环境综合污染程度与人均居民可支配收入关系的EKC验证

发布时间：2018-01-22 01:57

本文关键词： 经济发展环境污染环境库兹涅兹曲线分位数回归法　出处：《中国科技论坛》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文首先选取中国1991—2012年7类环境污染物数据,建立起环境综合污染程度指标体系,测算环境综合污染得分,然后采用分位数回归方法对环境综合污染程度得分与人均可支配收入中值的关系进行实证检验。研究发现:中国环境综合污染程度与人均可支配收入呈现倒U型的EKC关系,曲线的拐点在1.45万元处;在0.25分位点处为线性关系,在0.5和0.75分位点处为倒U型EKC关系;产业结构、城市化水平、人口密度和外商直接投资对不同分位点下的污染程度有着显著影响;ARMA模型预测中国环境质量在2022年后达到稳定状态。最后根据研究结果,从政府、企业和科研机构三个层面提出相应的建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, seven kinds of environmental pollutant data from 1991 to 2012 in China are selected, and the index system of environmental comprehensive pollution is established, and the score of environmental comprehensive pollution is calculated. Then the quantile regression method is used to test the relationship between the comprehensive environmental pollution score and the median per capita disposable income. The relationship between the degree of comprehensive environmental pollution and per capita disposable income in China is inversely U-shaped EKC. The inflection point of the curve is 14,500 yuan; The linear relationship was found at 0.25 locus and inverted U-type EKC relationship at 0. 5 and 0. 75 loci. Industrial structure, urbanization level, population density and foreign direct investment (FDI) have significant influence on the pollution degree at different loci. The ARMA model predicts that the environmental quality of China will reach a stable state after 2022. Finally, according to the research results, the corresponding suggestions are put forward from three aspects: government, enterprises and scientific research institutions.
【作者单位】：四川大学商学院;
【基金】：四川大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目“深化开放式创新在中国情境下的研究”(skqx201502)
【分类号】：F126.2;X24
【正文快照】： 1引言近年来,中国环境质量与经济发展之间的矛盾日益恶化。据《2015年中国环境状况公报》统计,全国338个城市中,仅有73个城市空气质量达标。国家每年由环境破坏引起的经济损失占据当年GDP的7%~8%,并呈现上升趋势[1]。如今中国进入了经济新常态,经济发展从高速增长向中高速增长

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