经济增长对税收增长影响的通径分析和实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 23:33

本文关键词：经济增长对税收增长影响的通径分析和实证研究　出处：《江西财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：税收收入增长一直是财政领域研究的热门话题,税收是政府收入的主要来源,在经济活动中扮演着重要角色。近年来作为经济热点话题的房价和地方政府债务问题,都涉及政府收入与支出,税收因素在其中也扮演着关键角色。而本文研究的主要问题是经济增长对税收收入的影响。从直观上来看,经济增长与税收增长应该表现为某种协同性。但事实并非如此,从1988年到2012年这25年的统计数据可以看出,我国税收收入增长率与经济增长率以1997年为分界点,在1997年之前,税收收入的增长率一直小于GDP的增长率。在1997年之后(2009年除外),我国税收收入的增长率都超过了GDP的增长率。这种超常增长在2012年的时候突然变小,使税收收入增长率和经济增长率基本持平。针对这一现象,本文试图在原有研究的基础上,运用新的研究方法进行阐述。在本文写作之前,本人整理阅读了大量的文献资料,发现学界对这一问题进行了大量的研究,不但讨论了经济对税收的影响,还对税收对经济的反作用进行了充分的研究。在影响税收收入方面,涵盖了经济因素、征管因素、政府行为等诸多方面。本文在参考众多的研究成果之后,先从理论方面入手,阐述了经济增长与税收增长的基本关系。然后选取了从1988年到2012年这25年间的统计数据,对我国税收收入和经济增长的现状予以详细介绍。接着,本文从经济规模增长和产业结构调整的角度分析了经济增长对税收收入的影响。为更细致地研究经济规模增长对税收收入的影响,本文将经济规模增长分为固定资产投资、最终消费、出口,分别进行回归分析。并且,本文采用了通径分析的方法,区分变量的直接影响和间接影响。通径分析的研究表明,在直接影响方面,消费的影响最为显著。而出口主要通过影响投资、消费而间接地影响税收收入。由于出口退税等税收优惠政策,出口对税收的直接影响并不显著,但出口对经济具有很强的拉动效应,因此出口对税收收入的间接影响相对于其他经济模块最为显著。投资对税收增长的影响则在直接影响和间接影响两方面都表现适中。从税收增长和经济增长的回归方程可以看出,消费增长对税收收入的增长具有最大的影响。消费的增长量每增加1%,税收收入的增长量将增加0.31%；而投资的增长量每增加1%,税收收入的增长量只增加0.11%。在分析产业结构调整对税收收入的影响时,本文将被解释变量税收收入细分为流转税收入和所得税收入,分别研究其对产业结构调整的弹性系数,得出所得税对产业结构调整的敏感性高于间接税,具体为：产业结构变动率每上升1%,税收总收入将上升4.19%,其中流转税增加3.87%,所得税增加4.98%。在所有以上的计量分析中,都采用了逐步回归的方法,以剔除多重共线性的影响,并进行了Johansan检验,以判断数据的平稳性,也进行了协整检验,以判断变量之间是否存在长期的均衡关系。最后,通过以上的研究分析,对我国的经济发展提出了若干建议。
[Abstract]:The tax revenue growth is a hot research topic in the field of finance, tax is a major source of government revenue, plays an important role in the economic activities. In recent years, as housing prices and local government debt economic hot topic issue involves government revenue and expenditure, tax factors play a key role in the main problem in this paper. Is the study of the impact of economic growth on tax revenues. From the visual point of view, the economic growth and tax revenue growth should behave as a cooperative. But that is not the case, from the 1988 statistics the 25 years to 2012 according to that rate and economic growth rate in 1997 as the demarcation point of growth of China's tax revenue in the before 1997, the tax revenue growth rate has been lower than the growth rate of GDP. After 1997 (except 2009), China's tax revenue growth rate has exceeded the growth rate of GDP. This extraordinary The growth suddenly became smaller in 2012, which made the tax revenue growth rate and the economic growth rate basically flat. In view of this phenomenon, this article attempts to elaborate on the basis of the original research with the new research methods.
In writing this article before I finish reading a lot of literature, found that scholars have done a lot of research on this issue not only discussed the economic impact of the tax, but also on the reverse effect of tax policy on the economy are studied. The effects of tax revenue, including economic factors, management factors. Government behavior and other aspects. Based on the research results of many reference, first from the theoretical aspects, expounds the basic relationship between economic growth and tax growth. Then based on statistical data from 1988 to 2012 this 25 years, give the detailed introduction to the current situation of tax revenue and economic growth in our country. Then, this article from the the scale of economic growth and industrial structure adjustment point of view of the impact of economic growth on tax revenues. For more detailed study of the scale of economic growth effect on tax revenue, the economic scale The increase of investment in fixed assets, final consumption, exports, respectively. And regression analysis, this paper uses the method of path analysis, direct effect and indirect effect between variables. The path analysis showed that the direct effect on consumption, the most significant factor. The investment and exports mainly through the influence of consumption the indirect effects on tax revenue. Due to the preferential tax policies of export tax rebates, direct effect on the export tax is not significant, but the export has a strong pulling effect on the economy, so the export of indirect effects on tax revenues relative to other economic module is the most significant. The investment effect on tax growth in two aspects of direct impact and the indirect influence are moderate. From the regression equation of tax growth and economic growth shows that consumption growth will have the greatest effect on the tax revenue growth. Growth in consumption per An increase of 1%, revenue growth will increase 0.31%; investment growth increased 1%, revenue growth increased only 0.11%. in the analysis of industrial structure adjustment on the impact of tax revenue, the tax revenue will be divided into variable transfer of tax revenue and tax revenues, respectively study the elastic coefficient of the adjustment of industrial structure, the sensitivity of the income tax on the adjustment of industrial structure is higher than that of indirect taxes, in particular: every 1% increase rate of industrial structure change, the total tax revenue will rise 4.19%, the turnover tax increase of 3.87%, the income tax increases in all the above quantitative analysis 4.98%., using stepwise regression method, the influence of to eliminate multicollinearity, and Johansan test to determine stability data, also the cointegration test, to determine whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables. Finally, through On the basis of the research and analysis, some suggestions are put forward for the economic development of our country.

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.42;F124

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