我国经济开放度与经济增长关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 06:05

本文关键词：我国经济开放度与经济增长关系实证研究　出处：《云南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,遵循改革开放的政策方针，我国逐渐加大经济开放程度,加快经济结构的调整和升级,实现了经济的快速增长。目前，全球经济一体化进程加速，我国与国际经济市场联系越来越紧密，加大经济开放力度，，发展开放型经济仍将是我国长期内的经济发展战略。一般认为，对外经济开放促进了经济的增长，但这种促进机制在长期内是否均衡稳定，在短期内是如何变化，近年来的发展趋势如何，对此研究甚少。实际上，受经济改革、各种各样的外界冲击和政策变化等不可观测因素的影响，我国的经济结构正在逐渐发生变化，这在一定程度上会影响对外经济开放对我国经济增长的拉动作用。尤其近年来，服务贸易得到快速发展，其总额占国内生产总值的比重逐年增大，并且对经济增长的拉动作用越来越明显。因此，国内外众多学者基于C-D生产函数的索洛余值法，已不能完全反应经济增长的全部动因。本文在改进研究方法的基础上，通过实证分析深入探讨我国经济开放度与经济增长之间的关系,全文共包括以下四大部分。第一部分主要介绍国内外学者对经济开放度与经济增长关系的研究现状，通过梳理国内外相关文献，了解经济开放度和经济增长的涵义及其影响因素，对经济开放度与经济增长之间关系的理论基础进行深入研究。第二部分主要是在1982-2011年我国经济增长与对外经济贸易数据的基础上，结合我国的现状，选取了贸易开放度、投资开放度、金融开放度、实际关税率和服务开放度指标度量我国的经济开放水平，并利用因子分析方法计算得出我国的总体经济开放度；接着对各度量指标以及总体经济开放度进行描述性统计分析，结果表明：除实际关税率外，各指标都呈现出上升趋势，而实际关税率作为度量经济开放度的反向指标，则呈现出下降趋势。第三部分主要是建立模型对我国经济开放度与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。首先，应用协整理论对我国经济增长与经济开放度各度量指标度建立协整回归模型，结果表明：变量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系，其中贸易开放度、投资开放度、金融开放度和服务开放度对经济增长存在正影响，而实际关税率对经济增长存在负影响；其次，对我国总体经济开放度与经济增长做协整回归，结果表明：在长期内经济开放度对经济增长具有稳定的促进作用；接着对我国总体经济开放度与经济增长建立误差修正模型，结果显示：短期内经济开放度对经济增长的促进作用会偏离长期水平，但反向误差修正机制会将其逐渐拉回长期稳定水平；最后引入状态空间模型，将外界的不可观测因素并入可观测方程，从微观上把握各指标每一年对经济增长的实际贡献度，并动态展示其发展趋势，得出经济开放度对经济危机具有预警机制的猜测。最后，在以上实证分析结果的基础上得出结论，并结合我国实际情况提出四条建议：优化对外贸易结构，促进经济增长；加大对外投资力度，高效利用外资；扩大金融开放程度，促进经济增长；大力发展服务贸易，提升服务贸易国际竞争力。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, follow the policy of reform and opening up policy, China's increasing economic openness, accelerate economic restructuring and upgrading, to achieve a rapid economic growth. At present, the accelerating process of global economic integration, China's economy and international market more closely linked, greater economic openness, the development of the open economy will is China's long term economic development strategy. It is generally considered that foreign economic openness promotes economic growth, but the promoting mechanism in the long term equilibrium is stable, in the short term is how to change, how the development trend in recent years, there is very little research on it. In fact, affected by the economic reform, a variety of external shocks and policy the change of unobservable factors, China's economic structure is changing gradually, this will affect the economic opening up of China's economic growth to a certain extent Effect. Especially in recent years, the rapid development of service trade, the total proportion of GDP increased year by year, and the economic growth is more and more obvious. Therefore, many scholars at home and abroad based on C-D production function Solow residual value, has not completely against all motives of the economic growth. Based on the improvement of the methods, through empirical analysis of the relationship between China's economic openness and economic growth, the thesis includes the following four parts.
The first part mainly introduces the research status of domestic and foreign scholars on the relationship between economic openness and economic growth, through the relevant literature, understand the definition and influence factors of economic openness and economic growth, the theoretical foundation of the relationship between economic openness and economic growth are analyzed.
The second part is mainly on the 1982-2011 foundation for China's economic growth and foreign economic and trade data, combined with the current situation of our country, the trade openness, investment openness and financial openness, the degree of index to measure the economic level of our country open the actual tariff rates and services open, and the use of factor analysis calculated in China the overall economic opening method; then to the measurement index and the overall economic openness descriptive statistical analysis results showed that the actual tariff rate, the index showed a rising trend, while the actual tariff rate as a measure of the reverse index of economic opening, showing a downward trend.
The third part is to build the model of China's economic openness and economic growth empirical analysis. Firstly, the application of cointegration theory to China's economic growth and economic openness of the metrics to establish cointegration regression model. The results show that there is long-term stable equilibrium relationship between variables, the degree of openness. Investment openness, financial openness and Service Openness on economic growth have positive effects, while the actual tariff rate has a negative impact on economic growth; secondly, the opening of China's overall economy and economic growth cointegration regression, the results show that in the long term economic openness and economic growth has a stable role in promoting then the open; China's overall economic growth and establish the error correction model, results showed that: in the short term economic opening to promote economic growth will deviate from the long-term average, but The error correction mechanism will be gradually to the long-term stable level; finally introduce the state space model, the unobserved factors can be incorporated into the observation equation, from the microscopic to grasp each index each year to the economic growth of the actual contribution, and the dynamic display of the development trend of the economic openness and economic crisis warning the mechanism of speculation.
Finally, in the above empirical analysis based on the results of the conclusion, and put forward four suggestions to China's actual situation, optimize the foreign trade structure, promote economic growth; increase foreign investment, efficient use of foreign capital; expand financial openness, promote economic growth; vigorously develop the service trade, enhance the international competitiveness of service trade.

【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F224

【参考文献】