哈尔滨市低碳经济发展系统动力学模型构建及对策研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 05:24

本文关键词：哈尔滨市低碳经济发展系统动力学模型构建及对策研究　出处：《东北林业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：发展低碳经济为摆脱能源危机、缓解环境压力开辟了一条新途径,成为各国发展的战略共识。我国对低碳经济发展极为重视,已在全国范围内组织开展低碳省区和低碳城市试点建设工作。哈尔滨市近年来经济总产值稳步提高,但是高耗能、高污染的经济发展模式已对生态环境造成了严重破坏,极大地制约了哈尔滨市的可持续发展。因此,如何减少以二氧化碳为主的温室气体排放、实现节能减排、发展低能耗、低污染、低排放的低碳经济,是哈尔滨市有待解决的紧迫问题。本研究构建了哈尔滨市低碳经济发展系统动力学模型,并模拟2005-2020年间哈尔滨市低碳经济发展状况。本研究从系统科学的角度出发,在明确了哈尔滨市低碳经济发展目标的基础之上,分析了哈尔滨市低碳经济发展现状,指出了现阶段哈尔滨市经济方面、能源方面、碳排放方面存在的问题,探讨了哈尔滨市低碳经济发展主要影响因素。以系统动力学为研究方法,将哈尔滨市低碳经济发展系统看作一个整体,确定系统边界,研究了哈尔滨市低碳经济发展系统高阶次、多重反馈循环和高度非线性的因果反馈关系,构建系统动力学模型,模拟哈尔滨市低碳经济发展的运动规律与过程。在此基础之上进行系统动态模拟,动态模拟结果表明,在保持现有产业结构、单位GDP科技投入、能源消费结构及居民低碳意识等不变的情况下,哈尔滨市低碳经济发展“十二五”目标可以实现但中长期目标难以实现,需对模型进行政策模拟以探究相应对策。本研究对哈尔滨市低碳经济发展系统动力学模型进行政策模拟,提出了有定量数据支持的低碳经济发展对策建议。本研究基于模型初始状态模拟结果,结合低碳经济发展目标调整模型参数值,对模型进行不同情境下的政策模拟,并对模拟结果进行对比分析,以定量数据为支撑,紧密联系哈尔滨市低碳经济发展的实际情况,提出加快产业结构调整、加大科技投入、调整能源消费结构、提高居民低碳意识、多因素综合调整能够实现哈尔滨市低碳经济发展目标。本文研究结果对于政府及相关机构具体规划低碳经济发展具有借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:The development of low-carbon economy has opened up a new way to shake off the energy crisis and relieve the environmental pressure, and has become the strategic consensus of the development of various countries. China attaches great importance to the development of low-carbon economy. The pilot construction of low-carbon provinces and low carbon cities has been organized and carried out nationwide. Harbin's economic output value has steadily increased in recent years, but the energy consumption is high. The high pollution economic development model has caused serious damage to the ecological environment, which has greatly restricted the sustainable development of Harbin. Therefore, how to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions mainly based on carbon dioxide, achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. Developing low-energy, low-pollution and low-emission low-carbon economy is an urgent problem to be solved in Harbin. This study constructs the system dynamics model of low-carbon economy development in Harbin, and simulates the development of low-carbon economy in Harbin from 2005 to 2020. This study starts from the point of view of system science. On the basis of defining the development goal of low-carbon economy in Harbin, this paper analyzes the present development situation of low-carbon economy in Harbin, and points out the existing problems in economic, energy and carbon emission in Harbin at this stage. This paper discusses the main factors affecting the development of low-carbon economy in Harbin. Taking the system dynamics as the research method, the development system of low-carbon economy in Harbin is regarded as a whole and the system boundary is determined. The high-order, multi-feedback cycle and highly nonlinear causal feedback relationship of Harbin low-carbon economic development system are studied, and the system dynamics model is constructed. Simulation of Harbin low-carbon economic development of the movement law and process. On the basis of the system dynamic simulation, the dynamic simulation results show that in the maintenance of the existing industrial structure, unit GDP science and technology investment. Under the situation of energy consumption structure and residents' low carbon consciousness, the 12th Five-Year Plan of low-carbon economic development in Harbin can be achieved, but it is difficult to achieve in the medium and long term. The policy simulation of the model is needed to explore the corresponding countermeasures. In this study, the policy simulation of Harbin low-carbon economic development system dynamics model is carried out, and the countermeasures and suggestions for low-carbon economy development supported by quantitative data are put forward. This study is based on the initial state simulation results of the model. Combined with the low carbon economic development goals to adjust the model parameters, the model under different scenarios of policy simulation, and the simulation results are compared and analyzed, with quantitative data as the support. In close connection with the actual situation of low-carbon economy development in Harbin, it is proposed to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, increase scientific and technological input, adjust energy consumption structure, and improve residents' low carbon awareness. Multi-factor comprehensive adjustment can realize the development goal of low-carbon economy in Harbin. The results of this paper can be used for reference for the government and related institutions to plan the development of low-carbon economy.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;N941.3

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