我国对外贸易和经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 17:16

本文关键词：我国对外贸易和经济增长关系研究　出处：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：对外贸易与经济增长的关系一直是经济学研究领域的常青话题,国内外学者曾从多个角度、多种方法、利用不同的数据对这一问题进行过深入的理论探讨,实证分析结果也是多种多样。改革开放到现在,我国的对外贸易不断蓬勃发展,增长速度迅猛,规模也在不断的扩大。对外贸易的迅速发展对我国经济增长起到了重要的推动作用。但是随着经济形势的波动,对外贸易也在不断的发生变化。2013年全年,我国进出口总额为41603.31亿美元,国内生产总值83492.28亿美元,分别列世界第一位和第二位。近年来,我国进出口和GDP同步增长,具有明显相关性。但具体联系路径仍值得研究,以摸清对外贸易对经济增长的真实作用。因此,研究这一关系可以为我国制定更好的外贸政策提供借鉴。基于凯恩斯宏观国民收入理论模型,出口作为总需求的一部分,是对经济循环流量的注入,具有促进经济增长作用；而进口则是对外需求的支出,是国民经济循环的一个漏出项,具有导致国民经济收缩的作用。然而,实际经济运行中的进口是丰富而多样化的,它仅仅是一个漏出项吗?另一方面,出口所涉及的产业及产品也是丰富而多样化的,各自对经济增长的影响会一样吗?源于这样的思考和疑问,本文对我国对外贸易与经济增长关系的考察,将分别探讨出口和进口与经济增长的关系。本文首先通过对贸易与经济增长关系理论的梳理,分析了出口、进口在促进经济增长中的不同路径。其次,从进出口整体发展、进出口贸易依存度,进出口商品结构分析了我国对外贸易现状以及对经济增长的影响。最后,通过ADF检验、协整分析等方法,对中国对外贸易与经济增长的关系进行了实证检验,不仅量化分析了出口总额、进口总额变动对经济增长的影响,还从不同商品结构进一步细化分析了进出口贸易对经济增长的影响。基于本文细化到商品结构的分析,得出的结论是：出口贸易和进口贸易都能促进经济增长；其中出口方面,无论资源密集型产品、劳动密集型产品,还是资本技术密集型产品的出口贸易都与我国经济增长存在正相关关系；在进口方面,中间品、消费品的进口贸易可以在一定程度上促进我国的经济增长,而资本品的进口则会对经济增长产生抑制性影响。论文最后,基于理论与实证分析的结论,提出政策建议,即不仅要看到出口贸易对经济增长的拉动作用,而且更应注重进口贸易对经济增长的不同影响；通过不断优化进出口商品结构,实现进出口贸易的平衡发展,为经济增长提供稳定持久的动力。
[Abstract]:The relationship between foreign trade and economic growth has been evergreen topics in the field of economics, domestic and foreign scholars have been from various angles, a variety of methods, using different data on this issue conducted in-depth theoretical study, empirical analysis of the results is varied. The reform and opening up to now, China's foreign trade continued to flourish. Rapid growth rate, scale is expanding. The rapid development of foreign trade has played an important role in promoting China's economic growth. But with economic fluctuations, foreign trade has been changed to.2013 year, China's import and export amounted to $4 trillion and 160 billion 331 million, gross domestic product of $8 trillion and 349 billion 228 million respectively, the first and second in the world. In recent years, China's import and export and GDP synchronous growth, with significant correlation. But the specific contact path is still worth studying, to find out the foreign trade The real economic growth. Therefore, to provide some reference for the research of this relationship can develop better for our country's foreign trade policy. Keynes macro theoretical model based on the national income, exports as a proportion of total demand, is injected into the circulation flow of the economy, with the promotion of economic growth; while imports is the external demand of spending that is a leakage of circulation of the national economy, has led to economic contraction. However, the import of the actual operation of the economy is rich and diverse, it is merely a leakage term? On the other hand, industry and export of products involved is rich and diverse, their impact on economic growth will the same? From thoughts and questions like this, this paper studies the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in China, will explore the relationship of import and export and economic growth. This paper firstly The theory of the relationship between trade and economic growth analysis, analysis of the export, import in the promotion of different path of economic growth. Secondly, from the overall development of import and export, import and export trade dependence, import and export commodity structure analysis of the current situation of China's foreign trade and the impact on economic growth. Finally, through the ADF test, cointegration analysis and other methods, to analyze the relationship of foreign trade and economic growth China, not only the quantitative analysis of the total exports, total imports in the impact on economic growth, but also from different commodity structure to further refine the analysis of the import and export trade on economic growth. This paper analysis to refine commodity structure based on the conclusion is that the export and import trade can promote economic growth; the export, regardless of resources intensive products, labor-intensive products, capital and technology intensive products The export trade has a positive correlation with the economic growth in China; in the intermediate goods imports, imports of consumer goods, trade can promote the economic growth of our country to a certain extent, while imports of capital goods will have inhibitory effect on economic growth. Finally, based on theoretical and empirical analysis conclusion and put forward policy recommendations, which should not only see the export trade on economic growth, but also should pay more attention to the different effects of import trade on economic growth; through continuous optimization of the structure of import and export commodities, to achieve a balanced development of import and export trade, provide a stable and lasting power for economic growth.

【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752;F124.1

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