中国经济短期波动对长期增长的影响——资源在企业间重新配置的视角

发布时间：2018-01-15 01:04

本文关键词：中国经济短期波动对长期增长的影响——资源在企业间重新配置的视角　出处：《管理世界》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2008年国际金融危机之后,中国经济波动明显加剧,增速不断下滑。本文基于熊彼特"创造性破坏"思想,通过改进AABM模型分析中国经济波动如何影响长期增长趋势,并基于中国1979~2012年的省际面板数据实证检验理论模型的部分结论。研究发现:1978年之前,中国经济短期波动与长期增长趋势之间呈现负相关;1978年之后到此轮经济下行之前,中国经济短期波动和长期增长趋势之间呈现正相关;进入新常态以来,中国经济短期波动和长期增长趋势之间又呈现负相关,即在中华人民共和国经济史上,经济波动与经济增长的关系呈现出"负—正—负"的阶段性特征。这3个阶段性特征背后的原因是不同的。1978年以来,中国经济波动和经济增长正相关关系产生的主要原因是改革红利的释放,即通过经济波动淘汰低效率企业和低效率投资项目、优化企业间的资源配置,进而促进经济增长。随着低效率企业和低效率投资项目的减少以及改革逐渐步入深水区,中国经济波动对经济增长的促进效应是递减的。逆转当前中国经济下行,通过深化体制改革,提高市场化程度,促进金融发展,来改进和优化资源在区域间、产业间重新配置是主要出路。
[Abstract]:After the international financial crisis in 2008, the fluctuation of Chinese economy became more and more serious, and the growth rate was declining. This paper is based on Schumpeter's thought of "creative destruction". By improving the AABM model, this paper analyzes how the fluctuation of Chinese economy affects the long-term growth trend. And based on some conclusions of empirical test model of inter-provincial panel data from 1979 to 2012 in China, the study found that: before 1978. There is a negative correlation between the short-term fluctuation of Chinese economy and the long-term growth trend. After 1978, there was a positive correlation between the short-term fluctuation and the long-term growth trend of Chinese economy before this round of economic decline. Since entering the new normal, there is a negative correlation between the short-term fluctuation and the long-term growth trend of the Chinese economy, that is, in the economic history of the people's Republic of China. The relationship between economic fluctuation and economic growth shows the "negative-positive-negative" phase characteristics. The reasons behind these three stages are different. Since 1978. The main reason for the positive correlation between economic fluctuation and economic growth in China is the release of reform dividend, that is, the elimination of inefficient enterprises and inefficient investment projects through economic fluctuations, and the optimization of resource allocation among enterprises. And then promote economic growth. With the reduction of inefficient enterprises and inefficient investment projects and reform gradually into the deep water area. The promotion effect of China's economic fluctuation on economic growth is diminishing. Reverse the current downward trend of China's economy and improve and optimize resources among regions by deepening institutional reform, improving marketization and promoting financial development. Industrial reconfiguration is the main way out.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;中国人民大学统计学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“中国经济自发展能力研究”(15ZDB133)的成果之一
【分类号】：F124
【正文快照】： 一、引言2008年国际金融危机之后,中国经济呈现出波动加剧、增速放缓的现象。若与危机前2007年14.2%的增速相比,此轮经济下滑幅度已超过50%(2015年已跌破7.0%)。若从季度数据来看,从2010第一季度的12.2%高点开始,经济增速已经连续23个季度走低,其中有15个季度增速低于8%。此轮

【相似文献】