我国收入流动性变动趋势及影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 01:31

本文关键词：我国收入流动性变动趋势及影响因素的实证研究　出处：《南京财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放30多年来,中国经济快速增长,成为世界第二大经济体,然而,居民收入增长的步伐仍赶不上经济发展的速度,同时也成为全球两极分化最严重的国家之一,收入分配己经到了极不公平的程度。有学者认为,如果收入流动性较大,前一时期收入较低的居民在下一时期可能进入较高的收入等级,而前一时期收入较高的居民下一时期也有可能进入较低的收入等级,那么,长期的收入不平等可能会小于短期的收入不平等,中国社会就可以通过促进机会平等,加大收入流动性来达到缓解长期收入差距过大的问题。本文通过对不同时间间隔的收入转移矩阵、基于五等分法相同时间间隔的收入转移矩阵以及基于K均值聚类相同时间间隔的收入转移矩阵进行了分析,定义并且计算得到收入流动性指数和收入流动方向指数,进而实证分析了我国收入流动性的变动趋势,然后以收入位置变化为被解释变量,建立Logistic模型,对居民的初始收入等级、年龄、性别、受教育程度、职业类型以及地区等变量进行了收入流动影响因素的分析,最后为缓解我国居民收入差距过大提出了一些可操作的对策建议。具体结论如下：长期中收入流动性比短期中更大,因此长期中的收入差距要小于短期的收入差距。采用五等分法得到相同时间间隔的转移矩阵各元素值较为均等,结果表明低收入组和高收入组的不流动概率随着经济发展逐渐上升,中等收入者呈现出波动状态,且总体概率值偏低。采用聚类分析法得到的相同时间间隔的转移矩阵中低收入组元素较大,中高收入组较小,甚至为零。结果表明低收入者、中低收入者和中等收入者的不流动概率虽然有波动,但整体是呈现一个明显的上升趋势。收入流动性指数随着经济增长有明显的下降趋势,这一点两种方法的结果一致。但是,聚类分析的收入流动性指数总体比五等分法的收入流动性指数要小。由此可以看出我国的收入差距较大,且这种差距随着经济发展在逐渐扩大。收入流动方向指数在大多数时期小于1,说明收入大多是向下流动,居民整体福利是下降的。通过分别对城市和农村居民进行研究,发现城市居民收入流动性指数总体上大于农村居民,说明城市居民收入更富有流动性,但是,城市居民的收入流动方向主要是向下流动。农村居民收入的流动性较差,但是,农村居民的收入流动方向主要是向上流动。对收入流动性影响因素的分析结果表明,居民初始收入等级、受教育程度以及地区因素对收入流动性有显著的影响,而性别、年龄以及职业类型只对部分人影响显著。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up more than 30 years ago, China's economy has grown rapidly and become the second largest economy in the world. However, the pace of income growth of residents is still not keeping up with the pace of economic development. At the same time, it has become one of the most polarized countries in the world, and the income distribution has reached a very unfair degree. Some scholars believe that if the income mobility is greater. Residents with lower incomes in the previous period may enter a higher income level in the next period, and residents with higher incomes in the previous period may also enter a lower income level in the next period. Long-term income inequality may be smaller than short-term income inequality, and Chinese society can promote equal opportunities. Increase income mobility to alleviate the problem of excessive income gap. This paper through different time interval income transfer matrix. The income transfer matrix with the same time interval and the income transfer matrix with the same time interval based on K-means clustering are analyzed. This paper defines and calculates the income liquidity index and the income flow direction index, and then empirically analyzes the change trend of income liquidity in China, and then takes the change of income position as the explanatory variable. Logistic model was established to analyze the influencing factors of income flow in residents' initial income grade, age, sex, education level, occupation type and area. Finally, in order to alleviate the excessive income gap of residents in China, put forward some feasible countermeasures and suggestions. The specific conclusions are as follows: the long-term income mobility is greater than the short-term. Therefore, the income gap in the long run is smaller than that in the short term. The results showed that the probability of immobility in the low income group and the high income group increased with the development of economy, and the middle income group showed a fluctuating state. And the total probability value is low. The transfer matrix with the same time interval obtained by cluster analysis is larger in elements, smaller in middle and high income groups, or even zero. The results show that the low income group. Although there are fluctuations in the probability of immobility of the middle and low income group, the overall trend is an obvious upward trend. The income liquidity index has a significant downward trend with the economic growth. The results of the two methods are consistent. However, the income liquidity index of cluster analysis is smaller than that of the five equal division method, so we can see that the income gap of our country is large. The income flow direction index is less than 1 in most periods, indicating that the income flow is mostly downward. Through the study of urban and rural residents, it is found that the income mobility index of urban residents is generally larger than that of rural residents, indicating that urban residents' income is more mobile, but. The income flow direction of urban residents is mainly downward flow. Rural residents' income mobility is poor, but. The main direction of income flow of rural residents is upward mobility. The results of the analysis of the factors affecting income mobility show that the initial income level, education level and regional factors have a significant impact on income mobility. Sex, age and occupation type had significant effects on only some people.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.7

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