经济大国增长动力结构演进路径与逻辑异质性分析及其对中国的启示——基于1960～2015年美、日发展经验

发布时间：2018-01-03 06:16

本文关键词：经济大国增长动力结构演进路径与逻辑异质性分析及其对中国的启示——基于1960～2015年美、日发展经验　出处：《税务与经济》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：比较分析美、日经济大国在发展各阶段的动力结构特征,探寻经济大国增长动力演变逻辑和规律,可为"新常态"下中国经济增长需求侧动力转变提供经验借鉴和启示。研究表明:当前中国经济发展正处于走向"成熟"阶段;美、日经济大国在不同发展阶段驱动经济增长的动力结构不同,增长动力结构存在不断演进过程;美、日经济增长动力结构演进路径和逻辑存在异质性,要素禀赋丰裕的美国经济增长最终依靠国内消费驱动,而要素禀赋匮乏的日本经济增长最终依靠国内消费和出口共同驱动。从长期来看,中国经济增长动力结构演进过程会遵循美国这种经济规模大且要素禀赋丰裕大国的演进路径与逻辑,最终走向依靠国内消费来驱动经济增长;从短期发展看,中国经济增长动力结构演进过程也会经历日本依靠国内消费和出口共同驱动经济增长阶段。
[Abstract]:This paper makes a comparative analysis of the dynamic structure characteristics of the major economic powers of the United States and Japan in various stages of development, and explores the logic and law of the dynamic evolution of the growth forces of the major economic powers. It can provide experience and inspiration for the demand-side dynamic transformation of China's economic growth under the "new normal". The research shows that the current economic development of China is in the "mature" stage; The dynamic structure of economic growth is different in different stages of economic development in the United States and Japan, and the dynamic structure of economic growth is evolving constantly. There is heterogeneity in the evolution path and logic of the dynamic structure of economic growth in the United States and Japan, and the abundant factor endowment of the American economic growth ultimately depends on domestic consumption. And the lack of factor endowment of Japan's economic growth ultimately depends on domestic consumption and exports driven together. In the long run. The evolution process of China's economic growth dynamic structure will follow the evolution path and logic of the large economic scale and abundant factor endowment of the United States, and eventually it will depend on domestic consumption to drive economic growth. From the perspective of short-term development, the evolution of China's economic growth dynamic structure will also go through the stage of Japan's economic growth driven by domestic consumption and exports.
【作者单位】：新疆大学经济与管理学院;新疆发展和改革委经济研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:41661112) 教育部哲学社科发展报告项目(项目编号:13JBGP029);教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(项目编号:13JJD790029) 新疆自治区社科基金项目(项目编号:14BJY018) 新疆大学经济与管理学院“丝路科研奖学金”项目
【分类号】：F124;F131.3;F171.2
【正文快照】： 自改革开放以来,中国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,经济年均增长接近10%,人均GDP翻了25倍,2010年经济总量跃升为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体,实现了跨越式发展。但进入2011年前后,中国经济增长呈明显放缓态势,增速滑入7%区间,潜在经济增速趋于下降,驱动经济增长的传统消费

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