安徽省金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 05:27

本文关键词：安徽省金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究　出处：《安徽财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：金融发展能否影响经济增长是西方理论界一直以来探讨与研究的热点问题之一。随着国外学者与专家对经济学研究的不断深化,金融发展理论研究成果颇丰,其中包括金融发展与经济增长之间的作用机制、金融抑制、金融自由化、金融市场化等方面。国内学者对金融发展与经济增长关系的研究更多是在参考国外研究方案和研究方法的前提下针对我国经济金融发展的现状对经济发展与金融发展之间的关联性进行了研究。虽然学者们的研究角度各有不同,但是他们都是以客观的金融历史数据为研究根据的,有的学者甚至引入了比较法等先进的研究方法。随着社会经济的飞速发展,金融业的学者们也渐渐意识到了金融在资源配置中所起的作用。学者们已经达成一种共识,那就是金融发展对经济增长确实存在影响,但是关于金融发展如何影响经济发展以及影响程度的深浅学者们还难以给出定论。本文选择向量自回归(VAR)模型作为框架,选择对外开放、金融发展、固定资产投资、劳动投入和经济增长作为模型中的变量指标,使用的是年度数据(1989-2012),目的就是来考察安徽省金融发展在经济增长中的相对作用。结果表明,在短期,是实体经济部门对增加资本要素投入的需求,这势必会带动金融的发展；但是,在经济和金融的发展过程中,相关学者并未发现二者之间存在任何因果联系。从目前的现状来看,经济的增长并不会受到金融变化的任何影响,但是根据VAR方差分析结果显示,安徽省金融的VAR原数据层面充分证实了金融发展对经济增长起到了推波助澜作用,而且,金融因素是影响经济增长的四大因素中最重要的一个因素。也有学者表示,固定资产投资因素自第四期开始就会慢慢对经济增长产生强有力的影响,此时,金融因素不再是影响力最大的因素。相关研究证实：金融发展离不开良好的经济环境,也就是说,金融的发展必须建立在经济增长这个大前提之上。但是,关于二者的相互影响程度而言,明显是经济增长对金融发展的影响更为突出。这说明,在上世纪八十年代至新世纪期间,安徽省的金融发展速度为经济增长做出了杰出的贡献,这也是安徽省经济得以稳定增长的原因之一。可见,在我国未来的经济发展过程中,制定一个科学、合理的金融发展战略是十分有必要的。
[Abstract]:Can financial development affects economic growth is the western theory circle has been discussed and a hot topic of research. With foreign scholars and experts on the economics of the deepening of research, the theory of financial development is good, including the mechanism between financial development and economic growth, financial restraint, financial liberalization, financial market and so on. Study on the relationship between financial development and economic growth, domestic scholars more status quo of China's economic and financial development under the premise, in reference to foreign research design and research methods to study the economic development and financial development. Although the relationship between the angle of research scholars are different, but they are based on research the financial objective for historical data, some scholars even introduced advanced research methods of comparative law.
With the rapid development of social economy, finance scholars have gradually realized the financial plays a role in the allocation of resources. The scholars have reached a consensus that financial development does have an impact on economic growth, but on how the financial development affects economic development and influence the depth degree are also difficult to give scholars conclusion. This paper choose the vector autoregressive (VAR) model as a framework, choice of opening, financial development, fixed asset investment, labor input and economic growth as the variables in the model, using the annual data (1989-2012), the purpose is to examine the relative effects of Anhui Province financial development in economic growth. That is, in the short term, the real economy sector to increase capital input demand, which will promote the development of finance; however, in the process of development of economy and finance, phase There is no causal relationship between the related scholars have not found two. Judging from the current situation, any impact on economic growth and is not affected by financial changes, but according to the VAR variance analysis showed that the VAR level of the original data of Anhui province finance fully confirmed the role of financial development to economic growth, and financial factors. Is one of the most important aspects of four major factors affecting the economic growth. Some scholars said that the factors of investment in fixed assets will slowly start to have a powerful impact on economic growth, since the fourth stage at this time, the financial factor is not the most influential factors. Studies have shown that: financial development cannot do without a good economic environment. That is to say, financial development must be based on the premise of economic growth. However, the degree of interaction on the two, apparently on economic growth The influence of financial development is more prominent. This shows that in the last century, during the period of 80s to the new century, Anhui Province financial development speed has made an outstanding contribution to economic growth, one of the reasons to the steady growth of the economy in Anhui province. This is also visible in China's future economic development process, develop a scientific. Reasonable financial development strategy is very necessary.

【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F832.7

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