甘肃省经济—能源—环境（3E）系统协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 08:59

本文关键词： 经济-能源-环境(3E)系统协调度可持续发展甘肃省　出处：《兰州大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：全面、可持续发展是世界各国和全人类的共同目标和不懈追求,经济、能源、环境可持续发展是可持续发展的重要和不可或缺的一部分。经济发展离不开能源和环境的支撑,经济发展和能源使用产生了严重的环境问题,能源短缺和环境恶化制约着经济的进一步、健康发展。能否实现3E系统协调、可持续发展,在很大程度上决定着全面可持续发展的进程。基于此,本研究以经济落后、贫困问题突出、生态脆弱、环境问题严重的甘肃省作为研究区,利用1985-2011年间相关统计数据,主要开展了以下几方面的工作,并得出相应的结论： (1)运用灰色关联模型,分析了工业污染物排放量与能源消费量的灰色关联度。发现工业污染物排放量与煤炭和电力消耗量关联度较高,与石油和天然气的关联度较小。 (2)采用EKC假说计量模型,分析了收入与污染关系。结果表明污染与收入关系因污染物不同而不同。工业废气和SO2排放量随着收入提高总体上上升,而工业废水、固废和粉(烟)尘排放量总体上下降。环境与经济之间的EKC曲线关系在甘肃未能得以体现。 (3)将环境压力视为人口数量、收入(人均GDP)和污染物排放强度三种因素综合作用的结果,运用完全结构分解模型分解、分析了三种因素对环境压力变化的贡献。结果表明人口增长加重了环境压力,但其影响逐渐减弱,经济增长也加大了环境压力,而技术进步有助于降低环境压力。 (4)运用协整、Granger因果检验模型分析了能源消费及其构成与经济增长的关系。发现能源消费与经济增长之间是一种单向的因果关系,经济增长是带动能源消费的格兰杰原因,但能源消费并不必然促进经济增长。 (5)采用结构分解分析法,将能源强度变化分解为结构效应和技术效应,测算了两种效应对能源强度变化的贡献。能源强度持续下降主要源于能源效率(以第二产业为主)的提高,而经济结构调整的贡献较低。1985-2011年间,技术份额累计贡献106.42%,结构份额累计贡献-6.42%；第二产业的效率份额累积贡献达到71.63%,第三产业的效率份额累积贡献达到34.81%；第三产业能源效率提高对能源强度降低的促进作用越来越明显,而第一产业的结构份额和效率份额对能源强度变化的影响较弱。 (6)构建了甘肃3E系统综合发展指标体系,运用主成分分析法、熵权系数法测算了3E综合发展水平。总体上,经济、能源和环境综合发展水平均呈上升趋势,但波动幅度较大。综合发展水平依赖于总量、结构和质量水平共同作用,不同时间段内,总量、结构和质量水平对经济、能源和环境综合发展水平的贡献各不相同。 (7)在(6)的基础上,采用基于回归分析法的系统协调度模型,评价了甘肃3E系统协调发展水平。结果表明3E系统内任意两子系统的协调度,以及3E系统协调水平总体上均较差,且波动变化大、稳定性差。在3E系统中,只要任意一个子系统的发展水平与另两个不一致、不能匹配时,系统协调度就会保持较低的水平；只有当三者的发展水平均较高且较一致、相互匹配时,或者三者的发展水平均提高且提高的速度较为一致时,系统协调度会不断提高,保持在较高的水平。
[Abstract]:Sustainable development is an important and indispensable part of sustainable development . Economic development is inseparable from energy and environment , economic development and energy use have serious environmental problems , energy shortage and environmental degradation restrict the further and healthy development of economy . ( 1 ) The grey relation between the emission of industrial pollutants and the consumption of energy is analyzed by using the grey correlation model . It is found that the correlation between the emission of industrial pollutants and the consumption of coal and electricity is high , which is related to the correlation of oil and gas . ( 2 ) Using EKC hypothesis , the relationship between income and pollution is analyzed . The results show that the relationship between pollution and income is different because of the different pollutants . Industrial waste gas and SO2 emissions generally decrease with the increase of income , while industrial waste water , solid waste and dust ( smoke ) dust emissions generally fall . The relationship between environment and economy is not reflected in Gansu . ( 3 ) The environmental pressure is regarded as the result of three factors of population quantity , income ( per capita GDP ) and emission intensity of pollutants . The contribution of three factors to environmental pressure change is analyzed by using full structural decomposition model . ( 4 ) The relationship between energy consumption and its composition and economic growth has been analyzed by using co - integration and causality test model . It is found that energy consumption and economic growth are a one - way causal relationship , and economic growth is the reason for driving energy consumption , but energy consumption does not necessarily promote economic growth . ( 5 ) The energy intensity change is decomposed into structural effects and technical effects by using the structural decomposition analysis method , and the contribution of the two effects to the energy intensity change is calculated . The cumulative contribution of energy intensity is mainly derived from the improvement of energy efficiency ( based on the second industry ) , and the contribution of the economic structure adjustment is low . The cumulative contribution of the technical share in the second industry has reached 71.63 % , the cumulative contribution of the efficiency share of the tertiary industry has reached 34.81 % . ( 6 ) The comprehensive development index system of the 3E system of Gansu was constructed , and the comprehensive development level of 3E was calculated by using principal component analysis method and entropy weight coefficient method . Overall , the comprehensive development level of economy , energy and environment increased , but the fluctuation was large . The comprehensive development level depended on the combination of total quantity , structure and quality level . The contribution of total , structure and quality level to the economic , energy and environmental comprehensive development level was different in different time period . ( 7 ) On the basis of ( 6 ) , a system coordination degree model based on regression analysis method is adopted to evaluate the coordination development level of the 3E system in Gansu . The results show that the coordination degree of any two subsystems in the 3E system and the overall level of the 3E system are poor , and the fluctuation is large and the stability is poor . In the 3E system , the system coordination degree can be kept low as long as the development level of any one subsystem is high and the development level of the three systems is improved and the speed is improved .

【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;X24

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