兰州市碳排放现状及低碳城市发展研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 08:11

本文关键词：兰州市碳排放现状及低碳城市发展研究　出处：《甘肃农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在全球气候变暖的时代大背景下，基于能源、经济、甚至价值观变革的低碳经济发展模式给世界各国带来新的机遇与挑战。作为一个国家经济发展与科技创新的支撑点，城市是碳排放的主要源头，发展低碳城市已成为新时期解决资源短缺和气候问题必然选择，同时也是实现经济、社会、环境、资源和谐共进的根本途径。据此，本文系统展开了西部生态脆弱城市——兰州低碳城市发展研究。兰州市作为带动甘肃省经济发展的核心区域，工业化的发展使得能源消耗量日益增加，而能源消耗又是城市最主要的碳源，在全球变暖的大背景下，低碳城市建设已成为兰州市实现资源、环境、经济协调统一发展的必然选择。所以该研究在查阅相关文献资料的基础上，以可持续发展、循坏经济、绿色经济等理论为指导，首先总结分析国内外低碳经济研究进展和低碳城市的理论研究与实践，界定了低碳经济与低碳城市的概念与内涵，然后根据兰州低碳城市目前发展的成效以及存在的问题，运用脱钩理论模型分析兰州市能源消耗与经济增长之间的脱钩关系。参照温室气体排放清单，从能源消耗、工业生产、固废排放以及城市园林绿地角度测算了兰州市重点领域碳源碳排放与碳汇碳储量，并运用LMDI模型对兰州市碳排放进行因素分解分析。进一步从系统论的角度出发，建立兰州市低碳城市评价指标体系，对兰州市低碳城市发展现状进行综合评价。最后通过分析兰州低碳城市建设中存在的优势与限制因素，提出兰州低碳城市建设的具体建议。理论与实证分析研究得出以下结论：兰州市目前在低碳城市的建设上初见成效，但还存在低碳城市建设体制机制不健全，技术研发支撑力不足、公众低碳意识不强等问题。兰州市能源消费总量从2001年的1155.23万吨增加到2012年的2396万吨，经济发展与能源消耗关系主要处于“相对脱钩”状态，呈现经济增长，能耗增加，但单位经济能耗减少的发展状态。从2001～2012年，兰州市碳排放总量从848.46万吨增加到1782.06万吨，人均碳排放从2.86吨/人增加到5.54吨/人，但碳排放强度从2.48吨/万元下降到1.14吨/万元，虽然总量在增加，，但能源利用效率提升效果显著。通过因素分解发现，技术水平要素和能源强度要素对兰州市碳排放起到抑制作用，而经济增长要素和产业结构要素对兰州市碳排放起到促进作用。从2008～2012年，兰州低碳城市发展类型处于高碳阶段，即将步入中高碳阶段，低碳城市建设已产生一定的成效。兰州市在低碳城市建设上具有一定的区位、科研、政策及产业转型优势，但还是很大程度上受到能源结构，技术水平、金融支持以及体制机制方面的限制,亟需在进一步的低碳城市建设中解决并改善。根据研究结果，论文提出依据科技支撑与资金支持，通过产业结构调整与经济增长方式转变等措施，发展低碳交通、建筑、消费，并通过立法保障低碳城市建设的对策建议。
[Abstract]:In the times of global warming background, based on energy, economic development mode, and even change the values of the low carbon economy brings new opportunities and challenges to all countries in the world. As the supporting point of a country's economic development and technological innovation, the city is the main source of carbon emissions, the development of low-carbon city has become a shortage of resources to solve the problem of the new era of climate and the inevitable choice, but also the realization of economic, social, environmental, resources and fundamental way to harmonious. Accordingly, this paper carried out the ecological fragile city in the western Lanzhou low carbon city development research.
Lanzhou city as the core of regional economic development of Gansu Province, the development of the industrialization makes the consumption of energy is increasing, and the energy consumption is the main source of carbon city, under the background of global warming, low carbon city construction has become the resources and environment of Lanzhou, the inevitable choice for economic coordinated development. So based on the relevant literature review, based on sustainable development, circular economy, green economy theory, first summarizes the analysis of theoretical research and practice of low carbon economy and low carbon city research at home and abroad, the definition and connotation of low carbon economy and low carbon city, then according to the current the development of Lanzhou low carbon city effect and problems by using decoupling theory model to analyze the decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economy growth in Lanzhou. According to the list of greenhouse gas emissions from energy. Consumption, industrial production, solid waste discharge and the green garden city view of Lanzhou city is calculated in key areas of carbon source carbon emissions and carbon sequestration of carbon storage, and the use of factor decomposition analysis LMDI model of carbon emissions in Lanzhou. Further from the viewpoint of system theory, establish the evaluation index system of low carbon city in Lanzhou City, a comprehensive evaluation of the status quo low carbon city development in Lanzhou city. Finally, through the analysis of the advantages and limitations of existing Lanzhou low carbon city construction factors, put forward concrete suggestions of constructing low carbon city in Lanzhou.
Theoretical and empirical analysis the following conclusions: Lanzhou city currently has in the construction of low-carbon city effect, but also the existence of institutional mechanisms of low carbon city construction is not perfect, lack of technology support, the problem of low carbon public awareness is not strong. The city of Lanzhou's total energy consumption increased from 11 million 552 thousand and 300 tons in 2001 to 23 million 960 thousand in 2012 tons, relationship between economic development and energy consumption are mainly in the relative decoupling state, showing the economic growth, energy consumption increases, but the development of state economy and reduce energy consumption per unit. From 2001 to 2012, Lanzhou City carbon emissions from 8 million 484 thousand and 600 tons to 17 million 820 thousand and 600 tons, the per capita carbon emissions from 2.86 tons / person increased to 5.54 tons / person however, the intensity of carbon emissions from 2.48 tons / million fell to 1.14 tons / million, although the amount of increase in energy efficiency, but significantly enhance the effect. Through the factor decomposition, technological level and energy factors The intensity factors of inhibition of carbon emissions in Lanzhou city to play, and the elements of economic growth and industrial structure factors to promote the carbon emissions of Lanzhou city. From 2008 to 2012, Lanzhou low carbon city development types in high carbon phase, coming into high carbon, low carbon city construction has produced certain effect in Lanzhou. In the construction of low carbon city has a certain location, scientific research, policy and industrial restructuring, but largely because of the energy structure, technical level, financial support and institutional constraints, the urgent need for the construction of low carbon city and further solve and improve. According to the research results, this paper on the basis of scientific and technological support and financial support, through the adjustment of industrial structure and the transformation of economic growth mode and other measures, the development of low-carbon transportation, construction, consumption, and the countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of low carbon city legislative protection.

【学位授予单位】：甘肃农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27;F124.5

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