江苏省经济发展的生态效率与产业结构研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 04:20

本文关键词：江苏省经济发展的生态效率与产业结构研究　出处：《东北大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：工业对江苏省经济社会发展的支撑与拉动作用十分突出。随着经济的加速发展,工业在全省经济中的主体地位不断提升。但是,江苏省传统产业占很大比重,加上传统产业资源能源消耗水平高,产品附加值低,施加于环境的危害相对严重。国家“十二五”规划中明确提出了构建“节约型社会”的目标,“节约型社会”的根本在于尽可能地合理利用自然资源,以最少的资源消耗获得最大的经济效益和社会效益。鉴于此,江苏省产业结构需要进行调整,以提高资源利用效率,转变经济增长方式的发展目标。本研究在分析生态经济效率在国内外应用实践的基础上,围绕生态经济效率的基本内涵,研究其与相关理论的关系及在实现经济增长目标和物质消耗减量目标中的桥梁作用,及其与实现江苏省产业优化升级和可持续发展的内在联系,提出了基于生态效率最优化以及经济增长同环境负荷的“脱钩”分析双重指标,对江苏省业结构进行优化调整。首先,本文基于生态足迹基本理论、资源消费种类、土地占用类型以及产业分类等构建产业生态足迹计算模型以及居民生活能耗足迹模型；基于产业结构和产业足迹模型建立产业生态效率计算模型(足迹强度模型)、环境载荷同经济增长的“脱钩”分析模型以及资源占用的产业结构分解模型,用以度量分析产业发展对资源效率利用情况、环境负荷或资源消耗与GDP的相对“脱钩”关系、经济规模以及产业结构和产业足迹强度分别在不同时期对总足迹变化影响的程度、特点及规律。其次,基于新古典经济理论推导出三次产业的生产函数模型,建立新增固定资产投资占各产业GDP比例的回归方程,同时结合江苏省“十二五”就业人口规划给出了GDP增长率预测方法,用以对江苏省2011～2015年产业GDP增长的预测。然后,以产业结构、足迹模型、生态效率模型为基础,结合一般线性规划模型建立以生态效率最大为目标的产业结构优化模型。最后,应用以上研究方法和江苏省历年统计数据,对江苏省2000～2010年的产业结构以及生态利用效率进行了系统研究,找出存在的问题,并应用相关模型及算法对江苏省产业结构以及生态效率进行预测分析并优化。研究结果表明,2000～2010年间,江苏省第三产业生态效率最高,且呈逐年增大趋势,最高达到了5.87万元／公顷；其次是GDP比重最高的第二产业,呈逐年增大趋势,但增幅很小；生态效率最低的是第一产业,近10年来变化幅度不大,维持在0.4万元／公顷左右。根据资源占用的产业结构分解模型对生态足迹进行分解结果看,经济增长是导致足迹增加的因素,年均变化量为0.1816亿公顷,产业结构和足迹强度总体来说是对足迹增长起抑制作用,年均变化量分别为-0.0466亿公顷和-0.0205亿公顷。通过对江苏省2001～2010年经济增长同环境负荷的“脱钩”分析可以看出,江苏省生态足迹强度年均下降率为0.042,单位GDP环境负荷或资源消耗年下降率的临界值平均为0.117,后者是前者的3倍,说明快速的经济发展必定会加快环境负荷或资源消耗的快速上升,环境负荷与GDP增长未“脱钩”,所以必须进行产业结构调整,既要满足一定的经济增长,同时降低环境负荷或资源消耗的上升速度。基于以上分析,以历史数据以及相关计算结果为基础对江苏省2011～2015年生态效率及GDP增长率进行预测,分别在生态效率不变以及生态效率变化两种情况下对产业结构进行优化,得出三大产业比重分别为0.4,0.58,0.38,GDP年均增量率为9.88%,满足江苏省“十二五”规划的GDP增长10%的标准。在最优产业结构条件下,根据“脱钩”分析判断标准得出第一产业基本实现了环境负荷同经济增长的“脱钩”,而二、三产业及综合产业环境负荷仍未与经济增长“脱钩”。
[Abstract]:The support and the pulling effect of industry on the economic and social development in Jiangsu province is very prominent. With the acceleration of economic development, industrial dominant position in the economy has been increasing. However, the traditional industry of Jiangsu province accounted for a large proportion, and the traditional industry of resource and energy consumption level is high, products with low added value, applied to the relative environmental hazards serious. National "12th Five-Year" plan clearly put forward to build a "conservation oriented society", "basic economic society" is to use natural resources reasonably and maximize the economic benefits and social benefits with minimal resource consumption. In view of this, Jiangsu Province, the industrial structure needs to be adjusted, in order to improve the efficiency of resource use development goals, change the mode of economic growth. This research is based on the analysis of ecological and economic efficiency of application at home and abroad, the basic focus on eco efficiency Han, study the relationship with related theory and Bridge in the goal of economic growth and material consumption reduction target in effect, and realize the internal relations between the optimization of industrial upgrading and sustainable development in Jiangsu Province, based on eco efficiency optimization and economic growth with environmental load of "decoupling" analysis of double index, optimize the Jiangsu province industry structure. Firstly, the basic theory of Ecological Footprint Based on resource consumption type, construction industry of ecological footprint model and residential energy consumption footprint model of land type and industry classification; industrial structure and the establishment of Industrial Ecological Footprint Model Based on efficiency calculation model (footprint intensity model), environmental load with economic growth "decoupling" analysis model and resource occupation industrial structure decomposition model is used to measure analysis on the industrial development of resources. The rate of utilization is relatively "decoupling" relationship between resource consumption and environmental load or GDP, economic scale and industrial structure and industrial footprint intensity respectively in the different stages of the total footprint change degree, characteristics and rules. Secondly, derivation of the new classical economic theory from three industrial production function model based on the regression equation of new investment in fixed assets accounted for the proportion of GDP industry, combined with Jiangsu province "12th Five-Year" employment planning prediction method was presented for the growth rate of GDP, forecast in Jiangsu province 2011~2015 years GDP industry growth. Then, with the industrial structure, the ecological footprint model, efficiency model, combined with the general linear programming model and optimization model is established the industrial structure to maximize the ecological efficiency. Finally, using the above research methods and statistics data of Jiangsu Province, the industrial structure of Jiangsu province for 2000~2010 years And the ecological efficiency were studied, find out the existing problems, and application related model and algorithm for forecast analysis and optimization of the industrial structure of Jiangsu province and ecological efficiency. The results show that 2000 to 2010 years, the ecological efficiency of the third industry in Jiangsu province is the highest, and the increasing trend, the highest reached 58 thousand and 700 yuan / ha the second is GDP; the highest proportion of the second industry, increasing trend, but the increase is small; the lowest ecological efficiency is the first industry, little change in the past 10 years, maintained at 4 thousand yuan / hm2. According to industry structure resource decomposition model of ecological footprint decomposition results, economic growth is the result of the factors of footprint increased to 18 million 160 thousand hectares, annual variation, industrial structure and footprint intensity is generally inhibitory effect on the growth of annual change footprint, respectively -0.04 6 billion 600 million hectares and -0.0205 million hectares. Based on the economic growth of Jiangsu province from 2001 to 2010 with the environmental load of "decoupling" analysis shows that the ecological footprint of Jiangsu Province in the strength of an average annual decline rate of 0.042, the critical value of decreasing rate of environmental load or resource consumption per unit of GDP years with an average of 0.117, which is 3 times the former, the fast the economic development will accelerate the rapid rise of the environmental load or resource consumption, environmental load and GDP growth is not "decoupling", so we must adjust the industrial structure, not only to meet certain economic growth, while reducing environmental load and resource consumption rising speed. Based on the above analysis, based on historical data and related calculation results based on the eco efficiency of Jiangsu province from 2011 to 2015 and GDP growth rate forecast, the industrial structure optimization in two kinds of the same changes in the ecological efficiency and ecological efficiency respectively. The proportion of the three industries, respectively 0.4,0.58,0.38, GDP average annual incremental rate of 9.88%, to meet in 12th Five-Year in Jiangsu province "planning 10% GDP growth standards. In the optimal industrial structure condition, according to the" decoupling "analysis and judgment criteria to obtain the basic realization of the first industry environmental load with economic growth, and the two" decoupling "three, industry and comprehensive industry environment and economic growth has not yet load decoupling.

【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

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