中国经济增长的长期机制与短期机制结合研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 07:06

本文关键词：中国经济增长的长期机制与短期机制结合研究　出处：《西北大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：长期经济增长和短期经济波动是宏观经济学最重要的研究主题,是一个问题的两个方面,但由于二者分析方法的差异,现有文献大多将二者割裂开来分别研究。中国经济进入新常态以来,如何判断未来经济增长的趋势,又如何理解当前经济增速的下滑,意义重大。上述理论和现实问题都需要将经济长期增长和短期增长结合起来研究。本文正是在这样的背景下,基于已有文献,分析长期增长、短期增长以及二者之间的关系,结合长期与短期两种视角研究中国经济增长的过去、现在和未来,尝试搭建中国经济长期增长和短期增长的统一分析框架,探索中国经济增长长期机制和短期机制的结合。首先,从供给角度阐述经济长期增长机制,从需求角度阐述短期经济增长的机制,并对长期与短期关系理论进行梳理。其次,对改革开放以来我国长期经济增长趋势和短期经济增长状况分别进行实证研究,包括利用生产函数法估算潜在增长率,采用“谷一谷”方法将改革开放至今分为五个时间阶段,分析每个周期内经济波动特征、原因以及与长期增长趋势的关系。再次,对现阶段经济增长中出现的长期增长动力不足、短期增长率下降等问题给出了理论解释,同时对未来经济增长空间进行了分析与展望。最后,根据前述分析结果,提出了提升中国经济长期增长能力的路径和实现短期平稳增长以及增强长期增长和短期增长协调性的政策建议。本文的研究结果表明:第一,近年来我国实际经济增长率下降的根本原因在于潜在增长率的下降;第二,劳动、资本、技术等供给因素的变化,造成了潜在增长率的下降;第三,实际经济增长率下降的幅度超过了潜在增长率,从短期来看,经济仍有增长的空间,但受潜在增长率的限制,增长空间有限;第四,对于宏观调控政策的取向,由于需求政策作用空间有限,应转向以供给政策为主,需求政策为辅的政策组合。
[Abstract]:Long-term economic growth and short-term economic fluctuation are the most important research topics of macroeconomics, which are two aspects of a problem, but due to the differences between the two analytical methods. Since the Chinese economy entered into the new normal, how to judge the future trend of economic growth, and how to understand the current economic growth rate decline. The above theoretical and practical issues need to combine the long-term economic growth and short-term growth. This paper is precisely in this context, based on the existing literature, analysis of long-term growth. This paper studies the past, present and future of China's economic growth from the long-term and short-term perspectives, and tries to build a unified analytical framework of long-term and short-term economic growth. To explore the combination of long-term and short-term mechanisms of economic growth in China. First of all, from the perspective of supply to explain the long-term economic growth mechanism, from the point of view of demand to explain the mechanism of short-term economic growth. And the long-term and short-term relationship theory is combed. Secondly, the long-term economic growth trend and short-term economic growth status since the reform and opening up in China are studied empirically. Including the use of production function method to estimate the potential growth rate, "Gu Gu Gu" method will be divided into five stages of reform and opening up to date, analysis of the characteristics of economic fluctuations in each cycle. The reason and the relationship with the long-term growth trend. Thirdly, this paper gives a theoretical explanation to the problems of the lack of long-term growth power and the decline of short-term growth rate in the current economic growth. At the same time, the future economic growth space is analyzed and forecasted. Finally, according to the above analysis results. This paper puts forward the path to enhance the long-term growth ability of Chinese economy and the policy recommendations to realize the short-term steady growth and enhance the coordination between long-term growth and short-term growth. The research results of this paper show that: first. In recent years, the fundamental reason for the decline of the real economic growth rate in China lies in the decline of the potential growth rate. Second, the change of supply factors, such as labor, capital, technology and so on, caused the decline of the potential growth rate; Third, the decline of real economic growth rate exceeds the potential growth rate. In the short term, there is still room for economic growth, but the growth space is limited by the potential growth rate. In 4th, for the orientation of macro-control policy, due to the limited space of demand policy, we should turn to the policy combination of supply policy and demand policy.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124

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