资源环境约束下的塔吉克斯坦经济可持续发展研究
发布时间:2018-01-19 20:10
本文关键词: 资源环境 支撑能力 经济可持续发展 协调发展度 塔吉克斯坦 出处:《新疆农业大学》2014年博士论文 论文类型:学位论文
【摘要】:可持续发展是指既满足当代人需求的同时,也不对后代人满足其需求的能力造成危害的发展,是建立在经济、社会、生态可持续性基础上的经济、社会、人口与自然环境的协调发展。而经济可持续发展在可持续发展系统中处于核心地位。经济可持续发展的实质是经济发展不能超出资源环境的承载能力,是经济与资源环境的协调发展。自然资源约束是指在经济社会发展过程中,由于自然资源供给数量的减少、质量下降、开发利用难度变大和资源禀赋优越所引起的自然资源供给短缺或过剩,对经济增长形成制约的现象。而自然资源可持续发展是可持续发展系统的重要基石。 塔吉克斯坦是位于中亚东南部的内陆国家,境内多高山,约占国土面积的93%;水利资源丰富,位列世界第八位,其储藏量占中亚一半左右;矿产资源种类丰富,部分矿产资源储量大,已发现400多个矿带,探明有铅锌、金、钨、锑、银及锡等贵金属,以及油气及石盐等50多种矿物质,其中银、铅锌、锑及石盐等资源储量居世界或亚洲前列。近些年,塔吉克斯坦经济增长率保持在7%以上,2013年国内生产总值为85亿美元,一、二、三产业分别占国内生产总值的21.1%、23.2%及55.7%。第三产业对经济增长的拉动作用较大,而国内消费是经济增长的主要动力,外债占国内生产总值的25.4%。 本论文以可持续发展理论和自然资源约束理论为基础,分析自然资源约束下塔吉克斯坦资源环境与经济发展的关系,探寻影响其经济发展的主要问题,以期找到实现经济可持续发展的对策。主要包括以下内容:(1)自然资源对经济发展的约束分析;(2)分别从塔吉克斯坦的水资源、土地资源、矿产资源、环境资源等方面对经济增长的支撑能力进行分析,并通过构建评价指标体系,对其资源环境的综合支撑能力进行测算和分析;(3)在分析塔吉克斯坦经济增长特征的基础上,对其经济增长的动力和质量进行定量分析;(4)构建经济、资源环境协调发展的综合评价指标体系,并运用协调度模型,评价和分析塔吉克斯坦经济与资源环境协调发展水平;(5)分析塔吉克斯坦经济可持续发展潜力及其主要问题;(6)借鉴发达国家可持续发展经验,,探讨塔吉克斯坦经济可持续发展的阶段特征,给出促进其经济可持续发展的对策措施。 通过以上分析,得出以下结论: 一是塔吉克斯坦自然资源中石油及天然气资源、土地资源等十分短缺,对经济发展形成硬约束,而矿产资源多处于勘探开发阶段,目前对经济发展的贡献水平较低。 二是塔吉克斯坦经济发展水平低,对外依存度高,劳务经济是经济增长的主要支撑,2012年劳务汇款占国内生产总值的48%。同时,工业发展滞后,工业产值占GDP比重低,占GDP的14.4%;城市化水平低,农业就业人口比重高。与国际比较,塔吉克斯坦尚处于工业化起步阶段。 三是塔吉克斯坦自然资源及环境的支撑能力体现在:①石油及天然气资源、土地资源对经济增长的支撑能力弱,而水资源、环境状况、矿产物质资源对经济增长的支撑能力相对较强。②资源环境对经济增长的综合支撑能力较强,反映出塔吉克斯坦资源环境支撑经济增长的负荷低。 四是目前塔吉克斯坦经济发展处于弱可持续性状态。经济、资源环境协调(发展)度测算结果显示:塔吉克斯坦经济发展与资源环境的协调度较高,但协调发展度较低,表明目前其经济发展对资源环境的影响、损耗程度还较低,处于经济与资源环境低水平协调发展的状态,对资源环境的利用效率也低。 鉴于以上分析,结合塔吉克斯坦资源环境状况和经济发展能力,本文从推动工业结构调整升级、积极发展现代农业与服务业、发展民营经济、积极发展边境走廊、加快人力资本积累、积极参加“丝绸之路经济带”建设等方面,给出塔吉克斯坦实现经济可持续发展的对策。同时,为了摆脱或缓解资源环境对经济发展的约束,塔吉克斯坦应注重发展循环经济,不仅可以保障可持续发展对策的实施,还可以提高经济发展对资源环境的利用率,减少对自然资源的开发。
[Abstract]:Sustainable development is to satisfy the needs of contemporary people at the same time, nor the ability of future generations to meet their needs of harm to the development, is based on economic, social and ecological sustainability based on economic, social and natural environment, the coordinated development of population and economy. The sustainable development is the core of sustainable development system the essence of sustainable economic development. Economic development is not beyond the capacity of resources and environment, coordinated development of economy and resource environment. Natural resources constraint refers to the process of economic and social development, due to reduced number of supply of natural resources utilization quality decreased, the difficulty of change and resource endowment advantages by nature resource shortage or excess of restricted economic growth. And the sustainable development of natural resources is an important foundation for the sustainable development of the system.
