中国省域经济发展的空间计量分析

发布时间：2018-01-19 22:56

本文关键词： 省域经济发展空间集聚空间计量　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济处于长期持续增长,然而经济快速发展的同时也带来了区域经济发展的不平衡问题,表现在区域经济发展存在较大差异。2015年,我国人均GDP最高最低省份差四倍多,并且人均GDP高的省份集中在东部,低的省份主要位于西部。这种现象的存在能否说明中国省域经济发展水平存在较大差异,其变化趋势是怎样的?又是否说明中国省域经济发展水平在空间上存在集聚效应?一个省市区经济发展是否会影响到邻近地区的经济发展?影响省域经济发展的主要因素又是什么?这是本文主要研究的问题,同时也是我国经济实现长期均衡稳定发展所必须关注的问题。首先,本文通过计算2000-2015年中国省域经济发展水平的极差、标准差和相对极差,发现经济发展水平的绝对差异在不断增大,而相对极差在2005年之后呈现不断下降趋势。同时,从GDP、人口与收入角度采用综合指标对我国21世纪以来省域经济发展差异的变化趋势进行测度与分析,发现2001年之后,基尼系数基本呈现稳定态势;而加权变异系数和泰尔指数从2000-2007年处于相对稳定状态,2007年之后呈现持续下降的趋势。由此证明了中国省域经济发展存在较大差异,但具有不断缩小的发展趋势。其次,通过全局空间自相关分析,发现中国省域经济存在正的空间相关性,说明中国省域经济发展具有空间依赖性。进行Moran散点图分析可以看出,绝大多数省份位于第一三象限,表现正的空间自相关。同时由中国省域经济的LISA集聚图可知,中国省域经济发展水平低-低集聚的最多,主要集中于西部省份,并以西南为主,形成了经济塌陷区;中国省域经济发展水平高-高集聚的区域并不多,并且主要位于长江三角洲和北京地区。由此证明了中国省域经济发展水平在空间上存在集聚效应,一个省市区经济的发展会影响到邻近地区的经济发展。然后,通过建立空间误差模型得出产业结构指标、人力资本指标和外商直接投资规模指标的回归系数均为正数,与预期的结果一致,并通过了5%的显著性检验。由此得出了影响省域经济发展的主要因素是产业结构、人力资本和外商直接投资。最后,根据研究成果,提出了促进省域经济协调发展的合理建议与措施。即促进不发达省市区产业结构的升级;加大不发达地区高素质人才培养,促进教育交流;促进中西部地区积极引进外商投资,加大对外贸易水平。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been growing continuously for a long time. However, the rapid development of the economy has also brought about the imbalance of regional economic development, which is manifested in the great differences in regional economic development. 2015. The difference between the provinces with the highest and lowest GDP per capita in China is more than four times, and the provinces with high per capita GDP are concentrated in the east. The low provinces are mainly located in the west. Can the existence of this phenomenon indicate that there are great differences in the level of economic development in China's provinces, and what is the trend of its change? Does it mean that there is agglomeration effect in the development level of China's provincial economy? Will the economic development of a province, municipality or municipality affect the economic development of neighbouring areas? What are the main factors that affect the economic development of the province? This is the main research of this paper, but also the long-term balanced and stable development of our economy must pay attention to. First of all. By calculating the extreme deviation, standard deviation and relative extreme difference of China's provincial economic development level from 2000 to 2015, it is found that the absolute difference of economic development level is constantly increasing. The relative range showed a downward trend after 2005. At the same time, from the GDP. From the perspective of population and income, this paper measures and analyzes the variation trend of economic development difference between provinces since 21th century, and finds that after 2001, the Gini coefficient presents a stable trend. The weighted coefficient of variation and the Tyr index are relatively stable from 2000 to 2007 and show a downward trend after 2007, which proves that there are great differences in the development of Chinese provincial economy. Secondly, through the global spatial autocorrelation analysis, we find that there is a positive spatial correlation in China's provincial economy. The analysis of Moran scatter plot shows that the vast majority of provinces are located in the 13th quadrant. The positive spatial autocorrelation. At the same time, from the LISA agglomeration map of the Chinese provincial economy, we can see that the development level of the provincial economy in China is the most, mainly concentrated in the western provinces, and mainly in the southwest. Forming an economic collapse area; There are not many regions with high level of economic development in China, which are mainly located in the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing area, which proves that there is agglomeration effect on the level of economic development in the provincial area of China. The economic development of a province or city will affect the economic development of neighboring areas. Then, through the establishment of spatial error model to obtain the industrial structure indicators. The regression coefficients of human capital index and foreign direct investment scale index are both positive, which is consistent with the expected results. Through the significance test of 5%, the paper concludes that the main factors influencing the development of provincial economy are industrial structure, human capital and foreign direct investment. Finally, according to the research results. The paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions and measures to promote the coordinated development of provincial economy, that is, to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of underdeveloped provinces and municipalities; To increase the cultivation of high-quality talents in underdeveloped areas and to promote educational exchanges; We will encourage the central and western regions to actively introduce foreign investment and increase the level of foreign trade.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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