基于SD模型的吐鲁番市生态-生产-生活承载力分析

发布时间：2018-01-08 18:28

本文关键词：基于SD模型的吐鲁番市生态-生产-生活承载力分析　出处：《干旱区资源与环境》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文中在SD模型的基础上建立吐鲁番市生态-生产-生活承载力模型,模拟该地区在生态城市相关指标下的生态、资源环境和经济三个系统的发展趋势,将其可持续指标体系引入承载力的评价,在多种参数的调控下,设计四种发展模式,选出最优。结果表明:将2010-2030年吐鲁番绿洲农业、工业增长率分别维持在11%、9%左右,乡村人口、城镇人口增长率分别控制在2.5%、1%,把耕地面积增长率和减少率分别控制在4%、2%,灌溉面积增长率控制在2.1%,地表水、地下水开发率分别降低为2.4%、3.8%,吐鲁番市2030年城市化率将达到50%,耕地面积达到70074hm~2,地表水减少到7.3013亿m~3,地下水资源量降到1.59亿m~3,水资源承载力、经济承载力、耕地承载力也处于相对平衡的状态。
[Abstract]:On the basis of SD model, a model of ecological, production-life carrying capacity of Turpan city is established, and the development trend of ecological, resource, environment and economic systems in this area is simulated under the relevant indexes of ecological city. The sustainable index system was introduced into the evaluation of bearing capacity, and four development models were designed under the control of various parameters. The results showed that the agriculture of Turpan oasis from 2010 to 2030 would be selected. The industrial growth rate was maintained at about 11% or 9% respectively. The growth rate of the rural population and the urban population was controlled at 2.5% and 1% respectively, and the growth rate and the reduction rate of the cultivated land area were respectively controlled at 4% or 2%. The growth rate of irrigated area is controlled at 2.1, the rate of exploitation of surface water and groundwater is reduced to 2.4% and 3.8% respectively. In 2030, the urbanization rate of Turpan City will reach 50%. The cultivated land area reaches 70074 hmm2, the surface water decreases to 730.13 million mm3, and the groundwater resources decrease to 159 million mm3. The carrying capacity of water resources and the economic carrying capacity are also discussed. Cultivated land bearing capacity is also in a relatively balanced state.
【作者单位】：新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室;新疆大学资源与环境科学学院;新疆大学旅游学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41271168)资助
【分类号】：F127
【正文快照】： 干旱地区"三生"承载力是指干旱地区资源与生态环境的供容能力、经济活动能力和满足一定生活水平人口数量的社会发展能力的有机综合体,它由处于支持层的生态承载力和处于表现层的生产承载力和生活承载力3部分组成,简称干旱地区"三生"承载力[1]。吐鲁番市是干旱区人与自然耦合系

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