Tajikistan is a landlocked country located in southeastern Asia, the territory of mountains, about 93% of the total land area; water is rich in resources, ranked eighth in the world, accounting for about half of its reserves in Central Asia; mineral resources is abundant, some mineral resources reserves, has found more than 400 ore belt, proven lead-zinc, gold, tungsten, antimony and tin, silver and other precious metals, oil and gas and halite and other 50 kinds of minerals, including silver, zinc, antimony and halite reserves in the world and Asia. In recent years, Tajikistan's economic growth rate remained above 7% of GDP in 2013 to $8 billion 500 million, two, three respectively, the domestic industry gross production of 21.1%, 23.2% and third 55.7%. industry a greater role in boosting economic growth, while domestic consumption is the main driving force of economic growth, debt to GDP 25.4%.
This thesis is based on the theory of sustainable development and natural resources constraint theory, analysis of the relationship between economic development and resource environment in Tajikistan's natural resource constraints, to explore the main problems affecting its economic development, in order to find the countermeasures to realize the sustainable development of economy. Mainly includes the following contents: (1) analysis of the restriction of natural resources to economic development; (2) from the Tajikistan water resources, land resources, mineral resources, analysis of the ability to support economic growth and environment resources, and constructs the evaluation index system, comprehensive support capacity of the resource environment of the calculation and analysis; (3) based on the analysis of Tajikistan economic growth characteristics, quantitative analysis of the power and the quality of economic growth; (4) economic construction, the comprehensive evaluation index system of coordinated development of resources and environment, and use coordination degree model Type, evaluation and analysis of Tajikistan resources environment and economy coordinated development level; (5) analysis of the sustainable development of Tajikistan economy and its potential problems; (6) the sustainable development experience of developed countries for reference, to explore the stage characteristics of the sustainable development of Tajikistan economy, countermeasures are given to promote the sustainable development of economy.
Through the above analysis, the following conclusions are drawn.
First, Tajikistan's natural resources, such as oil and natural gas resources and land resources, are very scarce, which are hard constraints on economic development. Mineral resources are mostly in the stage of exploration and development. At present, their contribution to economic development is relatively low.
The two is the Tajikistan economic development level is low, high dependence on foreign labor, the economy is the main support for economic growth in 2012, workers' remittances to GDP 48%. at the same time, the industrial development lag, industrial output value accounted for the proportion of GDP accounted for 14.4% of GDP; low, low level of city, the proportion of agricultural employment population is high. And the international comparison. Tajikistan is still in the initial stage of industrialization.
The three is the ability to support the Tajikistan natural resources and the environment is reflected in the oil and gas resources, land resources to support economic growth ability is weak, and the water resources, environmental conditions, mineral material resources to support the capacity of economic growth is relatively strong. The resources and environment on economic growth and comprehensive supporting ability, reflecting Tajikistan resources and environment to support economic growth and low load.
The four is the economic development of Tajikistan is in a weak state. The sustainable economy, resources and environment coordination (Development) of the calculation results show that: the Tajikistan economic development and resources and the environment coordination degree is higher, but the coordinated development degree is low, which indicates that the current economic impact on the resource environment, consumption level is still relatively low, in the economic and the low level of resources and environment coordinated development of the state, the utilization efficiency of resources and the environment is low.
In view of the above analysis, combined with the Tajikistan resources and environment condition and economic development, this paper promote the upgrading of industrial structure adjustment, and actively develop modern agriculture and service industry, the development of private economy, and actively develop border corridor, accelerate the accumulation of human capital, and actively participate in the "Silk Road Economic Belt" construction, and puts forward countermeasures for realizing the sustainable development of economy in Tajikistan at the same time, in order to get rid of or ease the resource and environmental constraints on economic development, Tajikistan should focus on the development of circular economy, the implementation can not only guarantee the sustainable development strategy, but also can improve the economic development and utilization of resources environment, reduce the exploitation of natural resources.
【学位授予单位】:新疆农业大学
【学位级别】:博士
【学位授予年份】:2014
【分类号】:F136.5
本文编号:1445385
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