中国物流产业发展的影响因素及其与经济增长关系实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-01 22:28

本文关键词：中国物流产业发展的影响因素及其与经济增长关系实证分析　出处：《中国科学技术大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：物流产业是中国经济发展的重要组成部分,发展物流产业对于提高综合国力而言具有非常深远的意义。随着中国经济的发展,中国物流产业在物流基础设施建设、物流产业产出等方面取得巨大成就。然而,物流产业在快速发展的同时,也因中国产业结构、能源结构、区域发展不平衡和资源整合机制缺失等因素而面临成本高、效率低、环节多等问题。正是在这样的背景下,有必要研究影响中国物流产业发展的因素以及相关因素之间的联系和这些因素与经济增长之间的关系,以期推动中国物流产业可持续发展。本文通过总结与分析现有文献研究,明晰了物流产业定义、物流产业影响因素、物流产业发展路径以及物流产业与经济增长互动关系等四组概念的特点和性质。继而采取主成分分析法,从影响物流能力要素的角度,利用1991年至2011年之间的经济数据对“物流产业”影响因素进行实证分析。通过对指标数据进行主成分分析,得出影响物流能力的三个因素为：基础因素、结构因素、市场因素。此三类综合性影响因素使得对物流产业发展状况的评价相比依靠物流产出指标而言更具系统性和客观性。在此基础上,依据调整后的因素指标数据进行协整分析,得出三因素之间及其与经济增长之间具有长期均衡关系,且基础因素、结构因素与经济增长正相关。同时,通过VAR模型的建立分析了三因素之间及其与经济增长之间的短期互动关系,并依据格兰杰因果检验结果对“物流与经济增长”模糊模型进行调整,使得三大因素间的影响关系得到明确,细化了物流产业与经济增长之间的互动过程。根据实证分析结果,本文从基础建设、优化结构、产业联动三方面给出相关政策建议。最后,本文从理论型结论、实证型结论与建议型结论等三方面对文章中的研究所得进行总结,并提出后续的研究方向,即物流产业与经济发展之间的关系。
[Abstract]:The logistics industry is an important part of Chinese economic development, the development of the logistics industry has a very far-reaching significance for improving the comprehensive national strength. With the development of economy Chinese, Chinese logistics industry in the construction of logistics infrastructure, logistics industry output and achieved great achievement. However, the logistics industry is in rapid development, but also because of Chinese industry the structure, energy structure, unbalanced regional development and lack of resources integration mechanism and other factors facing high costs and low efficiency problems, many links. It is in this context, it is necessary to study the relationship between effects of Chinese logistics industry development factors and related factors and these factors and economic growth, to promote the sustainable development of logistics industry China.
This paper summarizes the existing literature research and analysis, clarifies the definition of the logistics industry, the logistics industry influence factors, characteristics and nature of the development path of the logistics industry and the logistics industry and economic growth relationship between four groups of concepts. And use the principal component analysis method, flow capacity factors from the influence of the angle between 1991 and 2011, with the economy data on the effects of logistics industry empirical analysis. Through principal component analysis on the index data, three factors that influence the logistics capacity: basic factors, structural factors, market factors. Factors affecting the three comprehensive evaluation makes the development status of the logistics industry compared to rely on the logistics output index system more and objectivity.
On this basis, a cointegration analysis based on factor index data after adjustment, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three factors and economic growth, and the basic factor, structure factor is positively correlated with economic growth. At the same time, through the establishment of VAR model to analyze three factors between economic growth and short-term relationship and, according to the Grainger causality test results of "logistics and economic growth" fuzzy model is adjusted, the three major factors influencing the relationship between the clear and refine the process of interaction between logistics industry and economic growth.
According to the results of empirical analysis, this article from the basic construction, optimize the structure of industry linkage in three aspects put forward the relevant policy suggestions. Finally, this paper summarizes the research conclusion, the article's empirical conclusions and recommendations conclusions in three aspects, and puts forward the further research direction, namely the relationship between logistics industry and economic development.

【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F259.2;F124

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