城镇化视角下的中国肉类消费研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 09:47

本文关键词：城镇化视角下的中国肉类消费研究　出处：《中国农业科学院》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,随着城镇化进程的加快,我国居民肉类消费水平和消费结构发生了巨大的变化。城乡居民人均肉类消费量显著增加,肉类消费结构明显优化,猪肉占比下降明显,禽肉占比增长迅速,牛羊肉消费比重也有所增加。与此同时,肉类消费也面临着供给不足,城乡间、高低收入群体间的消费差异较大,质量安全问题频发等问题。随着新型城镇化战略的提出,城镇化将对肉类消费带来新一轮的冲击,其以人为本的核心内涵也对现有的肉类消费差距现状提出了挑战。因此,准确地评估和把握城镇化对于城乡居民肉类消费及差距的动态影响,一方面关系到统筹城乡发展的新型城镇化战略的推进,另一方面也关系到肉类产业的可持续健康发展和粮食安全大局。在对我国肉类消费总体情况进行了详细分析的基础上,归纳了城镇化对于居民肉类消费的收入效应、市场效应、消费示范和消费创造效应,并采用向量自回归(VAR)模型考察了城镇化对居民肉类消费的动态影响。模型的估计结果表明,城镇化是居民肉类消费增长的格兰杰原因,两者存在长期均衡关系。进一步的脉冲响应函数和方差分解结果表明,城镇化对居民肉类消费增长有着稳定的正向刺激作用,且这一正向作用存在着滞后效应。由于我国城镇化在90年代中期存在着显著的区间转化特征,因此引入平滑转换回归模型(STR)对城镇化和城乡肉类消费差距的动态影响进行研究。结果表明,城镇化与居民人均肉类消费差距之间存在着均衡的非线性关系,在肉类消费差距变动较快的阶段,城镇化对于减小差距的作用较为明显,而在当下的肉类消费差距固化的情况下,城镇化对于城乡居民肉类消费差距的影响较弱。在上述分析的基础上,给出了与新型城镇化战略相配套的肉类产业政策框架,主要从生产匹配布局、市场流通管理和消费需求管理方面就调整和优化畜牧产业生产结构、加快肉类产品标准化建设,加强肉类产品市场流通体系建设、强化质量安全监管和引导居民健康消费观念方面提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up , the consumption level and consumption structure of meat consumption have changed greatly with the acceleration of the urbanization process . The consumption of meat in urban and rural areas is obviously improved , the consumption of meat consumption is obviously optimized , the consumption of meat consumption is more obvious , and the quality safety problem is frequent . At the same time , the urbanization will bring about a new round of impact on the consumption of meat consumption and the gap between urban and rural residents . Based on a detailed analysis of the overall situation of meat consumption in China , the effects of urbanization on the income effect , market effect , consumption model and consumption creation effect of the residents ' meat consumption are summarized . This paper studies the dynamic influence of urbanization and the consumption gap between urban and rural meat . The result shows that there is a balanced nonlinear relation between urbanization and the consumption gap of meat consumption per person . In the stage of rapid change of meat consumption gap , the urbanization is more obvious to reduce the gap . In the present situation of curing the gap of meat consumption , the urbanization has less influence on the meat consumption gap of urban and rural residents . On the basis of the above analysis , the paper gives a framework of meat industry policy which is matched with the new urbanization strategy , mainly from the aspects of production matching layout , market circulation management and consumption demand management , to adjust and optimize the production structure of livestock industry , accelerate the construction of meat product standardization , strengthen the construction of meat product market circulation system , strengthen the quality safety supervision and guide the residents ' healthy consumption concept .

【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.21;F326.3;F126.1

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