人民币国际化进程中汇率变动对经济增长的长短期影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 13:41

本文关键词：人民币国际化进程中汇率变动对经济增长的长短期影响研究　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国人民币国际化进程的加快,人民币国际化日益成为政府和大众关注的焦点。人民币在一定范围内已经发挥着国际货币的作用,国际地位不断上升。随着人民币国际化的推进,人民币汇率的波动对我国经济各个方面都将产生越来越重要的影响。因此,深入研究人民币国际化进程中汇率变动对经济增长的作用机制和路径效果,不仅有助于加深理解汇率与中国宏观经济增长的长短期关系,也对有效防范汇率风险、保证人民币币值稳定、避免国际收支的过度失衡有重要作用,有助于从宏观层面构建一个促进人民币国际化稳定发展的良性循环机制。本文研究内容主要包括以下几个方面:首先,基于人民币国际化加入SDR迈出人民币国际化进程实质性步伐的时代背景下,梳理了国内外学者研究现状,对我国人民币国际化进程以及人民币国际化进程中的汇率变动特征进行分析;其次,理论分析汇率变动对我国宏观经济的影响机制,本文选择实际GDP作为宏观经济的研究指标,理论分析汇率对外商直接投资、进出口贸易的影响,进而推出汇率变动通过外商直接投资、进出口对经济增长的长短期影响机制;再次,在人民币国际化进程中汇率变动的长短期趋势分析的基础上,通过向量自回归模型研究汇率变动、外商直接投资、进出口以及经济增长之间的互动关系,并分析汇率变动对经济增长的长期效应和短期效应。最后,根据实证研究结论以及以往相关研究,结合人民币国际化这一环境背景,为我国的汇率改革提出相应政策。通过研究表明:(1)人民币国际化过程中汇率的变动具有长期上升的趋势性特征。短期内人民币汇率波动性较强,呈现上升和下降的交替变化,目前人民币表现出了一定程度的贬值态势;(2)人民币国际化进程中,汇率上升与进出口贸易具有显著的负相关关系,但是人民币升值对进口的影响时间要短于出口,因此长期看,人民币升值可能会造成净出口的下降。人民币汇率变动对FDI的影响在短期和长期具有阻碍作用,但影响不显著;(3)总体上讲,人民币汇率上升在短期可能会对经济增长具有一定的正向冲击作用,但作用并不显著,长期看会对经济增长带来显著的负向作用。本文认为在人民币国际化进程中,在防范人民币汇兑危机的基础上,要更加重视因国际需求增加带来的人民币汇率持续上升的问题,并制定稳定汇率、保持经济增长持续性相关措施。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of RMB internationalization in China, RMB internationalization has increasingly become the focus of attention of the government and the public. The RMB has played an important role in the international currency in a certain range. With the development of RMB internationalization, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will have more and more important influence on all aspects of our economy. Further study on the mechanism and path effect of exchange rate change on economic growth in the process of RMB internationalization is not only helpful to understand the long-term and short-term relationship between the exchange rate and China's macroeconomic growth. It also plays an important role in effectively preventing exchange rate risk, ensuring the stability of RMB currency and avoiding excessive imbalance of international payments. It is helpful to construct a virtuous circle mechanism to promote the RMB internationalization and stable development from the macro level. The research content of this paper mainly includes the following aspects: first of all. Based on the background of RMB internationalization entering SDR, this paper combs the current research situation of scholars at home and abroad under the background of the substantial step of RMB internationalization process. This paper analyzes the process of RMB internationalization in China and the characteristics of exchange rate change in the process of RMB internationalization. Secondly, theoretical analysis of the exchange rate changes on the macroeconomic impact mechanism, the actual GDP as the macroeconomic research indicators, theoretical analysis of the impact of foreign direct investment, import and export trade. Furthermore, the mechanism of long-term and short-term influence of foreign direct investment, import and export on economic growth is put forward. Thirdly, on the basis of long-term and short-term trend analysis of RMB exchange rate change in the process of RMB internationalization, this paper studies the interaction among exchange rate change, foreign direct investment, import and export and economic growth through vector autoregressive model. And analyze the long-term and short-term effects of exchange rate changes on economic growth. Finally, according to empirical research conclusions and previous relevant studies, combined with the background of RMB internationalization. This paper puts forward the corresponding policy for the exchange rate reform of our country. The research shows that the change of exchange rate in the process of RMB internationalization has a trend characteristic of long-term rise, and the volatility of RMB exchange rate is strong in the short term. Taking on the alternately change of rising and decreasing, the RMB is devaluing to a certain extent; In the process of RMB internationalization, the exchange rate rise has a significant negative correlation with import and export trade, but the impact of RMB appreciation on imports is shorter than that on exports, so in the long run. RMB appreciation may result in a decline in net exports. The impact of RMB exchange rate changes on FDI is hindered in the short and long term, but the impact is not significant. Generally speaking, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate may have a positive impact on economic growth in the short term, but the effect is not significant. In the long run, it will bring a significant negative effect on economic growth. This paper argues that in the process of RMB internationalization, it is based on the prevention of RMB exchange crisis. It is necessary to pay more attention to the issue of the RMB exchange rate rising as a result of increased international demand, and formulate measures to stabilize the exchange rate and maintain the sustainability of economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F124.1

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