浙江金融结构影响经济增长的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 04:31

本文关键词： 金融结构经济增长 VEC 广义脉冲响应函数　出处：《浙江理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：一个国家或地区的金融结构能否为当地的经济发展有效地提供金融服务，已受到学术界的广泛关注，国内外大量研究文献表明金融结构对经济增长有推动作用，然而对一个区域的研究，大多数局限于金融发展与经济增长的研究中，具体到浙江省，许多学者只是从金融总量或金融中介的单方面来研究金融发展或金融结构与经济增长的简单线性关系，少数能全面综合考虑银行、证券、保险和货币的金融结构，，以及研究它们之间的长期和短期的关系。2012年浙江省经济增速全国倒数，受到各界争议，而浙江省的经济和金融都在全国处于领先水平，这在某种程度上表明浙江省的金融结构可能与经济增长存在某种不平衡的问题。因此，根据现有研究的不足，本文创新性综合银行、证券、保险和货币的金融结构来考察浙江金融结构对经济增长的长短期影响。本文首先对国内外相关文献和理论进行了梳理，得出目前文献关于区域金融结构的理论研究和指标选取存在不足，并提出在研究中改进以往浙江省的金融结构指标选取和研究方法；其次，本文借鉴国外金融与经济增长关系的相关理论，结合金融经济的实际情况，对金融结构作用经济增长的传导机制进行了分析；然后，在理论分析的基础上，对浙江省金融结构和经济发展的情况进行了基本统计分析。最后，运用主成分分析法引入三个金融结构因子得分（金融总量因子得分、金融融资结构因子得分、金融效率因子得分），然后将它们与人均GDP增长率进行Granger因果检验、VEC模型和广义脉冲响应函数分析，以检验浙江金融结构对经济增长的长短期影响，以及这种影响的方向、程度和时滞性。通过理论分析和实证研究，本文得出以下结论：一、金融总量结构可以借助金融功能影响储蓄率、储蓄投资转化率、资本边际生产率和企业家创新活动，进而影响资本积累和技术创新，从而促进经济增长。金融融资结构可以通过经济结构优化来促进经济增长。二、目前浙江省金融是以银行为主导的金融体系，虽然金融结构已经很发达并高于全国平均水平，但直接融资能力还有待提高；虽然经济增长水平一直位于全国前列，但经济结构没有达到经济发展需要的最优结构。三、金融总量因子得分、金融融资结构因子得分、金融效率因子得分，均是引起经济增长的Granger原因；在长期里，金融总量因子和金融融资结构因子与人均GDP增长率之间呈现反向变动关系，金融效率因子与人均GDP增长率之间呈现同向变动关系；在短期里，金融总量因子的变动对人均GDP增长率变动产生正向影响，金融融资结构因子和金融效率因子的变动对人均GDP增长率变动存在负向影响。最后，本文立足于现实情况，将实证结果与理论分析进行对比分析，提出以下几点建议：优化金融产业结构，提高金融服务非国有经济水平；解决现实问题，提高金融市场发展的质量；构建功能互补的金融体系，提高金融效率。
[Abstract]:Whether the financial structure of a country or region for the local economic development effectively to provide financial services, has received extensive attention in academic circles, a lot of literatures show that the financial structure has a positive effect on economic growth, but on a regional study, most confined to the study of financial development and economic growth, specific to Zhejiang Province, many scholars only from a simple linear relationship between total financial or financial intermediary unilaterally to study the financial development and financial structure and economic growth, a comprehensive consideration of the bank, securities, insurance and financial structure of the currency, and discuss their long-term and short-term relationship between.2012 years of economic growth in Zhejiang Province National countdown and by all disputes, Zhejiang Province Economic and financial are at the leading level in the country, this shows that the financial structure of Zhejiang province. May to some extent There is some imbalance between economic growth and economic growth. Therefore, according to the shortcomings of existing research, this paper innovatively integrated the financial structure of bank, securities, insurance and currency to examine the long and short term effects of Zhejiang's financial structure on economic growth.
Based on the domestic and foreign related literature and theories, the theoretical research and the index of regional financial structure in the literature selection problems, and put forward the research methods and the selection of financial structure indicators improved the previous research in Zhejiang province; secondly, the related theories of borrowing in foreign countries financial and economic growth, combined with the actual the financial and economic situation, the conduction mechanism of the effect of financial structure and economic growth were analyzed; then, based on the theoretical analysis of financial structure and economic development of Zhejiang Province, analyses the situation of the statistical base. Finally, using principal component analysis method is introduced into the three financial structure factor score (financial total factor score. Financing structure factor scores, factor scores), financial efficiency and then Granger causality test rate growth and per capita GDP, VEC model and generalized impulse The response function analysis is used to examine the long and short term effects of Zhejiang's financial structure on economic growth, and the direction, degree and lag of the impact. Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, the following conclusions can be drawn.
A total financial structure can be based on the financial function of the savings rate, savings investment conversion rate, the marginal productivity of capital and entrepreneurial innovation activities, and the impact of capital accumulation and technological innovation, so as to promote the economic growth. The financing structure can be obtained by optimizing the economic structure to promote economic growth.
Two, bank dominated financial system in Zhejiang province is the financial, although the financial structure has been well developed and higher than the national average, but the direct financing ability needs to be improved; although the level of economic growth has been at the forefront of the country, but the economic structure does not achieve the optimal structure of economic development needs.
Three, the financial total factor score, financing structure and financial efficiency factor scores, factor scores are the Granger cause of economic growth; in the long run, showed the reverse changes in the relationship between financial factors and total financial financing structure factor and the growth rate of per capita GDP, between financial efficiency factor and GDP per capita growth rate showed the same change the relationship between; in the short term, the financial total factor changes on GDP per capita growth rate has a positive impact, financing structure factor and financial efficiency of the change of the factor of GDP per capita growth rate has a negative impact.
Finally, based on the actual situation, empirical results and theoretical analysis are compared and analyzed, put forward the following suggestions: optimize the structure of financial industry, improve the financial service level of non state-owned economy; to solve practical problems and improve the quality of financial market development; construction of complementary functions of the financial system, improve financial efficiency.

【学位授予单位】：浙江理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.7;F127

【参考文献】