经济发展中金融杠杆的门槛效应分析——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 13:16

本文关键词： 金融杠杆经济发展金融改革门槛效应　出处：《金融评论》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：自美国次贷危机爆发以来,杠杆问题成为全球关注的热点。本文基于41个国家(地区)1996-2014年的面板数据,采用门槛面板模型对金融杠杆与经济发展之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明:金融杠杆促进了经济发展,但这种促进作用存在着门槛效应,金融杠杆对经济发展的促进作用会随着金融发展情况的变动而显著变化。具体而言,金融规模的扩张会削弱金融杠杆对经济发展的促进作用;而金融效率提升和金融结构优化则有助于增强金融杠杆在经济增长中的促进作用。基于以上分析,积极进行杠杆内部结构调整、增强金融服务实体经济能力、优化信贷结构、建设多层次资本市场,有助于充分发挥金融杠杆在经济增长中的作用,实现"去杠杆"与经济发展的协调进行,为"新常态"下中国经济的可持续发展提供动力。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the issue of leverage has become a global concern. This paper is based on panel data from 41 countries (regions) from 1996 to 2014. An empirical study on the relationship between financial leverage and economic development is carried out using threshold panel model. The results show that financial leverage promotes economic development, but there is a threshold effect in this role. The role of financial leverage in promoting economic development will change significantly with the change of financial development. Specifically, the expansion of financial scale will weaken the role of financial leverage in promoting economic development; The improvement of financial efficiency and the optimization of financial structure will help to enhance the role of financial leverage in the promotion of economic growth. Based on the above analysis, we actively adjust the internal structure of leverage and enhance the real economic capacity of financial services. Optimizing the credit structure and building a multi-level capital market will help to give full play to the role of financial leverage in economic growth and realize the coordination between "deleveraging" and economic development. To provide the impetus for the sustainable development of Chinese economy under the new normal.
【作者单位】：中国滨海金融协同创新中心;天津财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目(11&ZD017);国家社科基金青年项目(17CJY058) 天津市社会科学研究规划项目(TJYY16-012)资助
【分类号】：F113;F831
【正文快照】： “杠杆”一词源于物理学,而古希腊科学家阿基米德的名言“给我一个支点,我就能撬起整个地球”形象地说明了杠杆的作用。金融所具有的资金配置功能,帮助资金短缺方通过借贷等方式筹集资金来完成各类交易,实现了金融杠杆效应。但金融杠杆过高所带来的高负债、过度证券化以及资产

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