FDI对中国经济增长门槛效应的研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 17:35

本文关键词： FDI 经济增长门槛效应　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：外商直接投资(FDI)对一国的贸易增长、技术进步以及产业结构调整升级都具有重要的促进作用。改革开放以来,中国实际利用外商直接投资不断增加,FDI已成为影响中国经济发展的重要因素之一。根据联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)发布的《2015年世界投资报告》,中国吸收FDI在2014年首次超过美国,成为世界上最大的外国资本流入国家,但紧接着在2015年便被美国大幅超越。可见,在全球经济形势不明朗、中国经济发展进入新常态的背景下,中国利用外商投资的水平要继续保持稳定增长仍然面临挑战,因而在新形势下深化FDI对中国经济影响的研究非常有必要。本文系统性地研究了 FDI对中国经济增长的门槛效应,具体涉及外商直接投资的范围及进入模式的研究、外商直接投资对经济增长的影响研究、外商直接投资门槛效应理论等方面。外商直接投资对资本输入国家的作用主要体现在资本效应和技术外溢效应上,然而这两方面效应在数据上的表现并不明显,本文倾向于直接对最终效果,也就是经济增长进行衡量。本文选择经典的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,并构建了门限回归模型,对外商直接投资的经济增长效应进行了回归,对四个可能的门槛变量进行探究,发现了它们各自具有的门槛效应。研究结果发现,在不考虑门槛变量的情况下,外商直接投资对经济增长的促进效果是显著的,弹性系数达到了 1.94。在得到总体回归效果显著后,我们针对四个门槛效应进行了验证。发现以基础教育年限为衡量的人力资本只具有单门槛效应,门槛值为8.3834;对以交通运力为代表的基础设施水平的门槛效应研究中,我们也发现了单门槛效应,该数值是比较高的,并且在我国能够达到的地区比较少;在对外贸易开放度分析后同样也得到了单门槛效应,但是该门槛值只有北京、上海、广东等经济最发达的地方可以达到;对金融发展程度的研究中,我们得到了单门槛效应,并且门槛值是大部分地区可以达到的。
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an important role in promoting a country's trade growth, technological progress and industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. Since the reform and opening up, China's actual use of foreign direct investment has been increasing. FDI has become one of the most important factors affecting China's economic development. According to the 2015 World Investment report issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). China overtook the United States for the first time in 2014 to become the world's largest inflow of foreign capital, but was overtaken by the United States in 2015. Under the background of China's economic development entering the new normal, the level of foreign investment in China will continue to maintain stable growth and still face challenges. Therefore, it is necessary to deepen the study of the impact of FDI on China's economy under the new situation. This paper systematically studies the threshold effect of FDI on China's economic growth. Specifically involves the scope of foreign direct investment and the model of entry, the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. The effect of FDI on the capital importing country is mainly reflected in the capital effect and technology spillover effect, but these two effects are not obvious in the data. This paper tends to directly measure the final effect, that is, economic growth. This paper chooses the classic Cobb-Douglas production function, and constructs a threshold regression model. The economic growth effect of FDI is regressed, four possible threshold variables are explored, and their threshold effects are found. The results show that the threshold variables are not considered. The effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth is significant, the elastic coefficient reaches 1.94. After the overall regression effect is significant. We verify the four threshold effects. It is found that the human capital measured by the basic education years only has a single threshold effect, the threshold value is 8.3834; In the study of the threshold effect of infrastructure level represented by transportation capacity, we also found the single threshold effect, which is relatively high, and can be achieved in less areas in China; After the analysis of foreign trade openness, the single threshold effect is also obtained, but only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other economically most developed places can achieve the threshold. In the study of the degree of financial development, we get the single threshold effect, and the threshold value can be achieved in most areas.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F124.1

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