中国人口年龄结构对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 00:50

本文关键词： 人口年龄结构经济增长人口红利劳动人口比重　出处：《辽宁大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自新中国成立以来特别是从改革开放开始,我国经济增长非常快,人均国内生产总值的增长率在9%左右,经济总量已经仅次于美国,位居世界第二大经济体,“中国经济增长奇迹”引发我国乃至各国经济学家试图对其背后的原因进行探析,其中劳动人口占比的不断上升为我国经济增长一个不可忽视的原因。但近年来,我国的人口年龄结构也发生了明显的变化,在整理1949-2014年我国人口的出生率、死亡率以及自然增长率数据的基础上,通过分析我国人口转变所经历的三个阶段以及相应的人口年龄结构的变化情况发现,我国所具备的人口年龄结构优势开始出现消退。在2000年我国的老年人口占比就已位于7.01%,人口老龄化现象开始出现；2010年我国的人口总抚养比也在经历持续下降后开始转为上升,2012年劳动人口占比更是出现了首次下降,随之出现“用工荒”和“养老荒”的双重困境。为应对这一挑战,我国自2013年11月12日,我国决定实行夫妻双方中有单独则可生育二胎政策,而自2016年1月起又开始实行全面放开“二胎”。本文则是在这一背景下,以期从理论及实证方面并结合我国的实际情况,分别探析我国人口年龄结构对经济增长所产生的影响。为此,本文首先回顾并梳理国内外人口年龄结构与经济增长的相关文献资料,并在此基础上提出本文的理论研究框架；其次本文在对相关的人口转变理论、人口年龄结构和人口红利理论以及新增长理论分别作介绍的基础上,阐述了人口年龄结构影响经济增长的具体作用途径以及其经验阐述。但是不同于大多数文献从人口红利的视角出发来探究人口年龄结构对经济增长的影响,本文指出劳动人口占比分别从影响劳动供给、社会储蓄和人力资本存量方面来影响经济增长,夯实了人口年龄结构与经济增长的理论依据;接着根据搜集的1990-2014年共25年的时间序列统计数据,并以加入人力资本的索洛模型为分析基础,在回归模型中不仅把劳动人口占比单独当做一个自变量以此探究其对经济增长的直接作用,而且还把劳动人口占比变量与人力资本存量变量的交互项加入模型中来考察人口年龄结构对经济增长产生的间接作用,并通过OLS估计方法来进行实证研究。根据回归的模型实证研究表明：当劳动人口比重增长1个百分比时,人均GDP会相应地增长1.53个百分比,而当将劳动人口比重增加1个百分比时,通过作用于健康型人力资本和教育型人力资本存量中时,对经济增长的人力资本效应也为正,具体来说就是当一个社会中的劳动人口的比重增长1个百分比时,人力资本存量会相应的增加从而使得人均GDP增长0.34个百分比。最后本文根据上述的实证研究结论并结合我国实际情况分别从增加劳动力供给、提高劳动者的素质、创造新的储蓄源泉以及发展老龄化产业几个方面提出相关政策建议来更有效的促进经济增长,为我国经济提供新的增长源泉。
[Abstract]:Since the founding of new Chinese especially from the beginning of reform and opening up, China's economic growth is very fast, the per capita GDP growth rate of about 9%, total economic output has ranked second only to the United States, the world's second largest economy, "Chinese" the miracle of economic growth caused by Chinese and other economists are trying to carry on analysis of the reasons behind them. The working population accounted for the rise of China's economic growth as a reason not to be ignored. But in recent years, China's population age structure has changed significantly, finishing in the 1949-2014 years of China's population birth rate, mortality rate and natural growth rate based on the data, through the analysis of the three stages the change of China's population and population age structure changes corresponding to the situation found that the advantage of age structure of population in China has began to subside. In 2000 China's elderly Proportion of the population has been in 7.01%, population aging phenomenon began to appear in 2010; China's population total dependency ratio began to decline after the turn to increase the labor population in 2012 accounted for more fell for the first time, the dilemma appears "labor shortage" and "pension shortage" to deal with this. A challenge in China since November 12, 2013, our country decided to implement a couple in a separate family can two-child policy, since January 2016 began to implement the full liberalization of the second child. This article is in this context, in order to combine the actual situation of our country and from theoretical and empirical aspects, respectively, the influence of China's population age structure of economic growth. Therefore, this paper firstly reviews and combs the related literature at home and abroad the age structure of the population and economic growth, and on the basis of the theoretical framework of this study Secondly; based on the demographic transition theory, population structure and demographic dividend theory and new growth theory are introduced on the basis of the detail mechanism of the effect of population age structure of economic growth and the experience described. But different from most of the literature from the perspective of demographic dividend to explore the effect of the structure of population age economic growth, this paper points out that the working population accounted from the impact of labor supply, social savings and the stock of human capital to economic growth, strengthening the theoretical basis of population age structure and economic growth; then according to the statistical data collected by the 1990-2014 25 years, and to join the Solow Model for human capital the basis of the analysis, in the regression model, not only the working population accounted for separately as an independent variable to explore the economic growth directly The role, but also the working population accounted for the interaction into the model to examine the population age structure on economic growth and the indirect effects of variables and human capital variables, and estimated by the OLS method to carry out the empirical research. According to the empirical research shows that the regression model: when the labor population proportion growth 1 percentage points, per capita GDP the growth of 1.53 percentage points, while the labor population proportion increase 1 percentage points, by acting on the health human capital and education human capital stock, human capital effect on economic growth is positive, specifically when a society in the proportion of the working population increased by 1 percentage points when the stock of human capital will be increased so that the per capita GDP growth of 0.34 percentage points. According to the above empirical research conclusions and combined with the actual situation in China. From the aspects of increasing labor supply, improving the quality of laborers, creating new sources of savings, and developing aging industry, we put forward relevant policy recommendations to promote economic growth more effectively and provide new source of growth for our economy.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.2;F124.1

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