中国的产能过剩:程度测算与行业分布

发布时间：2018-01-03 10:27

本文关键词：中国的产能过剩:程度测算与行业分布　出处：《经济研究》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：企业的生产过程是一个跨期动态决策过程,传统效率评价方法(非参数前沿面分析方法和随机前沿面分析方法)只应用初始投入和最终产出计算效率值,而忽视企业生产过程中的跨期经营活动,从而可能错误估计中国的产能过剩程度。为此,本文拓展了ToneTsutsui(2010)提出的DSBM模型,采用基于冗余的DSBM模型重新测度了中国省际工业产能利用率。研究表明:(1)静态DEA方法与动态DEA方法测度的产能利用率存在显著差异。静态方法由于忽略企业的动态决策过程,倾向于低估产能利用率、高估产能过剩以及产生产能利用率过度波动的假象。而本文动态方法测度的我国平均产能利用率为60.68%,确实存在严重的产能过剩问题,并具有明显的顺周期特征。(2)基于注册类型、轻重行业以及规模的动态分析发现,产能过剩问题在各个层面均存在。国有企业产能利用率高于其他注册类型企业;重工业产能利用率低于轻工业产能利用率;大规模企业产能利用率低于中小规模企业。(3)东部地区不存在产能过剩问题,而中部、西部以及东北均存在严重的产能过剩问题,这种现象在不同注册类型、行业以及规模层面均存在,说明根植于不同地区的市场化水平、开放程度以及产权保护力度等因素可能是解释产能过剩地区差异的终极原因。
[Abstract]:The production process is a dynamic decision-making process, the efficiency of traditional evaluation methods (non parametric frontier approach and stochastic frontier analysis method) to calculate efficiency only using initial input and final output, while ignoring the production process of the intertemporal business activities, which may China the wrong estimation of the degree of overcapacity. Therefore, this paper extends the ToneTsutsui (2010) proposed DSBM model, DSBM model is used to re measure the redundancy Chinese provincial industrial capacity utilization. Based on the research shows that: (1) to measure the static DEA method and dynamic DEA method of capacity utilization rate has significant difference. The static method due to the neglect of dynamic enterprise decision-making process, tend to underestimate the capacity utilization, production capacity and production capacity utilization to overestimate the excess volatility of excess illusion. In China the dynamic method measure the average capacity utilization rate of 60.68%, indeed There exists serious overcapacity problem, and has obvious cyclical characteristics. (2) based on the type of registration, the severity of industry and scale dynamic analysis found that the problem of excess production capacity exists at all levels of state-owned enterprises. The capacity utilization rate is higher than that of other types of registered enterprises; heavy industry capacity utilization rate is lower than the light industrial capacity utilization; the capacity utilization rate is lower than the large-scale enterprises of small and medium enterprises. (3) there is no problem of overcapacity in eastern and central, Western and northeast are serious overcapacity problem, this phenomenon in different industries as well as the registration type, scale level are rooted in the market, that the level of different regions, factors of openness and property rights protection may be the ultimate reason for regional differences of excess production capacity.

【作者单位】：广州大学经济与统计学院;西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心;
【基金】：张少华主持的国家自然科学基金常规面上项目“中国的‘中部迷失’问题:典型事实、形成机理及宏观后果”(71673253) 浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题一般项目“中国能源效率提高之谜:基于测度方法和作用机制的破解研究”(17NDJC253YB) 浙江省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地浙江理工大学应用经济学基地项目(2015YJYB01,2016YJYB09) 国家留学基金项目的资助
【分类号】：F124;F224
【正文快照】： *张少华,广州大学经济与统计学院,邮政编码:510006,电子信箱:ahua1688@126.com;蒋伟杰,西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心,邮政编码:710049。本文为张少华主持的国家自然科学基金常规面上项目“中国的‘中部迷失’问题:典型事实、形成机理及宏观后果”(71673253)、浙江省哲学社会

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