基于ESDA的浙江省县域经济空间关联性研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 05:10

本文关键词：基于ESDA的浙江省县域经济空间关联性研究　出处：《宁波大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：从资源禀赋来讲，浙江可以说是“贫穷”的，但是经过三十多年的发展浙江成为中国经济最发达的地区之一，县域经济的贡献是不容忽视的。在2012年中郡县域经济研究所评估的百强县中，浙江独占20席——县域经济已成为浙江经济不可或缺的部分，是其快速发展的主要支撑和动力来源。但是不同县域之间经济发展水平的差异也是显而易见的，关于浙江省经济发展与区域协调的问题前人已做了很多研究，也提出相应的对策建议，但是几乎绝大部分学者都是在浙江省现有的既定的县域经济空间格局情况下，，但事实上由于区域之间存在着扩散和极化效应，在区域经济发展的过程中，其独立发展的理论假设前提是不存在的，区域经济的发展存在某种空间上的关联性。本文以人均GDP作为经济发展的衡量指标，借助ESDA的研究方法，分阶段研究了浙江省县域经济空间关联特征。基于面的全局聚类检验表明全省范围内县域经济分布改变了改革开放之初的分散状态，整体关联性不断增强，表现为显著的全局空间正相关。局部聚类检验显示伴随全局关联性增强的同时，浙江省县域经济南北差异不断扩大，地区极化效应显著。基于不同空间关联模式，对比OLS回归分析以及引入了空间迟滞效应的SAR回归分析，旨在探寻影响县域经济增长的主要因素。对比OLS回归模型和SAR回归模型的分析结果，我们发现浙江省县域经济的增长有明显的空间滞后效应，而且引入了空间滞后效应的SAR模型提高了回归方程的拟合效果。通过在不同时期、不同的空间模式下，SAR回归结果表明人均资本存量、城市化水平、第二产业发展、人均固定资产投资对浙江省县域单元经济发展长期显著，随着产业结构调整与升级、城市化水平提高，第三产业发展和劳动力素质的作用才逐渐显现出来。回归结果还表明道路交通建设并不是影响浙江省县域经济发展的关键因素。随着空间关联性不断增强，浙江县域经济增长的空间滞后效应也在不断增强。由于资本、知识劳动力等流动性大的因素在相邻县域间流动较大，目标县域的产业结构与城市职能建设能否吸引资本、人才流入的关键，成为决定县域经济能否保持快速增长的重要因素。
[Abstract]:In terms of resource endowment, Zhejiang can be said to be "poor", but after more than 30 years of development Zhejiang has become one of the most developed regions in China. The contribution of county economy can not be ignored. In middle of 2012, Zhejiang occupied 20 seats in the hundred strong counties assessed by County economy Research Institute, and county economy has become an indispensable part of Zhejiang economy. It is the main support and power source of its rapid development. But the difference of economic development level between different counties is also obvious. Many researches have been done on the problem of economic development and regional coordination in Zhejiang Province. Also put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, but almost most of the scholars are in the existing situation of the county economy spatial pattern in Zhejiang Province, but in fact, there are diffusion and polarization effects among the regions. In the process of regional economic development, the theoretical premise of its independent development is non-existent, and the development of regional economy has some spatial relevance. In this paper, GDP per capita is taken as the measure of economic development. With the help of the research method of ESDA, this paper studies the spatial correlation characteristics of county economy in Zhejiang Province in stages. The area-based global cluster test shows that the distribution of county economy in the province has changed the decentralized state at the beginning of reform and opening up. The overall correlation is increasing, showing significant global spatial positive correlation. Local cluster test shows that with the increase of overall relevance, the North-South difference of county economy in Zhejiang Province is expanding. Based on different spatial correlation models, OLS regression analysis and SAR regression analysis with spatial hysteresis effect were compared. By comparing the results of OLS regression model and SAR regression model, we find that the growth of county economy in Zhejiang Province has obvious spatial lag effect. In addition, the spatial lag effect of SAR model is introduced to improve the fitting effect of regression equation. The results show that the capital stock per capita and the level of urbanization are different in different periods and different spatial models. The development of the secondary industry and the per capita fixed asset investment have been significant to the county unit economy in Zhejiang Province for a long time. With the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure, the level of urbanization has increased. The effect of the development of tertiary industry and the quality of labor force appeared gradually. The regression result also showed that the road traffic construction is not the key factor to affect the development of county economy in Zhejiang Province. The spatial lag effect of Zhejiang county economic growth is also increasing. Due to the mobility of capital, knowledge labor and other factors in neighboring counties greater mobility. Whether the industrial structure of the target county and the construction of the city functions can attract capital and the inflow of talents has become an important factor to determine whether the county economy can maintain rapid growth.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F224

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