纳米比亚贸易平衡对经济增长的影响

发布时间：2018-01-01 04:35

本文关键词：纳米比亚贸易平衡对经济增长的影响　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：纳米比亚独立后,经济获得了较快的增长,对外贸易额也显著上升。作为开放经济小国,同时也是发展中国家,其对外贸易对经济增长的影响是值得研究的问题。本文为了分析在纳米比亚平衡贸易对经济增长的影响,采用1980年——2015年共36年的年度数据,运用支出法国民收入中贸易平衡的贡献核算和多元线性回归模型研究贸易平衡对经济增长的影响及原因。研究的目的是揭示贸易如何影响经济增长,特别是加入南部非洲关税同盟(SACU)后的影响,再进一步分析进口和出口与经济增长关系的本质。研究结果表明,从数量上看,纳米比亚的贸易平衡对经济增长产生负向的影响。支出法GDP中的投资、消费和政府支出对经济增长均有积极影响,而净出口表现为长期逆差,贸易逆差使国民产出累计减少了7.78%。多元回归模型分析对经济增长与进口和出口贸易的关系,回归结果表明经济增长与出口额正关系,与进口额负相关,加入SACU对纳米比亚经济增长有负面影响。格兰杰因果关系检验显示GDP是出口和进口的格兰杰原因,而出口和进口却不是GDP的格兰杰原因。为了解释这一结果,进一步对进口和出口贸易的商品结构进行研究发现,纳米比亚出口的商品前五位的是宝石(钻石)、船舶、矿石、鱼类、铜制品,进口商品前五位的是车辆、船舶、锅炉设备、矿物燃料和油、电气机械设备,这表明纳米比亚仍处于经济增长的初期阶段,工业化水平不高,出口商品仍以初级产品为主,进口工业制成品和能源。从这个角度上讲,纳米比亚的贸易逆差也是为工业化提供生产资料的,短期虽然对经济增长不利,但长期是有利的。综上,本文建议想要提高出口能力和在世界市场的竞争力来刺激经济,应该首先提高实体经济部门的竞争力。增加出口产品的附加价值,如采取措施促进加工贸易提升出口产品的价值。纳米比亚还应利用加入SACU带来的优越条件和机会,通过新的贸易协定和伙伴关系为其出口提供新基础,还可以通过引进外资,促进制造工艺的改进,通过投资带动出口贸易,转变对外贸易逆差,促进经济增长。
[Abstract]:After the independence of Namibia, economy gained rapid growth, foreign trade volume also increased significantly. As a small open economy, but also the developing countries, the foreign trade is a problem worthy of study on the impact on economic growth. In order to analyze the balance of trade in Namibia, the impact on economic growth, the annual data by 1980 2015 a total of 36 years. The contribution of the trade balance with expenditure, accounting method in the national income and the multiple linear regression model of the trade balance effect on economic growth and the reasons. The purpose of the research is to reveal how trade affects economic growth, especially to the southern African Customs Union (SACU) after the impact, to further analyze the nature of the relationship between import and export and economic growth. The results show that from the quantitative point of view, Namibia's trade balance has a negative impact on economic growth. The expenditure approach GDP The effect of investment, consumption and government spending on economic growth are positive, while net exports for long-term deficit, trade deficit of the national output reduced the cumulative 7.78%. regression model to analyze the relationship between economic growth and import and export trade, the regression results show that economic growth and exports are associated with imports, negative. SACU has a negative impact on economic growth in Namibia. Grainger causality test shows that GDP is the Grainger reason of export and import, export and import and Grainger are not GDP. In order to explain the results, further commodity structure of import and export trade of goods exported from Namibia found that the top five is the gem (Diamond), ship, ore, fish, copper products, imports five of the vehicles, ships, boiler equipment, mineral fuels and oils, electrical machinery and equipment, this table Namibia is still in the early stages of economic growth, the industrialization level is not high, exports are mainly primary products, imports of manufactured goods and energy. From this perspective, Namibia's trade deficit is to provide industrialized production, although the short-term negative economic growth, but the term is favorable. In conclusion, this paper proposed to improve the export capacity and competitiveness in the world market to stimulate the economy, should first improve the competitiveness of the real economy sector. Increasing the added value of export products, such as measures to promote the processing trade to enhance the export value of the product. Namibia should use the SACU entry brings favorable conditions and opportunities, through new trade agreements and partnerships it can also provide a new export base, through the introduction of foreign capital, promote the improvement of the manufacturing process, driven by investment in export trade, change Foreign trade is easy to deficit and promotes economic growth.

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F147.7;F754.77

【相似文献】