人口变化趋势下升学率对GDP影响的仿真研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 23:24

本文关键词：人口变化趋势下升学率对GDP影响的仿真研究　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着科学技术的迅猛发展和知识经济的到来,我国在上个世纪末就提出了“科教兴国”的战略。如今,知识已经成为了社会的又一生产要素。科学技术不断转化为现实生产力,而推动科学技术发展并使之发挥作用的关键因素是人。在过去的30年里,我国快速的人口增长势头得到有效控制,人口总量增长速度下降,但同时老年人口的比重也在不断增加,劳动力人口比重开始减小,使得我国过早进入人口老龄化时期,人口红利持续下降甚至会消失。在经济的增长中,除了物质资本的投入,人力资本也发挥着相当重要的作用。而教育能够提高劳动力的技能水平,提高劳动生产率,是提升人力资本总量的一个重要途径。在我国的现实情况下,研究人口与教育对经济增长的影响作用是有重要的理论和现实意义的。本文旨在分析我国人口、教育和经济增长之间互动关系的历史和现状,探讨未来人口结构变化和教育水平变化对经济的影响作用。为了研究人口、教育、经济之间的关系,本文基于系统动力学的研究方法,绘制包含人口、教育、经济在内的因果关系图,并建立系统动力学模型,研究我国现在人口结构与劳动力数量及未来30年的发展趋势。通过控制儿童入学率和不同级别教育的升学率来分析各等级教育在校的学生人数,进而得到我国人均受教育年限。利用人均受教育年限与劳动力人口数共同代表人力资本(即文中的劳动力教育资本),找到其与经济之间的关系。然后仿真实验不同生育水平和不同升学率情况下的未来GDP发展趋势及GDP增长率变化情况,发现人口增长和教育水平的提高对GDP增长速度都有一定的促进作用。最后根据仿真实验结果提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of science and technology and the arrival of knowledge economy, our country put forward the strategy of "rejuvenating the country through science and education" at the end of last century. Knowledge has become another factor of production in society. Science and technology have been transformed into real productive forces, and the key factor to promote the development and function of science and technology is human. China's rapid population growth momentum has been effectively controlled, the total population growth rate decreased, but at the same time the proportion of the elderly population is also increasing, the proportion of labor force population began to decrease. Make our country enter the aging period of population prematurely, the population dividend will continue to decline or even disappear. In the economic growth, in addition to the input of material capital. Human capital also plays a very important role. And education can improve the skill level of labor force and improve labor productivity, which is an important way to improve the total amount of human capital. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of population and education on economic growth. This paper aims to analyze the history and current situation of the interaction among population, education and economic growth in China. In order to study the relationship among population, education and economy, this paper, based on the research method of system dynamics, draws the concept of population and education. The causality diagram of economy is included, and the system dynamics model is established. This paper studies the current population structure, the number of labor force and the development trend in the next 30 years. It analyzes the number of students in different levels of education by controlling the enrollment rate of children and the transition rate of different levels of education. Then we can get the average number of years of education in our country, the number of years of education and the number of labor force to represent the human capital (that is, the educational capital of labor force in this paper). Find out the relationship between it and the economy. Then simulate the future trend of GDP and the change of GDP growth rate under different fertility level and different transition rate. It is found that the increase of population and education level can promote the growth of GDP to some extent. Finally, according to the results of simulation experiment, the relevant policy suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G40-054;F124

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