中国杠杆率的特征事实、成因及对策

发布时间：2018-01-10 03:05

本文关键词：中国杠杆率的特征事实、成因及对策　出处：《经济学家》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文通过对比44个样本国家的杠杆率和国内行业的杠杆率后发现,中国杠杆率具有如下特征,首先,近年来中国非金融部门总体杠杆率水平并不异常的高,但是上升速度加快。其次,非金融私人部门信贷缺口持续扩大。再次,微观杠杆率与宏观杠杆率的背离以及房地产部门杠杆率和工业企业部门杠杆率的背离。本文认为,中国杠杆率变动主要是工业企业部门被动去杠杆与房地产相关部门主动加杠杆相互叠加、整体资本回报率下降、部门间资本再配置和资本收入份额提高的结果。同时,具有软预算约束特征的地方融资平台信贷需求激增,也对宏观杠杆率上升起了很大推升作用。降杠杆需要宏观经济政策实行宽财政、紧信用、宽货币的组合;同时改进现有融资体制,优化企业融资结构;建立国有企业硬预算约束机制,提高其利率敏感性。
[Abstract]:By comparing the leverage ratio of 44 sample countries with that of domestic industry, this paper finds that China's leverage ratio has the following characteristics. Firstly, the overall leverage level of China's non-financial sector is not unusually high in recent years. Second, the credit gap in the non-financial private sector continues to widen. The deviation between micro leverage ratio and macro leverage ratio and between real estate sector leverage ratio and industrial enterprise sector leverage ratio. China's leverage ratio changes are mainly the industrial sector passive deleveraging and real estate sector active plus leverage superimposed on each other, the overall return on capital fell. Intersectoral capital reallocation and increased share of capital income. At the same time, the credit demand of local financing platforms with soft budget constraints has increased sharply. It also plays a very important role in pushing up the macro-leverage ratio. Reducing the leverage requires the combination of broad finance, tight credit and broad currency. At the same time, improve the existing financing system, optimize the financing structure of enterprises; Establish state-owned enterprise hard budget restraint mechanism, raise its interest rate sensitivity.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国城市规模、空间聚集与管理模式研究”(15AJL013)
【分类号】：F124
【正文快照】： 本文通过对比44个样本国家的杠杆率和国内行业的杠杆率后发现,中国杠杆率具有如下特征,首先,近年来中国非金融部门总体杠杆率水平并不异常的高,但是上升速度加快。其次,非金融私人部门信贷缺口持续扩大。再次,微观杠杆率与宏观杠杆率的背离以及房地产部门杠杆率和工业企业部门

【相似文献】