2017年中国经济前瞻

发布时间：2017-12-31 02:20

本文关键词：2017年中国经济前瞻　出处：《国家行政学院学报》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2016年中国经济在较大的下行压力下增速保持平稳,GDP增量则基本上创下历史新高。支撑经济平稳增长的动力主要包括基建投资快速增长、房地产市场活跃、出口需求改善、汽车消费趋热、产业与消费结构转型升级、工业库存周期见底、PPI持续回升、企业成本下降、宏观经济政策积极调节以及一带一路等国家发展战略持续推进等十个方面。展望2017年,上述十大动力将呈现分化走势,有的动力将继续对经济增长形成有力支撑,而有的动力将有所减弱。由此,2017年中国经济虽然有望延续L型走势,但下行压力或许将大于2016年。鉴于当前中国经济的主要矛盾是结构问题而非总量问题,中国需要提高对经济增速下行的容忍度,在保证经济增长不出现大的下滑的前提下,坚定不移地推进以"三去一降一补"为主要抓手的供给侧结构性改革,用短痛换来经济更健康、更可持续的增长。
[Abstract]:China's economy grew at a steady pace in 2016 under strong downward pressure, while GDP growth hit a record high. The main drivers behind the steady growth include rapid growth in infrastructure investment. The real estate market is active, the export demand is improving, the automobile consumption is hot, the industry and the consumption structure is transforming and upgrading, the industrial inventory cycle is bottoming, the PPI is rising continuously, the enterprise cost is falling. Macroeconomic policies actively adjust and Belt and Road and other national development strategy to continue to promote ten aspects. Looking forward to 2017, the top ten driving forces will show a trend of differentiation. Some momentum will continue to support economic growth, while others will weaken. Thus, 2017 China's economy is expected to continue the L-shape trend. But the downward pressure is likely to be greater than in 2016, and given that the main contradiction in China's economy is now structural rather than aggregate, China needs to increase its tolerance for a downturn in growth. On the premise of ensuring that there will not be a big decline in economic growth, we will unswervingly push forward the supply-side structural reform, which is mainly focused on "three go, one drop and one supplement," in exchange for healthier and more sustainable economic growth.
【作者单位】：国家统计局中国经济景气监测中心;
【分类号】：F124
【正文快照】： 2016年已经过去,尽管最终的年度经济数据还没有出来,但全年经济增速“L型”的态势已基本确立,前三季度GDP增速均稳定在6.7%,全年预计也可能在6.7%左右。事实上,这样一个看似波澜不惊的L型平缓走势,是极其不容易的。因为,如果按年度6.7%增速计算,2016年中国GDP增量将首次突破4

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