沈阳经济区典型小流域水生态承载力及驱动力分析

发布时间：2018-11-29 07:14

【摘要】：近年来，由于人类过分地追求经济发展的同时忽略了生态环境的保护，，被破坏的生态环境反过来又制约了经济发展，所以可持续发展的理论被越来越多的学者们关注，而水生态承载力作为社会可持续发展的重要约束条件，其研究是为环保决策部门的管理提供科学依据。以往的水生态承载力的研究大多是以行政区域或者整个流域为研究单元，这就导致评价结果并不能真实地反应出区域的水生态承载力状况。比如对于整个流域来说，上游的承载状态良好，下游的承载状态不达标，综合起来该流域的水生态承载力可能是处于较好的状态，但是实际状态并不如此，这对流域的发展是不利的，不仅影响流域的生态平衡，同时也影响了区域经济的整体发展。本研究在水环境承载力和水资源承载力的基础之上，主要针对沈阳经济区典型流域中的凡河流域和清河流域，通过建立指标体系，运用vensim软件对水生态承载力发展趋势进行仿真模拟。提出了针对性较强的改善水生态承载力的方案，使人类经济发展在生态可承载的范围内。本文得出的主要结论是： 1、本文在水生态承载力的理论基础之上，参考已有的水生态承载力指标，同时根据凡河流域和清河流域的具体情况，建立了流域水生态承载力指标体系，分别是单位工业产值COD排放量、水资源供需比、工业废水达标率、人均水资源量、人均GDP、植被覆盖率。 2、由于水生态承载力是一个复杂的系统，涉及到很多理论，指标之间也互相交叉耦合，比较了生态足迹法、自然植被净第一生产力法、模型估算法等，选择系统动力学方法分析水生态承载力，此方法对于处理非线性、多指标的问题有明显优势。 3、采用人口和工业废水排放量为对比指标，模拟数据与真实数据之间的误差小于10%，分别为0.2%、1.5%，以此来验证模型的真实有效性。然后通过vensim软件模拟了五种水生态承载力的发展趋势。 4、结果显示，由于研究的水生态功能分区特征不同，同样的方案对不同的水生态功能分区所产生的效果不尽相同。所以，在提出改善水生态承载力方案的时候，要结合流域的生态服务功能和自身特点。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the theory of sustainable development has been paid more and more attention by more and more scholars, because human beings have been excessively pursuing economic development while neglecting the protection of ecological environment, and the damaged ecological environment in turn has restricted economic development. As an important constraint for the sustainable development of society, the study of water ecological carrying capacity is to provide scientific basis for the management of environmental protection decision-making departments. In the past, the research of the ecological carrying capacity of water was mostly based on the administrative region or the whole river basin, which resulted in the evaluation results could not truly reflect the status of the water ecological carrying capacity of the region. For example, for the whole river basin, the upstream carrying capacity is good, and the downstream carrying capacity is not up to the standard. Taken together, the water ecological carrying capacity of the basin may be in a better state, but the actual situation is not so. This is unfavorable to the development of the basin, which not only affects the ecological balance of the basin, but also affects the overall development of the regional economy. On the basis of carrying capacity of water environment and carrying capacity of water resources, this study mainly aims at Fanhe basin and Qinghe river basin in typical watershed of Shenyang economic zone, through establishing index system. The development trend of water ecological carrying capacity is simulated by vensim software. In order to make the development of human economy within the range of ecological carrying capacity, this paper puts forward a plan to improve the ecological carrying capacity of water. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. Based on the theory of water ecological carrying capacity, this paper refers to the existing indicators of water ecological carrying capacity, and at the same time, according to the specific conditions of the Fan River Basin and the Qing River Basin, The index system of water ecological carrying capacity of watershed is set up, which are the COD emissions per unit industrial output value, the ratio of water supply and demand, the ratio of industrial wastewater to the standard, the amount of water resources per capita, and the coverage rate of GDP, vegetation per capita. 2. Because the water ecological carrying capacity is a complex system, it involves many theories, and the indexes are also cross-coupled. The ecological footprint method, the net first productivity method of natural vegetation, the model estimation method and so on are compared. The system dynamics method is chosen to analyze the ecological bearing capacity of water. This method has obvious advantages in dealing with nonlinear and multi-index problems. 3. Using the population and industrial wastewater discharge as the comparative index, the error between the simulated data and the real data is less than 10, which is 0.21.5, respectively, in order to verify the real validity of the model. Then the development trend of five kinds of water ecological carrying capacity is simulated by vensim software. 4. The results show that the same scheme has different effects on different water ecological function zoning because of the different zoning characteristics of water ecological function. Therefore, to improve the water ecological carrying capacity, we should combine the ecological service function of the watershed and its own characteristics.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X143

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