我国不同时期财政政策的产业结构优化效应

发布时间：2018-01-23 06:16

本文关键词： TVTP-MS-FAVAR 财政政策产业结构优化　出处：《财政研究》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着全球经济周期明显加快,日益复杂的外部经济环境导致了财政政策对产业结构优化在不同时期产生差异性影响,以往常参数计量模型研究的财政政策在产业结构调整中长期不变的调控效果严重缺乏实际意义。基于此,本文构建了带有时变转换概率的因子扩展马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型,并采用两步骤MLE估计方法研究了不同时期我国财政政策对产业结构优化的动态效应,研究结果发现:(1)在经济萧条时期,以减少财政支出为主要操作工具、增加税收为辅的紧缩型财政政策,结合提高教育支出占比、降低投资性支出占比、降低营业税占比、提高增值税占比的财政政策操作组合,更利于产业结构优化。(2)在经济繁荣时期,以减少税收为主要操作工具、增加财政支出为辅的宽松型财政政策,结合提高科技支出占比、降低投资性支出占比、提高增值税占比、降低消费税占比的财政政策操作组合,更利于产业结构优化。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the global economic cycle, the increasingly complex external economic environment has led to the impact of fiscal policy on industrial structure optimization in different periods. The effect of the fiscal policy studied by the usual parametric measurement model in the adjustment of industrial structure for a long period of time is seriously lacking in practical significance. In this paper, an extended Markov region transformation vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probability is constructed. The dynamic effects of China's fiscal policies on industrial structure optimization in different periods are studied by using two-step MLE estimation method. The results show that: 1) in the period of economic depression. To reduce fiscal expenditure as the main operating tool, increase tax as a supplementary austerity fiscal policy, combined with increasing the proportion of education expenditure, reduce the proportion of investment expenditure, reduce the proportion of business tax. To improve the ratio of value-added tax fiscal policy operation combination, more conducive to industrial structure optimization. In the economic boom period, tax reduction as the main operating tool, increase fiscal expenditure as a supplement of the loose fiscal policy. The combination of fiscal policy operation combination of improving the proportion of science and technology expenditure, reducing the proportion of investment expenditure, increasing the proportion of value-added tax and reducing the proportion of consumption tax is more conducive to the optimization of industrial structure.
【作者单位】：河北金融学院金融创新与风险管理研究中心;河北金融学院学报编辑部;
【基金】：2017年河北金融学院金融创新与风险管理研究中心开放基金重点项目“新常态下河北省科技、金融、产业三融合联动机制构建”(项目批准号:2017JDKF011) 2017年河北省科技金融协同创新中心开放基金项目“新常态下促进河北省科技金融产业三融合模式分析”(项目批准号:STFCIC201702)
【分类号】：F121.3;F812.0
【正文快照】： 一、问题提出近年来,我国产业结构发展失衡的弊端频现,传统工业产能过剩、高新技术产业产能不足、工业化生态和资源环境恶劣等一系列产业结构不合理问题对国民经济发展产生了严重的阻碍作用,这一“时代性特征”标志着我国进入了经济新常态时期,该时期即是Clark(1940)所谓的经

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