人口老龄化背景下退休冲击对居民家庭消费的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 04:22

本文关键词：人口老龄化背景下退休冲击对居民家庭消费的影响研究　出处：《上海社会科学院》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国自2000年以来就面临着人口老龄化这一不可逆转的老年人口逐步增加的趋势,上世纪五十年代"婴儿潮"出生的人口在2010年前后依次进入退休年龄,第二波的退休潮带动了老年人口数量的进一步增加,形成了老年人口增长的高峰。老龄社会中退休人员的增加微观上影响的是居民个体及所在家庭的收入、消费、老年心理等,宏观层面影响的是我国劳动力供给、社会整体消费、产业结构等。而我国现有的强制退休制度在老龄化加速变化的时代会使得退休这一群体人数越来越多,现实的经济环境中一大问题在于经济新常态时期,消费需求不足,这部分群体的退休决策通过对居民消费的动态冲击影响着社会经济的发展与持久稳定。基于此,本文依托中国家庭动态跟踪调查数据,对面板数据进行混合回归的方法重点分析了退休对居民家庭消费水平和消费结构的影响,研究"退休消费困境"这一现象是否真实的存在在现实消费生活中。并选择上海作为典型案例城市,根据调查问卷与质性访谈,深入了解上海市退休居民的生活状况,梳理与诠释"退休"与老年消费行为的现实相关性,对退休老人生活史的梳理再现当今社会退休群体的经济生活。由于我国同美国、日本两国一样面临人口老龄化背景下"婴儿潮"一代的退休高峰对社会经济发展的冲击与挑战,我们再把研究的视角从国内延伸向国外,分析美、日两国应对居民退休后消费变动的举措以及对我国的启示与借鉴。有了理论与实践的经验与证明后,本文对于如何有效应对人口老龄化加速和经济转型背景下退休给居民所在家庭消费水平带来的负性影响以及家庭消费结构的变化,为扩大消费需求,增强家庭居民的消费信心提出相应的思考与建议。本文的主要发现与结论如下:第一,退休后居民的主要收入来源为家庭其他成员供养、劳动收入、离退休金养老金三大部分,但是,老年人的主要生活来源存在着明显的性别和城市差异。居民退休后消费呈现出以下特征:首先,消费动机较为理性,消费习惯固化;其次,对商品或商家提高的服务价格敏感度较高;再次,更加追求实际,特别看重产品的实用功能;最后,消费节俭,边际消费倾向较低,预防性储蓄较高。第二,影响退休后居民所在家庭消费的因素主要有居民家庭的消费习惯和消费实力、政府相关消费和税收政策、居民享有的社会保障水平、消费者权益维护程度、经济发展程度等宏观因素以及老年消费的供给等。退休对居民消费的影响机制主要体现在直接影响和间接影响两方面。直接影响在于消费结构、消费动机、消费习惯、利他性消费;间接影响在于通过间接传导机制如收入分配、经济增长、劳动生产率、产业结构、社会保障制度来影响退休后的消费。第三,退休强制制度的冲击直接导致居民消费水平相比退休前下降了 15.7%。在消费结构的影响方面,与工作相关的衣着、邮政通讯交通类支出下降比例分别为25.6%、12.2%,退休对家庭设备用品及服务支出下降了 23.3%,居住类消费支出、医疗保健支出方面分别增加了 31.8%和23.5%,对教育文娱支出的影响并不显著。同时,上海作为我国老龄化程度较高的城市,退休冲击对居民消费带来负性影响,居民退休后减少了原有家庭消费总支出的23.20%,在10%的置信水平上显著。消费结构层面主要体现衣着类下降了 39.3%,家庭设备用品及服务支出下降了 48.4%。第四,居民退休后高收入区间人数占比减少,而低收入区间相比退休前的比例相应增加;和退休前相比,退休后居民每月伙食费用占平均月支出总费用比重并未发生较大变化,相比退休前,医疗类消费占平均月总支出费用比重在30-40%区间的人数增加了 80%;消费比重在40%-50%区间人数增加了 56%;退休后居民选择"公共交通"退休居民比例较退休前增长27%;他们开始更加关注自身人际交往,不断提高精神消费在总消费中的比例。另外,通过对上海市已退休居民的四个典型个案研究,得出:消费行为反哺退休后的日常生活,精神消费是拓展个体兴趣的需要,社会交往是老年消费的动力。并且,老年消费嵌入代际关系。第五,我国在延迟退休年龄制度、养老保险覆盖的人群、支付与社保资金融资方式以及发展老年产业特别是老年市场细分、老年产品科技创新、老年产业发展政策体系、产学研结合、老年产业协会、鼓励老年劳动力再就业等方面有许多可向美国、日本学习借鉴的地方,不仅如此,更要在经济发展模式、经济结构转型、增加经济活力方面深入思考,如注重实体经济的发展,加快经济发展方式的转变,提高企业的自主性与创新能力,进一步扩大内需。基于以上结论,我们提出了四点政策建议,分别为:有效转变家庭居民消费观念,完善养老医疗等社会保障体系;优化供给,改进老年消费支出构成;完善养老服务,科学开拓老年消费市场或发展老年产业;贯彻执行"健康老龄化",改变退休消费负效应。
[Abstract]:Since 2000 our country is facing the aging population this irreversible elderly population gradually increasing trend, in 50s the "baby boomer" population in 2010 and entered the retirement age, the second wave of retirements led to the number of elderly population is further increased, the formation of the elderly population growth peak. The increase in the retirement of an aging society is the micro impact on individual and family income, consumption, elderly psychology, the macro level is on the impact of labor supply in China, the whole society consumption, industrial structure and so on. But the existing mandatory retirement accelerated aging in times of change will make the retirement a group of people more and more, a big problem in the realistic economic environment is the economic new normal period, consumption demand is insufficient, this part of the group of residents consumption retirement decisions by animals State the impact of the social and economic development and lasting stability. Based on this, this paper relies on the dynamic China household tracking survey data, focusing on methods for panel data regression analysis of the mixed effect of retirement on household consumption level and consumption structure, the phenomenon of "retirement consumption dilemma" is the true existence of life in reality consumer. And select Shanghai city as a typical case, according to the survey questionnaire and qualitative interviews, in-depth understanding of retired Shanghai city residents living conditions, combing and interpretation of "retirement" and older consumer behavior in reality correlation on the life history of the retired elderly society retirement group combing reproduction because our country with economic life. The United States, Japan faces under the background of population aging baby boomers retirement peak on the social and economic development impact and challenge, we put the research perspective From domestic to foreign countries, analysis of beauty, Japan to residents after retirement consumption change initiatives and the enlightenment and reference. The experience and proof of theory and practice, this article on how to have effect on the aging of the population and economy under the background of transformation to change the negative influence of retired residents of their household consumption the level and family consumption structure, to expand consumer demand, and put forward some thoughts and suggestions corresponding to the enhancement of family consumer confidence. The main findings and conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the main source of income of residents after retirement for other members of the family support, labor