基于EOF和GWR模型的中原经济区经济增长的时空分析

  本文关键词：中原经济区县域交通优势度与区域经济空间耦合，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

关。EOF分析的第一模态反映出1988-2012年以来，中原经济区经济增长总体上沿京广线的东西两侧反相分布，京广线以西增长快于京广线以东，第一模态对应的时间系数，表现出明显的年际特征，东、西两部分地区具有近10年的增长循环周期。第二模态反映了中原经济区经济增长的局部区域的年际异常特征，，呈现西南、东北部反相分布空间格局，相应时间系数年际波动更明显。

（2）GWR分析发现：1988-2012年年间，影响中原经济区人均GDP变化因素的重要程度在空间上存在不同。农民人均纯收入对中原经济区经济增长的影响最大，呈正相关关系。资源禀赋是第二大影响因素，也呈正相关关系。经济区位是第三大影响因素，其他因素依次是第二产业比重、城市化水平和农业机械总动力。

（3）影响中原经济区经济增长的大部分因素有明显的经度地带性规律。农民人均纯收入、资源禀赋和农业机械总动力对人均GDP的影响强度都从东南向西北依次降低；经济区位和第二产业比重对人均GDP影响从西北向东南降低。说明中原经济区经济增长可能还受到地形、气候、区域政策等的影响。

从以上分析可以看出，EOF分析可以更好地把时间序列和空间变化相结合，揭示区域发展演变的时空规律，GWR分析能较好解释区域发展演变的空间异质性的形成机制。中原经济区社会和自然环境比较复杂。因此，在制定区域发展政策时，要考虑不同行政单元的特殊性。考虑到数据的可获得性，本文只对中原经济区30个地级行政区经济增长进行研究，空间尺度较大，可能会降低小尺度单元对某些影响因素的敏感性，同时，自然环境的地形、气候等对经济发展也有一定影响，本文只在分析中提及，没有做量化分析，这些需要进一步深入研究。

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Spatial-temporalanalysisofeconomicgrowthinCentralPlains

EconomicZonewithEOFandGRWmethods

BAIJingfeng,ZHANGHaijun

(CollegeofEnvironmentScienceandTourism,NanyangNormalUniversity,Nanyang473061,Henan,China)

Abstract:Combinedwiththenationalstrategicrequirementofcoordinateddevelopmentofin-dustrialization,urbanizationandagricultureinCentralPlainsEconomicZone,selectingtheda-taofpercapitaGDPfrom1988to2012,thispaper,byadoptingthenaturalorthogonalfunction(EOF),analyzedthespatial-temporalcharacteristicsofeconomicgrowthinCentralPlainsEco-nomicZone,andrevealedthemaindrivingforceofeconomicgrowthandevolutionwiththeaidofgeographicallyweightedregression(GWR)model.ThefirstmodalofEOFanalysisshowedthatthespatialdistributionoftheeconomicgrowth,onthewhole,inCentralPlainsEconomicZoneisoutofphasealongBeijing-GuangzhouRaiway(BGR),andthateconomywestoftheBGRgrowsfasterthanthattoeastoftheBGRandtheircorrespondingtimecoeffi-cientsshowedtheobviousinterannualchange,andpartsofregiontotheeastandwestoftherailwayhavenearly10yearsofdevelopmentcycle.Thesecondmodereflectedtheannualanomalyofeconomicgrowthinsomepartsofthezone,andthephasedistributionofspatialpatterninsouthwestandnortheastoftheregion,andtheinterannualfluctuationofitscorre-spondingtimecoefficientsismoreobvious.GWRanalysisshowedthattheimportanceoffac-torsthatresultinthechangeofpercapitaGDPintheCentralPlainsEconomicZoneisdifferentinspace.Thepercapitanetincomeofruralresidentsboaststhegreatestinfluenceontheeco-nomicgrowthoftheCentralPlainsEconomicZone,andthereisapositivecorrelation.Resourc-esendowmentisthesecondlargestinfluencingfactor,andalsopositivelycorrelatedwitheco-nomicgrowth.Theeconomiclocationisthethirdinfluencingfactor,followedbythesecondaryindustry,thelevelofurbanization,andagriculturalmachinerytotalpower.Agriculturalmachin-erytotalpowerhastheleastinfluence,andisnegativecorrelatedwitheconomicgrowth.ThefactorsthatinfluencetheeconomicgrowthintheCentralPlainsEconomicZoneshowedaclearlongitudinalzonality.Therefore,theuniquenessofdifferentadministrativeregionsshouldbeconsideredintheformulationofregionaldevelopmentpolicies.

Keywords:EOF;GWR;spatialtemporal;CentralPlainsEconomicZone

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  本文关键词：中原经济区县域交通优势度与区域经济空间耦合，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。