上海市产业结构调整与住房价格变动的理论和实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 11:32

本文关键词：上海市产业结构调整与住房价格变动的理论和实证研究　出处：《华东师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作为我国城镇化水平和经济发展水平最高的城市之一,上海市一直秉持着"海纳百川,开明睿智"的开放包容的城市精神。但上海市持续飙涨的房价对城市的人力资源供给和产业结构的优化升级都造成了一定的阻碍。另外,上海市目前的产业结构状况和调整优化的速度距规划的目标都尚有一定距离。那么上海市产业结构调整与住房价格的关系是什么?高房价的背后有多少是产业结构优化升级的因素?房价过高对产业结构调整和优化会产生何种程度的影响?有鉴于此,本文综合运用文献研究、理论研究和实证研究方法,对上海市产业结构调整与住房价格变动的相互关系进行了探讨。在明晰产业结构调整和测度工具及住宅定价理论的基础上,本文分别对产业结构调整与住房价格变动的双向影响机制进行分析。之后,对上海市的产业结构状况和住房市场情况进行了分析。实证部分采用多元线性回归模型对上海市整体情况进行估计,之后选取三个代表性区域——徐汇区、宝山区和奉贤区,分别代表中心城区、近郊区和远郊区进行实证分析。分别对产业结构的合理化和高级化与住房价格的双向影响关系以及住房价格对三次产业从业人员及产出的影响进行了研究。研究结果表明,就上海市整体而言,产业结构的合理化和高级化均对住房价格上涨有显著的推动作用;住房价格在一定范围内的上涨也会促使产业结构趋向合理化和高级化,但房价过高会显著减弱其对产业结构调整优化的促进作用。住房价格上涨对第一和第二产业具有挤出效应,但能带动第三产业的发展。具体到区域层面,中心城区住房价格与产业结构合理化之间并无显著的相互影响,但产业结构的高级化与房价之间存在相互推升作用。产业结构的合理化能显著地推动远郊区住房价格的上涨,但远郊区房价上涨对当地的产业结构高级化程度并无显著影响。近郊区产业结构的合理化和高级化与住房价格之间存在显著的相互促进作用。另外,人力资源是推动产业结构调整优化的重要力量。最后根据研究结论提出针对性的政策建议。决策者制定政策尤其是房价调控政策时,应将产业结构因素纳入考量范围。一个地区的住房价格要与其经济发展水平及产业结构相适应。应正确看待产业优化升级所带来的房价上涨的压力,并采取住房保障等措施有针对性地解决不同产业从业人员的住房问题。中心城区要密切监控房价波动,严控房地产泡沫;近郊区要注意产业结构的调整优化与住房价格之间的平衡;远郊区除控制房价涨幅,更要大力发展经济,增加居民收入。要制定城市内部差异化发展战略,合理引导城市的产业梯度转移和产业结构优化升级,促进城市产业结构和住房市场的良性互动发展。
[Abstract]:As one of the city of China's urbanization level and the highest level of economic development, Shanghai city has always been the principle of "all rivers run into sea, enlightened wisdom" open and inclusive spirit of the city. But the upgrade and optimization of Shanghai city continued soaring home prices on the city's supply of human resources and industrial structure have caused some obstacles. In addition, the city of Shanghai the current situation of industrial structure adjustment and optimization speed from the planning objectives are still some distance. So what is the relationship between the adjustment of industrial structure in Shanghai city and the housing price? How much is behind the high prices of the upgrading of the industrial structure optimization factors? High prices to adjust and optimize the industrial structure will affect the extent to which this? This paper uses literature research, theoretical research and empirical research methods, the relationship between Shanghai city industrial structure adjustment and the housing price changes are discussed in. The definition of industrial structure adjustment and measurement tools and residential pricing theory, this paper carries on the analysis to the mutual influence mechanism of industrial structure adjustment and the housing price changes. After that, Shanghai city on the situation of the industrial structure and the housing market conditions are analyzed. The empirical part uses the multiple linear regression model of the overall situation of Shanghai city was estimated. After selecting three representative regions of Xuhui District, Baoshan District and Fengxian District, representing the city center, the empirical analysis in suburban areas and outer suburbs respectively. Bidirectional effects of rationalization of industrial structure and upgrade and housing prices and housing prices to three industrial workers and output were studied. The research results it shows that Shanghai city as a whole, the rationalization of the industrial structure and level have a significant role in promoting the housing prices of housing; In a context of rising prices will also promote industrial structure more reasonable and advanced, but high prices will significantly weaken the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure promotion. Housing prices has a crowding out effect on the first and the second industry, but to promote the development of the third industry. Specific to the regional level, between the city center housing the price and the rationalization of industrial structure does not significantly affect each other, but there is interaction between the advanced role in pushing up prices and industrial structure. The rationalization of the industrial structure can significantly promote the outer suburbs of the housing prices, but prices rose significantly influence on suburb industrial structure level is not significant between local. To promote the interaction between industrial structure rationalization and high-class suburban areas with housing prices. In addition, human resources is an important force to promote the optimization of industrial structure adjustment According to the research conclusion. Finally put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. Decision makers especially the price control policy, industrial structure factors should be considered. Compatible with the level of economic development and industrial structure to an area of housing prices should be a correct view of optimization caused by industrial upgrading and upward pressure on prices. Take the housing security measures targeted to solve the housing problems of employees of different industries. The city center should closely monitor price fluctuations, strictly controlling the real estate bubble; suburban areas should pay attention to adjusting the industrial structure optimization and housing price balance; suburban areas in addition to control prices increase, but also to develop the economy and increase the income of residents to formulate the internal differences. City development strategy, reasonable guide industrial gradient transfer and upgrading of the industrial structure of the city, promote the city industrial structure and residential housing The sound and interactive development of the field.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F121.3;F299.23

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