新疆区域经济增长差异的收敛性及机制研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 07:01

本文关键词：新疆区域经济增长差异的收敛性及机制研究　出处：《新疆财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：地区经济差异问题一直是研究的热点，研究角度和采用的方法不尽相同。本文主要从经济收敛的角度研究新疆地区经济的差异，采用面板数据模型分别从宏观角度和微观角度分析地区经济差异的收敛性，研究的时期为1995年至2012年。宏观角度分析地区经济差异时主要采用σ指数、绝对β收敛和条件β收敛法检验经济差异的收敛性。经济收敛的微观分析中包括三种微观机制的收敛性分析，即资本收敛机制、劳动生产率收敛机制和技术收敛机制。本文主要结论有：第一，不论从绝对差异还是相对差异指标来看，新疆各地区经济差异均表现出显著的阶段性特征，，由平稳变化到明显扩大再到逐渐回落，主要分界点是在2000年和2006年。人均GDP增长率在2000-2006年最大，扩大时间范围，2000年以来的对应增长率也明显高于2000年以前。这些变化说明了新时期政府的各项有关经济政策对地区经济健康发展是有利的。第二，从宏观角度研究新疆地区经济收敛性，σ指数和绝对β收敛的检验结论一致认为，2000年至2006年是地区间差距快速扩大的时期，并且也是各地区经济发展速度较快的时期。其余时间内地区经济均有所收敛。当考虑实际经济发展中影响地区经济差异的因素后，在这段时期内，经济增长差异是收敛的，但各因素发挥的作用有较大差别。2000年以来，劳动力人数、工业化水平和固定资本投资促进了落后地区的更快速发展，对经济增长差异的收敛是有利的，而选择的财政支出和市场化程度指标则会使得地区经济差异继续扩大，但是对新疆经济的影响低于前三者。第三，从微观角度分析经济收敛机制时，物质资本增长差异的变化总体是收敛的，σ指数发展较稳定，仍可观测到缓慢收敛的趋势，β收敛检验说明收敛速度有下降的趋势。劳动生产率对经济收敛性的作用也是有阶段性的，劳动生产率的收敛机制在2007年后对经济收敛有明显的作用。运用曼奎斯特指数法测算了各地区的TFP增长率和技术进步值，地区的TFP增长率在2006年之前说明TFP年平均在增长，2007年至2012年各地区的TFP有微弱的下降。β收敛检验发现地区TFP增长的速度差异是趋于收敛的，说明了地区之间的TFP差异在减小。
[Abstract]:Regional economic differences have been the focus of research, the research angles and methods are different. This paper mainly from the perspective of economic convergence of Xinjiang regional economic differences. Using panel data model to analyze the convergence of regional economic differences from the macro and micro perspectives respectively. The period of study is from 1995 to 2012. 蟽 index is mainly used when analyzing regional economic difference from macroscopic angle. Absolute 尾 convergence and conditional 尾 convergence test the convergence of economic differences. The microscopic analysis of economic convergence includes the convergence analysis of three kinds of micro mechanisms, namely, capital convergence mechanism. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: First, in terms of absolute or relative differences, the regional economic differences in Xinjiang show significant stage characteristics, from steady changes to obvious expansion and then to gradual decline. The main demarcation points were in 2000 and 2006. The growth rate of GDP per capita was the largest in 2000-2006 and extended the time range. The corresponding growth rate since 2000 is obviously higher than that before 2000. These changes indicate that the relevant economic policies of the government in the new period are beneficial to the healthy development of regional economy. Secondly, from the macro point of view, the economic convergence of Xinjiang is studied. The conclusion of 蟽 index and absolute 尾 convergence agree that the period from 2000 to 2006 is a period of rapid expansion of regional disparity. And it is also a period of rapid economic development in various regions. The rest of the time the regional economy has converged. When considering the actual economic development of the factors affecting regional economic differences, in this period. The difference in economic growth is convergent, but the role played by various factors is quite different. Since 2000, the number of labor force, the level of industrialization and fixed capital investment have promoted the faster development of backward areas. It is advantageous to convergence of economic growth difference, but the choice of financial expenditure and market-oriented degree index will make regional economic difference continue to expand, but the impact on Xinjiang economy is lower than the first three. Thirdly, when analyzing the mechanism of economic convergence from the micro perspective, the variation of the difference in the growth of physical capital is convergent in general, and the 蟽 exponent is stable, and the trend of slow convergence can still be observed. The 尾 -convergence test shows that the convergence rate has a downward trend, and the effect of labor productivity on economic convergence is also phased. The convergence mechanism of labor productivity has an obvious effect on economic convergence after 2007. The TFP growth rate and technological progress in various regions are calculated by using Manquist index method. The region's TFP growth rate before 2006 showed that TFP was growing on average annually. From 2007 to 2012, the TFP of each region decreased slightly. The 尾 -convergence test showed that the regional TFP growth rate difference tended to converge, which indicated that the TFP difference between regions was decreasing.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

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