经济结构转变与增长实现——基于中国省份经济结构动态空间模型的分析

发布时间：2018-01-23 09:07

本文关键词： 新结构经济学长短期效应动态交互动态空间模型　出处：《经济评论》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：重拾结构转变引致经济增长论题,收集1978-2015年中国省级面板数据,从新结构经济学视角审视经济结构互动系统,利用动态空间增长效应模型识别"短期直接与间接效应"、"长期直接与间接效应"矩阵,深入探讨了结构与增长作用关系的机制和内涵。结果表明:空间尺度上,经济结构增长效应存在空间系统关联;时间断面上,结构的长、短期效应差异显著,且样本期内"富者愈富"的空间效应趋向仍然存在,需理顺增长与结构的互促关系;时空维度上,动态空间溢出效应分解指出各经济结构变量的表现更为显著的是短期特征,长期稳定可能还未出现,经济分析应注重短期阐释而非仅有长期探讨。影响机制兼具复杂性和动态性,要求结构调整需系统考虑时空协调性。
[Abstract]:In order to review the interactive system of economic structure from the perspective of new structural economics, this paper collects the provincial panel data from 1978 to 2015 on the topic of economic growth caused by structural transformation. The "short-term direct and indirect effects" and the "long-term direct and indirect effects" matrix are identified by using the dynamic spatial growth effect model. The mechanism and connotation of the relationship between structure and growth are discussed in depth. The results show that the effect of economic structure growth is related to spatial system on spatial scale. On the time section, there are significant differences between the long and short term effects of the structure, and the spatial effect of "the richer the richer" still exists in the sample period, so it is necessary to straighten out the mutual promoting relationship between the growth and the structure. In space-time dimension, the decomposition of dynamic spatial spillover effect indicates that the short-term characteristics of the economic structural variables are more significant, and long-term stability may not appear. Economic analysis should focus on short-term interpretation rather than long-term discussion. The influence mechanism is complex and dynamic, which requires structural adjustment to consider space-time coordination systematically.
【作者单位】：湘潭大学商学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科基金项目“中国区域人口流向空间匹配模式及其局部双边增长效应研究”(项目编号:15YJCZH063) 湖南省教育厅优秀青年项目“人口流动的流向变化、空间模式与地区经济发展关系研究”(项目编号:15B246) 湖南省社科项目“人口流向、结构转变与区域增长关系的空间尺度研究”(项目编号:14YBA357)的资助
【分类号】：F121;F124.1
【正文快照】： 一、引言与选题缘起长期以来,增长实现研究较为注重长期分析;在要素和空间维度,因结构调整导致的短期波动并未受到应有的重视。近年来,经济结构作为“深层因素”决定增长的实现开始受到“新结构经济学”的关注(林毅夫,2010,2014)。为谋求区域协调和增长稳定,推进结构调整和

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