开放条件下中国金融发展与产业结构调整的关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 19:35

本文关键词： 开放经济条件银行信贷资本市场 GMM模型产业结构优化升级　出处：《海南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放30年来,我国的经济开放程度不断地提高,进出口贸易、FDI和QFII等对我国的影响也越来越显著。经济在持续高速增长的同时存在着严重的问题,能否实现产业结构升级将成为影响我国经济今后是否能够长期稳健增长的重要因素。而金融体系的快速发展能够为产业结构优化升级提供大量资金支持,在产业结构优化升级过程中起到极其重要的作用。因而在后危机时代,研究开放经济条件下,我国产业结构优化升级的金融支持显得尤为重要。本文通过详细论述金融发展作用于产业结构优化升级的机理过程得到理论上的研究支持,对具体的现实状况进行深入研究,同时比较借鉴美、日、德三国发展经验,从理论与现实两个方面对开放经济条件下产业结构优化升级的金融支持进行深入探讨,认为在我国目前发展阶段中,暂且不必过多考虑银行信贷与资本市场的主导者问题,而应充分发挥两个不同市场的融资功能,深化金融市场改革,从而更好地为产业结构的优化升级服务。在实证方面,本文选取19942008年中国17个省份的面板数据,并运用在面板数据模型的估计中得到了广泛的运用的GMM方法进行估计,更好地解决了必须事先明确模型随机误差项的具体分布问题,以及金融发展与产业结构升级之间可能存在的内生性关系问题。解释变量则选取了融资结构(股票筹资额/银行信贷增加额)和银行发达程度(银行年末贷款额/GDP),资本产出率、财政支出与GDP占比以及经济开放度(出口额与FDI),分别与被解释变量产业结构优化与产业结构升级进行实证分析,最终得出：在产业结构优化方面,融资方式对产业结构优化影响不显著,银行发达程度对产业结构影响也不显著。在产业结构升级方面,融资方式对产业结构升级影响不显著,而银行发达程度对产业结构升级影响比较显著。另外,经济开放度的逐渐增加,对于我国产业结构优化升级都具有一定作用。最后,在所得结论的基础上提出了相关政策建议。在稳步推进经济开放程度的不断增加的前提下,应该深化金融体制改革,建立健全金融体系和资本市场,加速推进利率市场化,拓宽融资渠道,制定和协调相关产业政策和金融政策,充分发挥现代金融结构融通资金产业结构升级的重要作用。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up 30 years ago, China's economic openness has been continuously improved, and China's import and export trade has been continuously improved. The influence of FDI and QFII on our country is more and more obvious. There are serious problems while the economy continues to grow at high speed. Whether we can realize the upgrading of industrial structure will become an important factor that will affect the long-term steady growth of our economy, and the rapid development of the financial system can provide a large amount of financial support for the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. It plays an extremely important role in the process of industrial structure optimization and upgrading, so in the post-crisis era, it is particularly important to study the financial support for the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in China under the conditions of open economy. Through the detailed discussion on the mechanism of financial development in the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, this paper has been supported by theoretical research, in-depth study of the specific reality, and the comparison of the United States and Japan. The development experience of the three countries in Germany, from the theoretical and practical aspects of the open economy under the conditions of industrial structure optimization and upgrading of the financial support for in-depth discussion, that in the current stage of development in China. For the time being, we should give full play to the financing function of the two different markets and deepen the financial market reform, so as to better serve the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure. In the empirical aspect, this paper selects the panel data of 17 provinces in China from 1994 to 2008, and applies the widely used GMM method to estimate the panel data model. A better solution to the problem of the specific distribution of the random error term of the model must be made clear in advance. And the possible endogenous relationship between financial development and industrial structure upgrading. The explanatory variables select financing structure (equity financing / bank credit increase) and bank development (. Bank year-end loans / GDPs. The ratio of capital output, the ratio of fiscal expenditure to GDP, and the degree of economic openness (export value and GDP, respectively) are empirically analyzed with the explained variables of industrial structure optimization and industrial structure upgrading. Finally, in terms of industrial structure optimization, the impact of financing mode on industrial structure optimization is not significant, and the degree of bank development has no significant impact on industrial structure. Financing mode has no significant impact on the upgrading of industrial structure, while the degree of bank development has a more significant impact on the upgrading of industrial structure. In addition, the degree of economic openness gradually increases. For China's industrial structure optimization and upgrading have a certain role. Finally, on the basis of the conclusions, the paper puts forward the relevant policy recommendations. On the premise of steadily advancing the increasing degree of economic opening, we should deepen the reform of the financial system and establish and improve the financial system and capital market. It is necessary to accelerate the marketization of interest rates, widen financing channels, formulate and coordinate relevant industrial policies and financial policies, and give full play to the important role of modern financial structure in upgrading the industrial structure of financing.
【学位授予单位】：海南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832;F121.3

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