安徽省食品价格波动对城乡居民消费需求变动的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 07:37

本文关键词：安徽省食品价格波动对城乡居民消费需求变动的影响研究　出处：《安徽大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：食品是居民维持基本生存并获取营养的主要来源,是关乎居民日常生活行为的必需消费品,食品价格波动特别是大幅度的变动,时刻牵动着政府与千千万万普通百姓的神经。近年来,安徽省食品价格波动较为频繁且增长幅度明显,2008年与2011年该省食品价格增长幅度分别达到14.3%与12.2%。食品价格波动与居民消费需求息息相关,大幅度的价格增长将会对居民生活与消费行为产生巨大影响。那么,食品价格波动影响居民消费需求的作用路径是怎样的呢?城乡居民在应对食品价格波动时会采取怎样的消费措施呢?不同收入群体对食品价格波动的承受能力是否不同?在不确定预期条件下食品价格波动对居民消费需求的影响有怎样的变化?本文将针对这些问题进行相关分析,试图探索出合理的答案。本文在对食品价格波动与居民消费需求相关文献进行系统梳理的基础上,考察安徽省食品价格波动的总体趋势,并运用H-P滤波法分析食品总体价格以及个别食品种类的波动成分与趋势成分,从而更好的把握食品价格特征。同时,分析食品消费占总消费支出的比值变化,探索安徽居民消费质量与消费结构的变动情况。为加强食品价格波动对居民消费需求影响的作用机理分析,从理论层面上研究在城乡差异、收入差距与不确定预期等条件下食品价格波动对消费需求的影响路径,从而为下文的实证分析提供扎实的理论支持。根据2003-2014年安徽省各地级市的相关数据,本文运用动态面板模型从城乡差异、收入差距与不确定预期三个方面分析食品价格波动对城乡居民消费需求的影响。结果表明食品价格波动与城乡居民消费需求两者间存在负相关关系；相比城镇居民,农村居民消费需求受到食品价格波动的影响更加突出。通货膨胀作用于食品价格波动会进一步阻碍城乡居民消费需求的扩大。在收入差距影响下,食品价格波动对城乡居民消费需求的抑制作用出现小幅度上升。地区经济发展预期小幅提高食品价格波动对城镇居民消费需求的消极影响,却在农村居民消费模型中发挥相反的作用。最后,为减少食品价格波动的不利影响,提高居民消费需求,本文从完善食品价格形成机制、提高居民收入水平并缩小收入差距以及引导消费观念、改善消费环境等方面提出具体的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Food is the main source of residents to maintain basic survival and access to nutrition, is related to the daily life of residents of the necessary consumer goods, food price fluctuations, especially large changes. In recent years, food prices in Anhui Province fluctuate more frequently and increase significantly. In 2008 and 2011, the increase of food prices in the province reached 14.3% and 12.2 respectively. The fluctuation of food prices is closely related to the consumption demand of residents. A large increase in prices will have a huge impact on residents' lives and consumer behavior. What is the path that food price fluctuations affect consumer demand? What consumption measures will urban and rural residents take to cope with food price fluctuations? Are different income groups' ability to withstand food price fluctuations different? What is the effect of food price fluctuation on residents' consumption demand under uncertain expected conditions? This paper will analyze these questions and try to find out a reasonable answer. This paper systematically combed the literature on food price fluctuation and consumer demand. To investigate the general trend of food price fluctuation in Anhui Province, and analyze the fluctuating components and trend components of individual food species by H-P filter method, so as to better grasp the characteristics of food price. This paper analyzes the changes of the ratio of food consumption to total consumption expenditure, and explores the changes of consumption quality and consumption structure of Anhui residents. In order to strengthen the effect of food price fluctuation on the consumption demand of residents, this paper analyzes the mechanism. From the theoretical level to study the impact of food price fluctuations on consumption demand under the conditions of urban-rural differences, income gap and uncertain expectations. In order to provide solid theoretical support for the empirical analysis below. According to the relevant data of each prefecture-level city in Anhui Province from 2003 to 2014, this paper uses the dynamic panel model to analyze the difference between urban and rural areas. The effect of food price fluctuation on the consumption demand of urban and rural residents is analyzed from three aspects of income gap and uncertain expectation. The results show that there is a negative correlation between food price fluctuation and consumption demand of urban and rural residents. Compared to urban residents. The impact of food price fluctuations on the consumption demand of rural residents is more prominent. The effect of inflation on food price fluctuations will further hinder the expansion of consumption demand of urban and rural residents. The effect of food price fluctuation on the consumption demand of urban and rural residents increased slightly, and the regional economic development expected a small increase in food price fluctuations on the negative impact on the consumption demand of urban and rural residents. Finally, in order to reduce the adverse impact of food price fluctuations and improve consumer demand, this paper from the improvement of food price formation mechanism. To improve the income level of residents and narrow the income gap, guide the consumption concept, improve the consumption environment and put forward specific countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F768.2;F126.1

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