产业结构升级中的就业效应分析

发布时间：2017-12-31 06:30

本文关键词：产业结构升级中的就业效应分析　出处：《福州大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：产业结构升级与劳动力就业之间存在作用与反作用的关系,共同影响经济发展。产业结构升级在促进经济快速发展的同时也带来了就业问题,主要体现在产业结构与就业结构二者变动的不一致性,就业总量增速明显缓慢,产业发展未能有效吸纳就业等方面。怎么样将产业结构与就业结构共同考虑在内,使二者协同共进,不仅是我国当前理论界的研究热点,更是实践层面上亟待解决的问题。根据国内外经济学者的理论分析,本文进一步探讨了产业结构和就业结构之间的关系,二者的协调发展为经济提供巨大的推动力。但是,由于制度、教育、人口等多方面的影响,使二者未必能保持较好的协调性。当产业结构与就业结构呈现严重背离时,产业结构升级迟缓、失业、经济增长受阻等问题不断出现。产业结构升级与劳动力就业存在紧密联系,产业发展的变化引导着劳动力就业的变化,当产业发展重心发生转移时,劳动力就业也会随之改变。面对就业难与招工难并存,产业结构与就业结构变动不一致对经济发展和就业稳定产生不利影响这一我国的现实问题,本文在理论分析前提下,采用比较劳动生产率和结构偏离度对我国产业结构升级中就业的现状、问题及成因进行了探究,然后选择三大产业产值比重构建计量模型进行实证检验,结果表明：第一产业产值比重与三大产业就业率存在协整关系,且与第一产业就业率呈正相关,与第二、三产业就业率呈负相关,第一产业比重增长对第一产业就业率的促进作用小于对第二、三产业总体就业率的抑制作用,因此应降低第一产业比重；第二产业产值比重与第一产业就业率呈现负协整,与第二、三产业就业率呈现正协整,整体的促进作用大于抑制作用,应对第二产业进行正确引导；第三产业产值比重与第一产业就业率呈现负协整关系,与第二、三产业就业率呈现正协整关系,第三产业具有较大的发展空间。实证结果与理论分析、现实状况均较为相符。最后根据历史状况分析的结论,从技术进步、大力发展第三产业、推进新农村建设、教育等方面提出产业结构升级与就业结构调整协调一致,共同促进经济发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:There is a relationship between industrial structure upgrading and labor force employment, which affects economic development together. Industrial structure upgrading not only promotes the rapid development of economy, but also brings employment problems. Mainly reflected in the industrial structure and employment structure of the two changes in the inconsistency, the total employment growth rate is obviously slow. How to consider the industrial structure and employment structure together and make the two work together is not only the research hotspot of our country's current theoretical circle. According to the theoretical analysis of domestic and foreign economists, this paper further discusses the relationship between industrial structure and employment structure. The coordinated development of the two provides a huge impetus for the economy. However, due to the system, education, population and other aspects of the impact. So that they may not be able to maintain a better coordination. When the industrial structure and employment structure presents a serious departure, the industrial structure is slow to upgrade, unemployment. The industrial structure upgrading is closely related to the employment of labor force. The change of industrial development leads to the change of labor force employment, when the center of industrial development shifts. The employment of labor force will change with it. In the face of the difficulty of employment and the difficulty of employment, the change of industrial structure and employment structure has a negative impact on economic development and employment stability, which is a realistic problem in our country. On the premise of theoretical analysis, this paper explores the present situation, problems and causes of employment in China's industrial structure upgrading by comparing labor productivity and structural deviation. The empirical results show that the proportion of primary industry output value is cointegrated with the employment rate of the three industries, and it is positively related to the employment rate of the first industry. There is a negative correlation with the employment rate of the second and third industries, and the growth of the proportion of the primary industry has less promoting effect on the employment rate of the first industry than on the total employment rate of the second and third industries, so the proportion of the primary industry should be reduced. The proportion of the output value of the second industry is negative cointegration with the employment rate of the first industry, and the employment rate of the second and third industries is positive cointegration. There is a negative cointegration relationship between the proportion of the tertiary industry output value and the employment rate of the primary industry, and a positive co-integration relationship with the employment rate of the second and third industries. Finally, according to the conclusion of the historical situation analysis, from the technical progress, vigorously develop the tertiary industry, promote the construction of new countryside. Education and other aspects of industrial structure upgrading and employment structure adjustment coordinated together to promote economic development policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3;F249.2

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