level of economic and social development in rural areas of different provinces makes the vulnerability of their old-age pension quite different. It is the key to improve the pertinence and maneuverability of the old-age security policy to measure the provincial differences of rural pension vulnerability and identify the influencing factors. Based on the public data of rural areas in 2014, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for the vulnerability of the aged in rural areas from the two dimensions of sensitivity and coping ability, and applies the set pair analysis method to 31 provinces (cities) in China. Based on the calculation of the vulnerability index of the aged in rural areas, the vulnerability of the aged in rural areas in China is divided into five grades with the help of the natural breakpoint method of Arc GIS, and the spatial visualization of the differences between provinces is carried out on the basis of this. The factors influencing the vulnerability of rural old-age support in China are analyzed by using the barrier degree model. The study found that the vulnerability of pension in the rural areas of China is generally in the middle area, but there are obvious inter-provincial differences, regional differences and intra-regional differences in rural areas of different provinces pension sensitivity and pension coping capacity differences. And the formation of vulnerability to the pension has varying degrees of influence. On the whole, the rural old-age vulnerability in eastern provinces is obviously lower than that in the central and western provinces, and the formation of inter-provincial differences in pension vulnerability is due to the dependency ratio of the elderly, the number of state-level poor counties, and the proportion of the middle and middle aged people with low living standard. The effect of many factors, such as the area affected by crops and the proportion of health care expenditure. The article holds that, on the basis of comprehensively improving the level of rural old-age service supply, we should further promote the coordinated development of regional economy and society. Strengthening the investment of rural old-age service system in central and western provinces becomes the key to reduce the vulnerability of rural old-age care.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“新疆农村老龄人口贫困化研究”(批准号:12CRK006);国家社会科学基金项目“农村社会管理体制实证研究”(批准号:2011BSH022) 中央高校基本业务专项资金“财政补贴;缴费档次与新型农村社会养老保险可持续性研究”(批准号:2015S1215) 中南财经政法大学公共管理学院暑期调研项目“湖北省社会养老服务体系调查研究”
【分类号】：D422.6;D669.6

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