我国能源消费与经济增长、产业结构关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 15:37

本文关键词：我国能源消费与经济增长、产业结构关系研究　出处：《云南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在当今社会，能源是一个国家经济发展的基础。能源消费是否合理关系到国民经济增长的速度和质量，同时也对生态环境和人民生活水平产生影响。如今，在经济迅猛发展的同时，能源问题日益凸显，，如何降低能耗，提高能源利用效率成为研究的重点。而能源与经济发展之间有着不可分割的密切关系，同时产业结构的不断调整变动也影响着能源消费及其消费结构。故本文在已有理论基础之上，通过理论和实证分析，深入探讨我国能源消费与经济增长、产业结构之间的关系，从而为我国实现节能减排，充分利用能源提出合理的政策和建议。全文共包括以下五大章节。第一章主要介绍选题背景及研究意义，分析能源消费与经济增长、产业结构关系的国内外研究现状。通过梳理国内外相关文献，了解该领域的研究进展及趋势，从而为研究能源消费与经济增长、产业结构的关系提供思路。第二章主要是对能源消费与经济增长、产业结构关系进行理论分析。在对能源消费进行理论分析的基础上，对它们之间关系的理论进行分析，从而为本文研究提供理论支持。第三章主要是对1978-2012年我国能源消费与经济增长、产业结构的现状进行描述性统计分析。结果表明：能源消费和经济增长都呈现出上升趋势；能源消费弹性系数降到1以下，能源利用效率较高，能源消费强度也在不断下降；改革开放以来我国能源消费结构呈现出不同的演变趋势，总的来看能源消费结构趋于合理，但煤炭依旧是主要的消费能源；产业结构有了明显变化，第一产业比重在逐渐下降，第三产业比重不断增加，但第二产业的比重仍然过高，经济的增长主要是依靠能源消费的增加。第四章主要是通过建立计量模型对我国能源消费、经济增长、产业结构的关系进行实证分析。首先，建立包括经济增长、能源消费、资本投入和劳动力在内的多变量生产函数模型。结果显示：它们之间存在协整关系，资本投入对经济增长的影响程度最大，能源消费次之；煤炭、石油和可再生能源消费和经济增长有着长期稳定的关系，而天然气与经济增长之间并没有协整关系。其次，研究了能源消费与产业结构的关系，并考察了不同时期下产业结构变动对能源消费的影响。发现第二产业的能源消费弹性最大，即对能源的需求最大，第三产业产值的增加会减弱对能源消费的需求；同时通过因素分解方法对产业结构变动对能源强度的影响进行分析，得出我国能源消费强度的下降主要来自于各产业能源利用效率的提高。最后基于VAR模型，利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析对能源消费、经济增长、产业结构变动三者之间的动态关系进行研究。结果显示：经济增长对能源消费、产业结构变动存在正向的长期影响，能源消费也对经济增长、产业结构变动具有正向的长期影响，而产业结构变动在长期来看会减弱对能源消费需求，而有利于经济的增长。最后在上述研究的基础上，得出相关结论并提出政策建议：加快转变经济增长方式，积极调整优化产业结构；改善能源消费结构，提高能源利用效率；完善政策机制，提高节能意识。
[Abstract]:In today's society, energy is the foundation of a country's economic development. Energy consumption is related to the speed and quality of economic growth, but also the impact on the ecological environment and the level of people's life. Nowadays, with the rapid development of economy at the same time, the energy issue has become increasingly prominent, how to reduce energy consumption, improve energy efficiency become the focus of the study. And between energy and economic development have a close relationship, and constantly adjust the industrial structure change also affects the energy consumption and consumption structure. Based on the existing theory, through theoretical and empirical analysis, in-depth study of China's energy consumption and economic growth, the relationship between the industrial structure thus, for the realization of China's energy saving and emission reduction, and make full use of energy policy and put forward reasonable suggestions. The thesis consists of the following five chapters.
The first chapter mainly introduces the background and significance of the research, analysis of energy consumption and economic growth, the relationship between industrial structure research status at home and abroad. Through summarizing the relevant literature, understand the research progress and trends in the field, so as to study the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, industrial structure to provide ideas.
The second chapter mainly analyzes the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth and industrial structure. Based on the theoretical analysis of energy consumption, it analyzes the theory of their relationship, so as to provide theoretical support for this research.
The third chapter is mainly on the 1978-2012 of China's energy consumption and economic growth, the descriptive statistical analysis of the status of the industrial structure. The results show that the energy consumption and economic growth are showing a rising trend; energy consumption elasticity coefficient below 1, higher energy efficiency, energy consumption intensity has been declining since the reform and opening up; China's energy consumption structure shows different trends in the evolution of overall energy consumption structure tends to be reasonable, but the coal is still the main energy consumption; the industrial structure has been changed, a gradual decline in the proportion of the first industry, the third industry proportion is increasing, but the proportion of the second industry is still too high, economic growth mainly depends on the increase of energy consumption.
The fourth chapter is mainly through the establishment of measurement model of China's energy consumption, economic growth, empirical analysis of the relationship between the industrial structure. Firstly, including the establishment of economic growth, energy consumption, multi variable production function model, capital and labor. The results show that there is cointegration relationship between them, the greatest impact on the degree of economic capital investment the growth of energy consumption, time; coal, oil and renewable energy consumption and economic growth has a long-term stable relationship, and there is no cointegration relationship between natural gas and economic growth. Secondly, study the relationship between energy consumption and industrial structure, and the effects of industrial structure change under different impact on energy consumption second. Industrial energy consumption elasticity is the biggest, the maximum demand for energy, increase the output of the third industry will weaken the energy consumption demand; at the same time through Prime decomposition method to analyze the impact of industrial structure on energy intensity, the decrease of energy consumption intensity in China mainly from the industrial energy efficiency. Finally, based on the VAR model, using pulse decomposition analysis of energy consumption and economic growth response function and the variance of the change of industrial structure of the dynamic relationship between the three study. The results showed that economic growth of energy consumption, there is a long-term positive effect on the change of industrial structure, energy consumption on economic growth, has a long-term positive effect on the change of industrial structure, and industrial structure change in the long term will weaken consumer demand for energy, which is conducive to economic growth.
Finally, based on the above research, we draw relevant conclusions and put forward policy recommendations: accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic growth, actively adjust and optimize the industrial structure, improve the energy consumption structure, improve the efficiency of energy utilization, improve the policy mechanism and raise the awareness of energy saving.

【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F426.2;F121.3

【参考文献】