产能过剩、技术进步与中国产业结构转型问题研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 04:37

本文关键词：产能过剩、技术进步与中国产业结构转型问题研究　出处：《华东师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济规模不断膨胀,国内生产总值长期以高于世界平均水平的增长率保持高速增长,并已然成为世界第二大经济体。但是在经济总量不断扩大的背后,包括产业结构、技术结构与供需结构在内的一系列结构性失衡问题却日益凸显。因此,为了克服中国经济进一步发展的不利因素,以化解产能过剩、推动结构调整、平衡供需矛盾为目标的"供给侧结构性改革"便成为保障中国经济获得可持续增长动力,并实现创新驱动型发展的重要手段。因此,本文尝试以迪克希特—斯蒂格利茨模型为理论基础,并根据现实经济条件的变化,对产能过剩的形成机理及产业结构优化升级的具体途径做进一步探索。基于这一研究思路,本文除了导论及文献综述之外主要包括以下内容:首先,运用迪克希特—斯蒂格利茨模型来论证技术创新对于满足消费者偏好的重要意义,同时考虑在消费者需求层次动态变化的情况下,对产能过剩产生的原因进行阐述,并构建技术模仿和专利保护模型来分析产业结构向高附加值、创新型结构优化的具体途径。其次,本文利用中国宏观经济1995年至2015年的时间序列数据,对技术进步、消费需求、人力资本、外商直接投资与产业升级之间的协整关系进行检验,并采用脉冲响应分析法验证了技术进步和外商直接投资对产业结构冲击所具有的时滞性特点以及消费需求和人力资本对催生高技术、高附加值产业所起到的重要作用,此外,本文还运用方差分解法分析了不同变量对产业升级的差异化贡献。最后,根据理论模型与实证检验的结果并结合中国的具体国情,针对关于防范产能过剩、促进技术创新以及优化经济结构进行相应的政策性探讨和研究。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China economic scale expanding, GDP in the long term is higher than the world average growth rate to maintain rapid growth, and has become the second largest economy in the world. But behind the economy expanded, including industrial structure, technical structure of a series of structural imbalance of supply and demand structure, has become increasingly prominent in order to overcome the unfavorable factors. Therefore, China further economic development, to resolve the overcapacity, promote structural adjustment, balance the contradiction between supply and demand as the goal of the "supply side structural reforms" will become the guarantee Chinese economic sustainable growth power, and an important means to achieve innovation driven development. Therefore, this paper attempts to Hitler Dick Stiglitz model as the theoretical basis, and according to the changes of current economic conditions, the formation mechanism and industrial structure optimization and upgrading of the structure of overcapacity Further explore specific ways. Based on this research ideas, in addition to the introduction and literature review mainly includes the following contents: firstly, using Dick Hitler Stiglitz model to demonstrate the significance of technology innovation to meet consumer preferences, while considering the level of consumer demand changes under the condition of reason of excess capacity is expounded, and construction technology imitation and patent protection model to analyze the industrial structure to high value-added, innovative ways to structure optimization. Secondly, this paper uses the time series data Chinese macro economy in 1995 to 2015, the consumption demand, technological progress, human capital, test the whole relation between foreign direct investment and industrial upgrading of the association, and verified by delay the progress of technology and the foreign direct investment on the industrial structure has the impact of the impulse response analysis method The characteristics and consumer demand and human capital on the birth of the high technology, high value-added industry plays an important role, in addition, this paper also use the analysis of variance contribution of different variables on the difference of industrial upgrading decomposition. Finally, according to the theoretical model and the empirical results and combining with specific conditions for China, on the prevention of excess capacity, promote policy discussion and Research on the technological innovation and optimize the economic structure.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F121.3

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