income, pension from three parts, however, a significant difference the sex and the city are main source of life of the elderly residents. After retirement consumption shows the following characteristics: first, a more rational consumption motivation, consumption habits of the curing; The service time, a higher price sensitivity of commodity or business; thirdly, the pursuit of more practical value, especially the practical function of the product; finally, frugal consumption, marginal propensity to consume is low, precautionary savings is high. Second, the influence factors of household consumption after retirement, where the residents are mainly household consumption habits and strength the government, related spending and tax policy, the social security level of residents, maintaining the interests of consumers, the degree of economic development and macroeconomic factors such as the supply of retired elderly consumer. On the consumption impact mechanism is mainly reflected in the direct and indirect influence two aspects. In the consumption structure, directly affect the consumer motivation, consumption habits. Altruistic consumer; is through indirect conduction mechanisms such as income distribution, economic growth, labor productivity, industrial structure indirectly, the social security system to affect retirement After the retirement consumption. Third, the impact of mandatory system directly leads to the consumption level of residents in retirement before falling to 15.7%. in the effect of the consumption structure, work clothes, postal communication transportation expenses decreased respectively 25.6%, 12.2%, down 23.3% on the retirement of household appliances and services spending, residential consumption expenditure, health care spending increased by 31.8% and 23.5%, have no significant effect on education spending on entertainment. At the same time, as China's Shanghai city high degree of aging, retirement impact of negative influence on household consumption, residents retirement decrease the total household consumption expenditures of 23.20%, significant at the 10% confidence level on the level of consumption structure. Mainly clothing fell 39.3%, household appliances and services spending fell fourth 48.4%., residents of retirement income interval number proportion high Reduce, and lower income compared to pre retirement interval increased; compared with before retirement, retired residents monthly food expenses accounted for the proportion of the total cost of the average monthly expenditure has not changed greatly, compared to before retirement, medical consumption accounted for the average monthly expenditure proportion of a 80% increase in the number of 30-40% interval; the proportion of consumption increase 56% in the range of 40%-50% number; retired residents choose to "public transport" retired residents before retirement proportion compared with growth of 27%; they began to pay more attention to the interpersonal communication, and constantly improve the proportion of spiritual consumption in total consumption. In addition, through research, four typical cases of Shanghai city has retired residents that the consumer behavior in daily life feeding after retirement, spiritual consumption is to expand the individual interest, social intercourse is power consumption. And the elderly, the elderly consumer embedded intergenerational relationship in our country. Fifth, delay The retirement age system, pension insurance coverage of the crowd, and the payment of social security funds financing and the development of old industry especially the elderly elderly product market segmentation, technological innovation, combination system, development policy of older industries, the elderly Industry Association, to encourage the elderly labor force and employment have a lot to learn from Japan to the United States, where not only that, but in the mode of economic development, economic restructuring, increase the economic vitality of deep thinking, such as focusing on the development of the real economy, accelerate the transformation of economic development mode, improve the autonomy and innovation ability of the enterprise, to further expand domestic demand. Based on the above conclusions, we put forward four suggestions, respectively: the transformation of family consumption concept of residents, improve pension and medical social security system; optimization of supply, improve the structure of consumption; improve the pension service, open science To expand the consumption market for the elderly or to develop the old industry; to implement the "healthy aging" and to change the negative effect of retirement consumption.

【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F126.1

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