贸易开放对中国城乡居民收入差距的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 23:02

本文关键词：贸易开放对中国城乡居民收入差距的影响研究　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着贸易开放政策的推进,中国城乡居民的收入差距不断扩大。根据权威机构的相关统计,1978年中国的基尼系数仅为0.25,到了2000年以后,基尼系数大幅度上升,整体运行在国际公认的0.4警戒线以上。除国家统计局公布的数据外,一些影响颇深的学者也致力于这方面的研究。2012年.12月9日,西南财经大学中国家庭金融调查与研究中心公布有关基尼系数的最新调查结果,2010年中国家庭的基尼系数为0.61,远远大于0.44的全世界平均水平。不论是官方公布的数据还是民间调查得到的数据,尽管抽样方法和统计口径有些差异,但是这些数据足以说明,中国的收入差距不断增大已经成为不争的事实。根据国际贸易与收入分配的相关理论,贸易在一定程度上会对收入分配产生影响。基于中国三十多年改革开放的实际情况,直观上,我们目睹了中国的贫富差距伴随着贸易开放的逐步深入而日益扩大。那么,我们随之产生了一系列的疑问：贸易开放是否对中国城乡间居民的收入分配产生影响,影响程度如何?它是通过哪种途径影响的?它究竟是扩大还是缩小了城乡间居民的收入差距? 本文首先分析了中国贸易开放和城乡居民收入差距的现状,外贸总量不断攀升,对外依存度急剧上升,外贸产品结构升级,而城乡居民收入差距却在不断拉大；接着,基于中国对外贸易的主要特点,对贸易开放影响收入分配的机制和途径进行了深入探讨,并主要从贸易政策、商品价格机制、经济增长、外商直接投资、产业结构和政府这六个角度来分析贸易开放对收入分配的影响机制；最后,利用1985-2012年时间序列数据,采用相关分析、ADF单位根检验、JJ协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,得出以下结论：对外依存度、出口依存度、进口依存度、人均实际GDP的增长率、高等教育普及程度的增长率以及城镇化水平的增长率都是基尼系数的Granger原因,并且对外依存度、出口依存度、进口依存度和城镇化水平的增长率这四个变量的提高会加剧我国城乡收入差距。其中,对外依存度每上升1%,基尼系数就增长52.5%；出口依存度每上升1%,基尼系数就增长87.9%；进口依存度每上升1%,基尼系数将增加124.7%。从实证结果我们不难发现,对外依存度、出口依存度和进口依存度都是基尼系数的Granger原因;随着对外依存度、出口依存度和进口依存度的提高,我国城乡收入差距呈现不断扩大的趋势。换句话说,出口和进口共同拉大了我国城乡收入差距,并且进口的扩大作用明显高于出口。这显然与SS定理相悖。贸易开放除了从贸易政策、商品价格机制、经济增长、外商直接投资以及政府这五个途径影响城乡收入差距以外,笔者从以下三个途径解释了本文的实证结果。首先,贸易开放通过恶化贸易条件指数拉大我国城乡收入差距；其次,贸易开放通过拉大技能工人与非技能工人之间的收入差距从而扩大我国城乡收入差距；最后贸易开放通过加快我国的城镇化进程,进一步加剧城乡收入差距。
[Abstract]:With the open trade policies to promote urban and rural residents, China the widening income gap. According to authoritative statistics, in 1978 the Gene coefficient China was only 0.25, after 2000, the Gene coefficient increased to a great extent, the overall operation in more than 0.4 of the internationally recognized warning line. In addition to the national Bureau of statistics. Study on.2012 deep influence scholars committed to the annual.12 month 9 days, the latest survey results on Gene coefficient of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics announced China family financial investigation and Research Center, 2010 Chinese family Gene coefficient is 0.61, greater than 0.44 of the world average level. Whether to get official data or the folk investigation data, although sampling and statistical methods are different, but the data shows that the increase of China income gap has become an indisputable Fact.
According to the relevant theories of international trade and income distribution, trade will have an impact on the income distribution in a certain extent. The actual situation, Chinese thirty years of reform and opening up based on intuitively, we have witnessed China the gap between the rich and the poor with trade and opening up gradually growing. So, we produced a series of questions: whether the open trade income distribution between urban and rural residents of Chinese impact, influence how? It is affected by what kind of way? What is it expand or shrink the urban and rural residents income gap?
This paper first analyzes the status quo of China trade openness and the urban-rural income gap, the foreign trade volume continues to rise, the degree of dependence on foreign trade increased sharply, to upgrade the product structure, and the urban-rural income gap is widening; then, the main characteristics of Chinese foreign trade based on trade openness and income distribution mechanism and the way of the in-depth study, and mainly from trade policy, commodity price mechanism, economic growth, foreign direct investment, the six aspects of industrial structure and government to analyze the influence mechanism of trade liberalization on income distribution; finally, using the 1985-2012 time series data, using correlation analysis, ADF unit root test, JJ cointegration test and Grainger causality test, draw the following conclusions: the dependence on foreign trade, export dependence, dependence on imports, per capita real GDP growth rate, the growth rate of the popularity of Higher Education The level of urbanization and the growth rate is the Granger reason of Gene coefficient, and the dependence on foreign trade, export dependence, import dependence and the level of urbanization and the growth rate of the four variables increase will exacerbate the income gap between urban and rural areas. Among them, external dependence is increased by 1%, the Gene coefficient on export growth of 52.5%; the degree of dependence on Gene coefficient increased by 1%, growth of 87.9%; import dependency increased by 1%, the Gene coefficient will be increased by 124.7%.
From the empirical results we find that the degree of external dependence, dependence on export and import dependence is the Granger reason of Gini coefficient; with external dependence, dependence on export and import dependence of China's urban-rural income gap presents a trend of expansion. In other words, export and import of common widening China's income gap between urban and rural areas, and expand the role of imports was significantly higher than that of exports. This is clearly contrary. Trade openness and SS theorem, apart from trade policy, commodity price mechanism, economic growth, the income gap between the outside of the influence of these five ways of urban and rural areas of foreign direct investment and the government, the author explains the empirical results of this paper from the following three ways first, trade openness by worsening terms of trade index pull the income gap between urban and rural areas in our country; secondly, by widening the trade openness between skilled workers and unskilled workers so as to expand the income gap The income gap between urban and rural areas in China is greater, and the last trade opening is further exacerbated by the urbanization process in China, which further aggravates the income gap between urban and rural areas.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752;F124.7

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